Kentucky Derby Futures Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2022 Kentucky Derby is set for May 7 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Derby Futures Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $3 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 7, 2022
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Futures Odds: Click Here
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Handicapping
Every year almost 400 thoroughbred horses are nominated to run in the Kentucky Derby, but ultimately no more than 20 of those will make it to the starting gate in May.
From mid-September to mid-April, nominated horses will run in a series of qualifying races dubbed “The Road to the Kentucky Derby.” There are 48 races in all, most of which are run in the US, but also include a handful of races in the UK, Japan and the United Arab Emirates.
Typically any one horse will run in 1 to 4 of these races, and in the end the 20 with the most points will qualify to make the 1 1/4 miles Run for the Roses.
Months before the big race, sports books like Bovada offer future bet odds on these horses. Each week here at Capperspicks, we will take a look at four of these potential Derby champions. Today the focus is on the the four horses that sit on the top of the Derby leaderboard. These horses have already accumulated enough points to make the Derby field.
Future odds listed here are provided by Bovada’s racebook at the time of posting.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Free Pick & Handicapping: Classic Causeway Race Odds: 16-1
Classic Causeway sits at the top of the Derby leaderboard with 66 points, with the bulk of those coming with a win in the (G2) Tampa Bay Derby. Prior to that he picked up points by winning the (G3) Sam F Davis Stakes, also at Tampa Bay.
He’s been very consistent in his last two, taking the field wire-to-wire in both and registering the same 104 Equibase speed figure.
The concern might be that his connections have chosen to take a bit easier route to the Derby in the Florida preps by running at Tampa Downs rather than in Gulfstream Park races such as the (G3) Holy Bull Stakes and (G2) Fountain of Youth Stakes. As such he has yet to win past 1 1/16 miles, and from here on out the competition will get tougher.
Possible next start: (G1) Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, April 9.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Free Pick & Handicapping: Epicenter Race Odds: 10-1
Although Epicenter sits second on the leaderboard with 64 points, he’s actually one of three co-favourites in the Bovada future odds.
Two starts back he did all the dirty work to set a very contested pace in the (G3) Lecomte Stakes, fighting off three separate challengers at various points before being nailed at the wire by a 28-1 shot that snuck up the rail.
He came back from that effort and got a slightly easier time of it to win the (G2) Risen Star Stakes by more than 2 lengths against a somewhat better field.
Possible next start: (G1) Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 29.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Free Pick & Handicapping: Un Ojo Race Odds: 50-1
Un Ojo grabbed his spot in the Derby field with a upset win in the (G2) Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park at odds of 75-1. In retrospect, he was probably a big underlay as he had put up some decent performances in previous races, including running second in the (G2) Withers at Aqueduct.
One reason for the lack of respect from the betting public in the Rebel is that although he was getting some good results in previous races, he wasn’t all that fast. The 91 Equibase speed figure he gained in the Rebel race was a 14-point improvement over his previous lifetime best.
So the question is, is he a horse that is improving at this point by leaps-and-bounds, or was the Rebel score a one-off fluke?
Possible next start: (G1) Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 2.
2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Free Pick & Handicapping: Simplification Race Odds: 14-1
Tied for third on the board with 54 points, Simplification had all kinds of trip trouble but managed to get up for second two starts back in the (G3) Holy Bull Stakes. So there maybe was some justice in his last out win in the (G2) Fountain of Youth, a particularly good result when you consider he was six-wide off the turn.
At the same time, he’s making things harder on himself with slow starts that then cause him to have to negotiate traffic and get past horses that are probably not as good as he is. That could be a concern in the 20-horse Derby field.
Possible next start: (G1) Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, April 2.
Here’s My 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Free Pick.
Two of these horses are confirmed front-runners in Classic Causeway and Epicenter, while Simplification and Un Ojo have been winning from off the pace. In the case of Un Ojo, he in fact has been coming from way back in the field.
Given my druthers in the Derby, I’ll take the front-runners over the closers every time. There are just too many things that can go wrong in the large Derby field when you start your race in the back half of the field.
While on paper Classic Causeway has slightly faster speed figures, I lean toward Epicenter in this group. I’ll admit I had some doubts about his ability to handle distance, but his win in the 1 1/8 mile Risen Star erased those. I’m really looking forward to seeing what he does in the 1 3/16 miles Louisiana Derby.
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