Brent Sedo – Last Updated on May 4, 2022 6:48 pm
Kentucky Derby Closers Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2022 Kentucky Derby Closers Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2022 Kentucky Derby is set for May 7 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
Kentucky Derby Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $3 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 7
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
2022 Kentucky Derby Closers Handicapping
The advent of the points system for qualification to the Kentucky Derby has changed the handicapping process for the race in a couple of different ways. One of the most significant has to do the lack of closers – horses rallying from the back of the pack – to win the race.
2013 was the first year of the points system, and that year Orb closed from 16th place to win. In every year since then on average the winner was within two lengths of the lead 1/4 mile into the 1 1/4 mile race, with three of those winners on the lead at that point. By comparison, in the previous 23 years before the points system, only two winners were in first or second place 1/4 mile into the race.
That being said, closers do get into the money and so have to be considered when filling out exotic tickets such as exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Here’s a look at four such horses to consider.
Odds listed here are provided by Bovada’s racebook.
2022 Kentucky Derby Closers Free Pick & Handicapping: Mo Donegal Race Odds: 10-1
In all five of his races so far, Mo Donegal has been in the back half of the pack at the 1/4 mile or 1/2 mile call and has won three of those and finished third twice. In his recent win in the (G1) Wood Memorial he was dead last at the half-mile in the field of eight.
The advantage to being at the back was that jockey Joel Rosario was able to get him a spot on the rail, and he rode that position into mid-stretch where he switched out to the two path and then ran down the pacesetter to get the win by a neck.
The Wood was run at 1 1/8 miles, and not only did he show good acceleration in the stretch, he also seemed to indicate he would have no problem carrying his speed and extra 1/8 in the Derby.
2022 Kentucky Derby Closers Free Pick & Handicapping: Smile Happy Race Odds: 14-1
More a mid-pack runner than a deep closer, Smile Happy actually showed a bit more early speed in his most recent race, the (G1) Blue Grass Stakes, than he had in previous starts as he was fourth in the field of 11 at the 1/2 mile mark, just 2 1/2 lengths off the lead.
Although he did manage to get to the front in the stretch, he eventually settled for second. Prior to the Blue Grass he was 7th, 5th and 6th in his races at the 1/4 and 1/2 mile mark, rallying to win the latter two and running second in the other.
2022 Kentucky Derby Closers Free Pick & Handicapping: Tiz The Bomb Race Odds: 16-1
Although he scored his maiden win going-wire-to-wire in his second lifetime start, that race is the only time in his eight-race career that Tiz The Bomb has been on the lead at either the 1/2 mile or 3/4 mile point of the race.
He was able to get to the front last out in the (G3) Jeff Ruby Steaks by the time they straightened for home, and back in November in the (G1) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf he was ninth entering the straight and then rallied all the way up to grab second at the wire.
What’s significant for him is that the Derby is run in a dirt track, and in two lifetime races on a dry dirt track he was eighth into the stretch and finished seventh, and seventh into the stretch and finished seventh.
2022 Kentucky Derby Closers Free Pick & Handicapping: Tawny Port Race Odds: 50-1
In only one of his five lifetime races – three of which he has won – has Tawny Port been as close as second by the 1/2 or 3/4 mile point, and not since his first-out maiden win has he been on the lead as they entered the stretch.
While he did go from third to first in the stretch last out in winning the (G3) Lexington Stakes, the time for that race came back relatively slow. And since he needed that “last chance” race to gain enough Derby points to make the field, the Derby will be his third start in five weeks, compared to other top contenders who will be well rested, in some cases making their first start in five weeks.
Here’s My 2022 Kentucky Derby Closers Free Pick.
In handicapping the four horses above as the closer with the best chance of getting in the money, I find it easy to toss Tiz The Bomb and Tawny Port. I’m just not convinced Tiz The Bomb is as good racing on dirt as he is on turf and synthetic, and I don’t think Tawny Port is fast enough to win the race.
Of the remaining two, Smile Happy has some upside in that I don’t think he’ll be too far back of the leaders in the early part of the race and is less likely to have to deal with traffic trouble. But he has disappointed as the beaten favourite in his last two starts, and I have doubts about him getting the 1 1/4 mile distance.
That leaves Mo Donegal, who I definitely will be using on my exotic tickets. I think he took a big step forward from running third in the Holy Bull Stakes to winning the Wood, increasing his Brisnet speed rating by almost 20 points, and running down the previously unbeaten Early Voting for the win.
Full Field: Kentucky Derby Odds
(Post position to be drawn on Monday)
- Epicenter 4-1
- Messier 13-2
- Taiba 13-2
- Zandon 8-1
- Mo Donegal 10-1
- White Abarrio 11-1
- Charge It 14-1
- Smile Happy 14-1
- Tiz The Bomb 16-1
- Cyberknife 18-1
- Early Voting 18-1
- Simplification 20-1
- Zosos 20-1
- Barber Road 28-1
- Crown Pride 33-1
- Tawny Port 50-1
- Happy Jack 80-1
- Summer Is Tomorrow 80-1
- Un Ojo 100-1
Note that Classic Causeway is in the field but not listed. Current track odds are 30-1.
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