Kentucky Long Shots Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2020 Kentucky Long Shots Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2020 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of four long shot contenders.
Kentucky Derby Long Shots Preview and Prediction
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $3,000,000
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: September 5
- Post Time: 7:01 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shots
While it is likely Tiz The Law will be going off as the lowest-priced Kentucky Derby favourite since Arazi was 1-9 in 1992, nothing is guaranteed in horse racing, including a win by a heavy favourite.
After all, Arazi finished ninth that year, and we only have to look back to 2019 when Maximum Security was DQ’d and Country House gained the win at odds of 65-1. So it’s always handy to consider a long shot or two in Derby handicapping.
At the same time, if in fact things unfold as expected and Tiz The Law wins the race, then the only real betting value will be the exactas, trifectas and superfectas. With that in mind, here’s a look at four Derby contenders to consider in exotic bets to help boost your return on investment.
Note that King Guillermo would make this list, but as of Thursday it’s believed he will be scratched out of the race with an injury.
Odds listed here are provided by Bovada’s racebook.
2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Free Pick & Handicapping: Max Player Race Odds: 12-1
In two consecutive races Max Player has gone up against Tiz The Law and was beaten handily, finishing third in both the (G1) Belmont Stakes and (G1) Travers. There are a couple things, however, that put him in play here to grab a piece of the money.
For one, neither of the two horses that finished second in those races are in the Derby. For two, he’ll be one of three horses in the race that have proven ability to race the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles as they did in the Travers.
And three, despite the loss, his finishing time in the Travers of just over 2:02 would have been good enough to win four of the last five Kentucky Derbys.
His trainer is Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the call to ride.
2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Free Pick & Handicapping: Money Moves Race Odds: 18-1
Make no mistake, Money Moves is taking a huge step up in class here, as a lightly raced colt that will make his stakes debut in the Derby. And until Justify managed the trick a couple years ago, it had been more than 100 years since a horse that didn’t race at age 2 won the Derby.
That being said, this is a colt that has shown significant improvement in each of his three career races. He won the first two, and last out was gaining with every stride on the winner going 1 1/8 miles before running out of track and settling for second by a neck. He may be even better going longer.
Most horses that win the Derby are running within six lengths of the winner with a half-mile to go, and even closer or on the lead with a quarter-mile to go. Money Moves is a horse that likes to be near the front, and has drawn an excellent post position to make that happen.
Todd Pletcher trains, Johnny Velazquez will be in the irons.
2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Free Pick & Handicapping: NY Traffic Race Odds: 17-2
While not a huge long shot in the Bovada odds, the Churchill Downs oddsmaker has NY Traffic at 20-1 in the morning line. He could very well be in that territory when the gates open on Saturday and the running begins.
He doesn’t win much, with only two victories in nine lifetime starts, but he has been in the money in seven of those nine, and comes into the Derby with three straight runner-up finishes.
Normally one would shy away from horses that seem to suffer from “second-itis”, but for the purpose of filling out exotic bets he can’t be ignored.
His trainer is Saffie Joseph Jr. veteran Paco Lopez is set to ride.
2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Free Pick & Handicapping: Thousand Words Race Odds: 6-1
Just like NY Traffic, there’s a big discrepancy between the Bovada odds on Thousand Words and the Churchill morning line, where he’s 15-1.
This is a California-based colt who has kinda flown under the radar behind some bigger West Coast names like Derby second-favourite Honor AP – who he just happened to beat last time out – and Nadal, who was cruising undefeated toward the Derby before he was injured.
The truth is he’s only had one real bad race out of seven, and that was run over a sloppy track he obviously didn’t like.
He’s another Bob Baffert trainee, and he’ll be ridden by Florent Geroux.
Here’s my 2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Free Pick.
Okay, let’s say for the sake of argument the gate opens on Saturday and Tiz The Law stumbles and throws his rider. Which of these are then in with the best shot to steal the win over others like Honor AP or Authentic?
If asked I’d go with Max Player. He’s been very consistent speed-wise over his last three races, with three consecutive triple-digit Equibase speed figures. He’s battle tested in big races, and he should have no problem with the distance.
Keep in mind however, that none of these horses have to win the race – the point here is to find value in the exactas, tris and supers in a race with a heavy favourite.
What do you think of our 2020 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Race Odds & Predictions? Weigh in below with a comment. We welcome your feedback.
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