Kentucky Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2020 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2020 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Derby Preview and Prediction
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $3,000,000
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: September 5
- Post Time: 7:01 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
2020 Kentucky Derby Handicapping
Despite the fact it’ll be the first Saturday in September rather than the first Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby tradition continues as 16 runners are expected to go to the gate for the 146th running of the “most exciting two minutes in sports”.
Open to horses aged three, the Derby is run at 1 1/4 miles on the Churchill Downs dirt track. For the 2020 edition, the field includes one solid favourite, a couple strong secondary contenders and several others looking to score a big upset.
Odds listed here are provided by Bovada’s racebook.
2020 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Tiz The Law Race Odds: 20-33
The lowest-priced morning line Derby favourite in 31 years, Tiz The Law is carrying a heavy weight of expectation, all of it well deserved.
He comes to the Derby on a four-race win streak and with a record of six wins in seven lifetime starts, with all six of his most recent races at the graded-stakes level.
Typically one of the biggest handicapping questions for the Derby is how the horses will handle racing 1 1/4 miles for the first time. But with changes to the 2020 racing schedule, he already answered that question by winning the 1 1/4 mile (G1) Travers Stakes by more than five lengths.
Notably, his only defeat came at Churchill Downs in the (G2) Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but that race was run over a sloppy track, and there’s no rain in the forecast for Saturday at Louisville. He’s the one to beat.
He’s trained by Barclay Tagg, who won the 2003 Derby with Funny Cide. Jockey Manny Franco is looking for his first Derby win.
2020 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Honor A.P. Race Odds: 23-4
The main challenger is no slouch, as Honor A.P. has been first or second in all five of his lifetime starts, including a win in the (G1) Santa Anita Derby in June.
Last out he was beaten by 3/4 length as the heavy favourite in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar by a rival he’ll be facing again on Saturday.
While he doesn’t have a ton of distance in his pedigree, his sire Honor Code did run third in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup at 1 1/4 miles, and his dam was a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. This will be his first start outside of southern California.
Trainer John Sherriffs and jockey Mike Smith teamed up to win the 2005 Derby with Giacomo at odds of 50-1. Smith is going for his third Derby win.
2020 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Authentic Race Odds: 17-2
Another with a solid record of four wins and a second-place finish in five lifetime starts, Authentic comes to the Derby off a photo-finish win in the (G1) Haskell Stakes. Prior to that he was beaten by 2 3/4 lengths by Honor A.P. in the SA Derby.
There are legitimate distance concerns, as his sire was a sprinter that raced primarily under one mile, as was his grandsire on his dam’s side. He was losing ground late in the 1 1/8 mile Haskell and needs to show he can get the extra distance.
Bob Baffert looks for his sixth Derby win as a trainer, while jockey John Velazquez tries for his third.
2020 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Thousand Words Race Odds: 18-1
I featured Thousand Words in an earlier piece on Kentucky Derby Long Shots, based on the fact he was 15-1 in the Churchill morning line while Bovada had him at 6-1. Since then the Bovada odds have changed, but he’s in with a big shot nonetheless.
He was well beaten by both Authentic and Honor A.P. back in February in the (G2) San Felipe Stakes, and next out was 11th over a sloppy track in the Oaklawn Stakes in April. But he’s made big strides in his last two races, and last out actually beat Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief Stakes.
Great-grandsire Unbridled won the 1990 Derby, grandsire Empire Maker ran second in the 2003 Derby and sire Pioneerof the Nile was also second in the 2009 race.
He’s another Bob Baffert trainee, jockey Florent Geroux is going for his first Derby win.
Here’s my 2020 Kentucky Derby Free Pick.
By most handicapping metrics, this is Tiz The Law’s race to lose. He might be facing a bit tougher field than he has before, and coming back from the Travers in just under 30 days is a bit of a challenge.
But on form, running style and class, I expect him to take over in the stretch and win by at least a couple lengths.
At such low odds, this is a race where you have to find value in the exotic bets, and I think Thousand Words and long shot Max Player are worth the risk underneath in the exacta. I’ll also put Tiz The Law on top in the trifecta and use those two as well as Honor A.P and late-running Sole Volante all in the second and third-place spots.
Full Field: Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
- Tiz The Law 20-33
- Honor A.P. 23-4
- Authentic 17-2
- Thousand Words 18-1
- NY Traffic 22-1
- Max Player 33-1
- Sole Volante 33-1
- Enforceable 40-1
- Major Fed 45-1
- Money Moves 50-1
- Attachment Rate 50-1
- Storm The Court 50-1
- South Bend 66-1
- Mr. Big News 80-1
- Necker Island 100-1
- Winning Impression 100-1
What do you think of our 2020 Kentucky Derby Race Odds & Predictions? Weigh in below with a comment. We welcome your feedback.
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