Turf Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2020 Turf is set for November 7 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Preview and Prediction
- Race: Breeders’ Cup Turf
- Purse: $4 million
- Track: Keeneland Race Course
- Date: November 7
- Post Time: 4:33 PM (ET)
- Live: Breeders’ Cup Odds: Click Here
2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf Handicapping
The second-to-last event of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup World Championships Saturday afternoon is the $4 million Turf, run at a demanding 1 1/2 miles.
Open to horses aged three and older, European bred-or-based horses have been prominent in the Turf, winning six of the last 10 years. But last year it was the US-based Bricks And Mortar capping a stellar racing career with the Turf win as the even-money favorite.
United at 52-1 ran second, paying $25 for a $2 place bet, and triggering a $136 exacta.
Odds listed here are provided by Bovada’s racebook.
2020 Turf Free Pick & Handicapping: Magical Race Odds: 11-4
Tough Irish-bred mare Magical has made 12 consecutive starts at the Group 1 level in Europe and has won six of those, with five of those in races against males. In her career so far she’s banked more than $5 million.
Last out she seemed to struggle a bit with soft ground in the Champions Stakes at Royal Ascot and finished third, her worst showing in five starts this year. Prior to that she won the Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes by 3/4 lengths on a track rated good, going 1 1/4 miles.
It is perhaps notable that she’s only 1-for-5 at the 1 1/2 miles distance, with two runner-up finishes.
Trainer Aiden O’Brien has won the BC Turf five times, as has jockey Ryan Moore.
2020 Turf Free Pick & Handicapping: Tarnawa Race Odds: 7-2
Four-year-old Irish filly Tarnawa comes into the BC Turf on a three-race winning streak, the last two of those in Group 1 races in France.
In both of those she sat back off the pace and then moved to the outside into the stretch to unleash a strong kick, getting up to win the 1 1/4 miles Prix de l’Opera Longines by a neck, but opening up on the field in the 1 1/2 miles Qatar Prix Vermeille by three lengths.
She’s 3-for-4 at the distance in her career, but faces male runners here for the first time.
Trainer Dermot Weld has had a tough time at the Breeders’ Cup over the years, with no wins in 16 starts. Jockey Christophe Soumillon won the BC Turf back in 2005.
2020 Turf Free Pick & Handicapping: Mogul Race Odds: 4-1
A three-year-old UK bred colt, Mogul has made five consecutive starts at 1 1/2 miles and has won two of those, finishing third in the other.
While he hasn’t been facing the highest level of competition as others in here, he took a big step forward last out to win the Gran Prix du Paris at 1 1/2 miles over firm ground at Longchamp. He has the task here of taking on older horses for the first time in his career.
He’s another Aiden O’Brien trainee, French jockey Pierre-Charles Boudot makes his Breeders’ Cup debut.
2020 Turf Free Pick & Handicapping: Channel Maker Race Odds: 10-1
Front-running Ontario-bred gelding Channel Maker has won more than $2.5 million in his 36-race career, but he’s struggled to find the winner’s circle since finishing 12th in this race last year, crossing the wire out of the money in five straight after that.
But he seems to have regained form recently, winning two in a row including the (G1) Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga and the (G1) Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park, both in wire-to-wire fashion racing 1 1/2 miles.
For his career he’s won four of 10 at the distance, with two runner-up finishes.
Trainer Bill Mott has won the BC Turf twice, the last of those way back in 1992. Jockey Manny Franco goes for his second career BC win.
Here’s My 2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf Free Pick.
One important factor when handicapping European turf runners in the Breeders’ Cup is track conditions. European turf tends to be softer than what is typical on North American grass surfaces, and the Euros sometimes struggle with the firmer ground. You can note that in the past performance information for favourite Magical, 24 of her 26 races – and all of her wins – have been run on what is considered “wet” turf, meaning good, soft or heavy.
All that being said, I’m going to play Tarnawa here for the win. There is some concern that she’s taking on males for the first time, but I don’t think the male runners are particularly strong in this race.
I like her record at the distance and her two recent wins, she seems to like firmer ground, and I think there will be a little bit of speed up front here that should play to her favour when they start to kick for home.
She’s listed at 6-1 in the Keeneland morning line odds, which seems a fair price. I’ll use Magical and Channel Maker in the exacta.
Full Field: Turf Betting Odds
- Magical 11-4
- Tarnawa 7-2
- Lord North 15-2
- Mogul 4-1
- United 10-1
- Channel Maker 10-1
- Arklow 14-1
- Mehdaayih 16-1
- Red King 33-1
- Donjah 40-1
What do you think of our 2020 Turf Race Odds & Predictions? Weigh in below with a comment. We welcome your feedback.
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