Free NCAAF Pick: Green Wave vs. Rebels Odds
Looking for Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels Free NCAA College Football Playoff First Round Game picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Green Wave taking on the Rebels on 12/20 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, in Oxford, MS. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Green Wave Rebels free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Tulane Green Wave vs Ole Miss Rebels
(0-0) Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels (0-0)
Date: Dec 20, 2025
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Green Wave +594 | Rebels -935 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Green Wave +17.5 | Rebels -17.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 56.5
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Green Wave Rebels free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Green Wave vs. Rebels Gameday for College Football Playoff First Round Game
The college football postseason kicks off with a first-round playoff matchup that has bettors squinting at the spread and muttering “sure, why not.”
The Tulane Green Wave head into Oxford to face the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, with kickoff set for 3:30 PM on December 20, 2025.
You can watch it on TNT, preferably with multiple screens and questionable bankroll decisions already made.
Tulane enters ranked 17th in the AP Poll, sporting an impressive 11-2 record that looks great on paper and slightly less intimidating when you remember the conference jump they’re making here.
Still, the Green Wave has done exactly what they were supposed to do down the stretch, stacking wins over North Texas and Charlotte while quietly cashing tickets for anyone willing to ride with them.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, sits comfortably at No. 6 in both the AP and Coaches Poll, checking in at 11-1 and looking every bit like a playoff team that doesn’t want to be bothered by a Group of Five crash party.
The Rebels have been dominant at home and are fresh off a postseason win over Duke in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, because of course they were.
These teams just met back on September 20, 2025, and Ole Miss handled Tulane with ease, rolling to a 45-10 win. The Rebels have won the last three meetings overall, which is great news for favorites and terrible news for anyone hoping this turns into a Cinderella story.
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It’s the College Football Playoff First Round Game, Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels, and the betting public already thinks they know how this one ends.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds & Last 5
From a betting perspective, this line isn’t exactly subtle. Ole Miss comes in with a massive -927 moneyline, basically daring you to tie it into a parlay just to feel something. Tulane sits way out at +605, the classic “this will never happen… but what if?” number that keeps degenerates awake at night.
Tulane has been rolling lately, rattling off wins against North Texas and Charlotte while playing clean, efficient football. They’ve been able to score, control tempo, and avoid mistakes — which is usually enough, just not always against SEC speed in a playoff setting.
Ole Miss closed the regular season strong, including a win over Mississippi State, and hasn’t exactly shown signs of slowing down.
Add in the 45-10 beatdown from the last meeting, and it’s clear why the Rebels are priced like a lock — at least in Vegas’ eyes.
Rebels Stats
Ole Miss has been an offensive machine for most of the season. The Rebels rank 13th nationally in points scored with 447 and sit 4th in passing yards at 3,715.
The rushing attack isn’t flashy but gets the job done, ranking 34th with 2,296 yards, which is more than enough when defenses are already stretched thin.
Defensively, Ole Miss has been opportunistic if not always airtight. They rank 8th in interceptions with seven and 17th in sacks with 25, but they’ve also allowed 241 points, putting them 71st nationally. In other words, they’ll give you chances — they just usually score more than you do.
The Rebels are riding a five-game winning streak, capped by a 38-19 win over Mississippi State. They’ve also padded stats with games like the 49-0 demolition of The Citadel, which didn’t help anyone’s résumé but definitely helped the averages.
At the center of it all is quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has thrown for 3,016 yards this season.
Add in Kewan Lacy’s 1,279 rushing yards, and Ole Miss has balance, depth, and enough firepower to justify every point of that spread.
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Green Wave Stats
Tulane’s offense has quietly been one of the more consistent units in the country. The Green Wave have scored 378 points, ranking 35th nationally, with a balanced attack that includes 3,126 passing yards and 2,226 rushing yards.
They don’t overwhelm you — they just keep moving the chains.
Defensively, Tulane has had some issues, allowing 294 points and ranking 103rd overall. That’s not ideal when stepping into SEC country. The saving grace has been turnovers, where Tulane shines with 15 interceptions and nine fumbles recovered, ranking 16th and 6th respectively. If chaos breaks out, they’re usually involved.
Tulane is riding a five-game winning streak, most recently beating North Texas 34-21 while forcing three interceptions. That opportunistic style has been their calling card all season and will need to show up again in a big way here.
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff leads the offense with 2,862 passing yards and 14 touchdowns, while Javin Gordon adds balance on the ground.
Tulane doesn’t lack confidence — the question is whether that confidence survives four quarters in Oxford.
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Green Wave vs. Rebels QB Matchup
Trinidad Chambliss has been steady and efficient for Ole Miss, throwing for 3,016 yards with 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He doesn’t force much, and that’s usually bad news for underdogs hoping for short fields.
Austin Simmons has seen limited action for the Rebels, posting 680 yards and four touchdowns in six games, though his five interceptions show some volatility if he’s forced into extended duty.
For Tulane, Jake Retzlaff has put together a solid season with 2,862 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He’s capable of making plays, but he’ll be under far more pressure here than he’s seen most of the season.
Brendan Sullivan has been used sparingly, totaling 222 passing yards in backup duty.
If Tulane needs him in this one, something has probably gone very wrong.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels bottom line: This feels like a classic playoff mismatch where Tulane needs turnovers, short fields, and a little SEC chaos.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels Football Betting Trends
- The Green Wave is 8-4 against the spread as an underdog in their last 12 games.
- Tulane has a 12-10 record against the spread after a win in their last 22 games.
- Also, the Rebels have won 21 of their last 22 home games straight up.
- Ole Miss is 27-3 straight up as a favorite in their last 30 games.
- Additionally, the Rebels are 17-13 against the spread after a win in their last 30 games.
- Ole Miss has a 14-10 record against the spread in all games over the past two seasons.
Green Wave Rebels Free Pick: UNDER 56.5
Here is my Green Wave Rebels free pick: Ole Miss brings a productive offense into this matchup, ranking 13th nationally in points scored and putting up 447 points during the regular season.
That firepower naturally inflates totals, but context matters when evaluating how games actually play out.
Also, Tulane’s defense has been leaky at times, ranking 103rd in points allowed and giving up 294 points on the year. On paper, that looks like a green light for scoring, but recent matchups suggest a different pace.
The previous meeting showed how this matchup can tilt toward control rather than chaos.
Besides, when these teams last met, Ole Miss won comfortably 45-10 and the total still stayed under a much higher number of 61.5. That game featured long drives and limited possessions once the Rebels took command.
Ole Miss doesn’t always push tempo when holding an advantage, and Tulane’s offense hasn’t consistently forced shootouts against stronger opponents. That combination can quietly drain scoring chances.
This total feels a bit inflated given how this matchup has played out before. My NCAAF numbers land on Under 56.5, and that’s the total I’m willing to back in a game that could slow down earlier than expected.
Today’s College Football Playoff First Round Game NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
The journey has brought us here.
Let’s finish it together, Rebels.#CFBPlayoff | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/aqohlmwMJ5
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) December 11, 2025
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