Free NCAAF Pick: Bulldogs vs. Longhorns Odds
Looking for Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns Free NCAA Week 9 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Bulldogs taking on the Longhorns on 10/31 at Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, in Austin, TX. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Bulldogs Longhorns matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns
Bulldogs +20.5 | Longhorns -20.5Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Bulldogs Longhorns free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Bulldogs vs. Longhorns Gameday
The Mississippi State Bulldogs visit the No. 11 Texas Longhorns on Saturday, October 31, 2026, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.
Mississippi State enters at 4-3 overall and 2-3 in SEC play under Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight after winning their first 4 games.
Mississippi State’s promising start has turned into a rough October, and Austin isn’t offering much relief.
The Bulldogs lost 23-15 to Oklahoma in their latest outing.
Texas is 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the SEC under Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns have climbed to No. 11 in the national rankings.
Texas beat Ole Miss 34-27 last Saturday.
The Longhorns nearly squandered a 21-point halftime advantage before finishing the job. Sarkisian has plenty to address despite the win.
Texas beat Mississippi State 45-38 in overtime last season. The Longhorns also won 35-13 in their 2024 meeting.
Both teams have plenty riding on this SEC matchup. Texas is trying to strengthen its postseason position, while Mississippi State needs to stop its slide.
It’s Week 9, Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns, hopefully we get a great matchup.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns Odds & Previous Games
Texas is listed at -1508 on the moneyline, with Mississippi State returning +882. The Longhorns are favored by 20.5 points, and the total is 50.5.
That’s a hefty spread for an SEC game. The Longhorns have to win by at least 21 points to cover.
Mississippi State lost to LSU 31-0 and Alabama 56-23. Earlier victories included Missouri 31-24 and South Carolina 41-34.
Texas lost to Florida 27-24 and Oklahoma 27-24. The Longhorns also defeated UTSA 30-6 and Tennessee 20-17.
Mississippi State is 4-3 ATS this season, while Texas is 2-5 against the number.
The Bulldogs have covered 9 of their L12 road games. Texas has won 25 of its L28 home games straight up, although that doesn’t automatically make a big spread attractive.
Texas has finished Under in 16 of its L29 games with totals of 50 or higher. That historical trend adds another consideration to Saturday’s betting number.
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Longhorns Stats
Texas has scored 215 points through 7 games, averaging 30.7 PPG. The Longhorns generate 369.6 total YPG, including 224.7 passing YPG.
Raleek Brown leads the rushing attack with 422 yards and 5 TDs. He’s averaging approximately 5.0 yards per carry.
Ryan Wingo leads the receiving corps with 456 yards. His ability to stretch the field provides Texas with an important offensive weapon.
Texas has plenty of talent, but the offense hasn’t always played like everybody received the same playbook.
Defensively, the Longhorns allow 19.1 PPG and 285.4 total YPG. Opponents average just 107.3 rushing YPG.
Texas has recorded 19 sacks and 6 interceptions. The defensive front has consistently created difficult passing situations for opposing QBs.
Offensive lineman Trevor Goosby and defensive lineman Richard Wesley are out. Edge rusher Colin Simmons is also out, removing an important pass-rushing threat.
Cam Coleman and Hollywood Smothers are available. Their return gives Texas additional offensive options.
Bulldogs Stats
Mississippi State has scored 210 points through 7 games, averaging 30.0 PPG. The Bulldogs generate 439.7 total YPG, including 264.7 passing YPG.
Fluff Bothwell leads the rushing attack with 514 yards and 3 TDs. His foot injury has created some uncertainty around his availability.
Anthony Evans III leads the receivers with 647 yards and 5 TDs. Sanfrisco Magee has added 360 yards and 6 scores.
Defensively, Mississippi State allows 27.7 PPG and 392.0 total YPG. Opponents average 267.4 passing YPG, exposing problems in the secondary.
The Bulldogs have recorded 16 sacks and 4 fumble recoveries. Their ability to generate occasional disruptive plays hasn’t translated into consistent defensive performances.
Linebacker Jalen Smith is out for the season. His absence has weakened the middle of Mississippi State’s defense.
Wide receiver Ayden Williams and offensive lineman DJ Chester are out. Safety Isaac Smith and linebacker Tyler Lockhart are doubtful, creating additional depth concerns.
Bulldogs vs. Longhorns QB Matchup
Arch Manning leads Texas with 1,507 passing yards, 12 TDs and 7 interceptions. His production has been uneven despite the considerable talent surrounding him.
Manning completed 18 of 30 passes for 212 yards against Ole Miss. He threw 2 interceptions but scored twice on the ground.
Texas needs Manning to protect the football more consistently. His mistakes have occasionally turned comfortable situations into unnecessary problems.
Karle Lacey Jr. provides depth behind Manning. He’s seen limited action this season.
Mississippi State will be without Kamario Taylor for the remainder of the season following foot surgery. Taylor threw for 1,460 yards, 17 TDs and 4 interceptions before being shut down.
His absence has forced the Bulldogs to adjust their offense. Replacing that combination of passing production and mobility is no small assignment.
Freshman Parker Puckett is expected to start after handling the offense against Oklahoma. He completed 17 of 24 passes with a TD and an interception in that loss.
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Puckett has thrown for 368 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions this season. His limited experience presents a difficult challenge against an established SEC defense.
Texas has the more experienced starter, while Mississippi State must rely on a freshman still learning to handle SEC defenses. The Bulldogs need Puckett to manage the offense without forcing risky throws.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns bottom line: Texas has the defensive advantage and greater stability at QB, leaving Mississippi State facing a difficult assignment in Austin.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns Football Betting Trends
- The Bulldogs are 12-9 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.
- Mississippi State is 19-9 on the Over/Under after a loss in their last 28 games.
- Also, the Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away games.
- The Longhorns are 25-3 straight up in their last 28 home games.
- Plus, Texas is 25-5 straight up in their last 30 games after a win.
- The Longhorns are 11-16-2 on the Over/Under in their last 29 games with totals of 50 or more.
Bulldogs Longhorns Free Pick: Under 50.5
Here is my Bulldogs Longhorns free pick: I’m betting Under 50.5. Texas is favored by nearly 3 touchdowns, but that doesn’t mean we’re getting 3 touchdowns’ worth of entertainment from both offenses. I expect the Longhorns to control this game without turning it into a scoring contest. Mississippi State has covered 9 of its L12 road games, but staying inside a big spread doesn’t require a pile of points. The Bulldogs can compete against the number while still struggling to finish drives.
Texas can win this game comfortably without doing the Over bettors any favors.
My biggest concern is Texas getting short fields off turnovers. That’s how a game headed for the Under can get ugly in a hurry.
Still, I like the Longhorns to lean on their defense, run the football and keep Mississippi State from finding any rhythm. The Bulldogs don’t have the firepower to force Texas into a track meet.
I’m not paying for a shootout that Mississippi State probably can’t deliver.
Texas can handle business without running up the score, and that’s the angle I’m taking.
Give me Under 50.5.
Today’s Week 9 NCAAF Free Pick
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Texas Longhorns on X
WAKE UP IT’S GAMEDAY 🤘🤘🤘 https://t.co/TYbLv99ISy
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 31, 2026
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