Free NCAAF Pick: Owls vs. Blue Raiders Odds
Looking for Kennesaw State Owls vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Free NCAA Week 9 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Owls taking on the Blue Raiders on 10/28 at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, in Murfreesboro, TN. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Owls Blue Raiders matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Kennesaw State Owls vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Owls +117 | Blue Raiders -142Here’s why I’m backing a Kennesaw State ATS bet below in my Owls Blue Raiders free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Owls vs. Blue Raiders Gameday
The Kennesaw State Owls visit the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro. Kickoff is 7:00 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Kennesaw State enters at 1-6, while Middle Tennessee stands at 4-3.
Jerry Mack’s Owls have lost six straight games. They’re 0-3 in Conference USA and winless on the road.
It’s been a brutal follow-up to last year’s conference championship.
Kennesaw State needs a response, but Middle Tennessee has no intention of surrendering its unbeaten home record.
Derek Mason’s Blue Raiders have won two straight and sit at 2-1 in conference play. They’re 3-0 at home, although recent wins have required late-game execution. Nothing has come particularly easily.
The Owls have lost three of their past four games by three points or fewer. They’ve stayed competitive but haven’t finished.
These programs have split their first two meetings.
It’s Week 9, Kennesaw State Owls vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, hopefully we get a great matchup.
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Kennesaw State Owls vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Odds & Previous Games
Middle Tennessee opened at -143 on the moneyline, with Kennesaw State at +119. The Blue Raiders opened as 2.5-point favorites, leaving the Owls at +2.5. The total opened at 51.5 points.
Kennesaw State lost 34-6 to Liberty after falling 24-21 to Missouri State and 27-26 to Jacksonville State. Earlier defeats came against Arkansas State, 17-14, and Tennessee, 42-9.
That Liberty performance was particularly ugly.
Middle Tennessee defeated FIU 26-23 and Delaware 33-30 in its latest two outings. The Blue Raiders also beat Nevada 27-20 but lost 55-0 to Kansas and 23-13 to Jacksonville State. Their results have been anything but predictable.
Kennesaw State won the 2025 meeting 24-16. Middle Tennessee took the 2024 matchup 14-5.
Both previous meetings finished below Wednesday’s opening total.
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Blue Raiders Stats
Middle Tennessee averages 23.3 PPG and 339.6 total YPG. The Blue Raiders generate 139.0 rushing YPG, with Antonio Martin Jr. leading the backfield at 480 yards. Terrence Brown Jr. has added 312.
The offensive line hasn’t consistently sustained drives. Middle Tennessee converts only 25.6% of its third-down opportunities.
That’s a serious problem for an offense needing more possessions.
Defensively, the Blue Raiders surrender 27.6 PPG and 405.9 total YPG. Opponents average 194.7 rushing YPG, exposing a weakness up front. Kennesaw State could find opportunities there.
Middle Tennessee has compensated by forcing turnovers. Its plus-five turnover margin has helped cover defensive shortcomings.
The Blue Raiders rushed for 251 yards against FIU.
Owls Stats
Kennesaw State averages 20.0 PPG and 357.3 total YPG. The Owls generate 225.3 passing YPG, but that production hasn’t translated into enough points. Finishing drives remains their biggest offensive problem.
Defensively, Kennesaw State allows 25.0 PPG and 380.0 total YPG. The Owls have performed better defensively than their record suggests.
Unfortunately, the scoreboard doesn’t award style points.
Boogie Woods III has rushed for 291 yards and four TDs. Receiver Javon Rogers has contributed 350 receiving yards and one TD. Both provide useful options when the offense executes.
The Owls can move the football, but too many promising possessions end without points.
Penalties have also hurt Kennesaw State. The Owls average 71.6 penalty yards per game, repeatedly putting themselves behind schedule.
That’s no way to help a struggling offense.
Owls vs. Blue Raiders QB Matchup
Middle Tennessee QB Roman Gagliano has thrown for 1,404 yards, 12 TDs and two interceptions. He’s completed 126 of 215 attempts through seven games. His ability to protect the football has been a major strength.
Gagliano averages 200.6 passing YPG. He can attack downfield when Middle Tennessee establishes its running game.
He’s the more efficient passer in this matchup.
Kennesaw State QB Rickie Collins has completed 144 of 210 passes for 1,426 yards, four TDs and five interceptions. He’s also rushed for 295 yards and five TDs. His mobility gives the Owls another offensive weapon.
Collins struggled against Liberty, throwing two interceptions. Landon Varnes also saw action, although Collins remains listed as the expected starter.
The Owls need better decisions from their QB.
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Collins can challenge Middle Tennessee with designed runs and scrambles. The Blue Raiders must account for his mobility without leaving receivers uncovered. That creates opportunities if Kennesaw State executes.
Gagliano offers Middle Tennessee a more dependable passing attack. The Owls must pressure him without surrendering easy completions.
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders bottom line: Middle Tennessee has the steadier passing game, but Kennesaw State’s ability to create offense with Collins’ legs could keep the Blue Raiders uncomfortable.
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Football Betting Trends
- Kennesaw State is 5-1 against the spread as an underdog in their last 6 games.
- The Owls are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 away games.
- Additionally, Kennesaw State has a record of 7-4 against the spread after a loss in their last 11 games.
- Middle Tennessee is 4-0 straight up in their last 4 home games.
- Also, the Blue Raiders are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 home games.
- Middle Tennessee has hit the over in all 3 of their games this season.
Owls Blue Raiders Free Pick: Kennesaw State +2.5
Here is my Owls Blue Raiders free pick: Kennesaw State +2.5. The Owls are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. Their straight-up record is ugly, but sportsbooks pay on covers, not appearances.
Kennesaw State is also 4-1 ATS in its past five road games. That’s the kind of underdog trend I want when the spread is this short.
The Owls have repeatedly delivered better results against the number than on the scoreboard.
Middle Tennessee gets the home crowd, but Kennesaw State has been the better bet in these situations.
The Owls are 7-4 ATS in their past 11 games following a loss. I like that response pattern, especially against a favorite being asked to cover rather than simply win.
I’m not betting on Kennesaw State to suddenly become a great football team. I’m betting on the number, and these Owls have made a habit of rewarding that approach. Kennesaw State +2.5
Today’s Week 9 NCAAF Free Pick
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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders on X
@DomBourgeois9 is named to the Lou Groza Week 8 Stars of the Week 🏆 https://t.co/UGanRefvrF
— Middle Tennessee Football (@MT_FB) October 27, 2026
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