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NFL Online Betting Odds – Packers at Chiefs
The Green Bay Packers travel to the inhospitable confines of Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday to take on a Kansas City team that has won four of their last five games to claim a share of the AFC West lead. Meanwhile, Brett Favre’s Monday Night heroics continued when he stunned the crowd at Mile High with an 82-yard deep strike to Greg Jennings on the first play of overtime to raise Green Bay’s record to 6-1. If Favre’s magic continues it will need to happen in one of the only remaining venues the 17-year quarterback is yet to post a victory. The Week 9 line has generously handed the Chiefs with a slim edge (-1) but the football betting public is seeing gold and green. We respect the Chiefs hard earned record, but apart from a win against a Chargers team having an early season identity crisis, they have yet to beat a team with a winning record.
Besides Favre’s heroics, the Packers running game finally showed some signs of life against Denver courtesy of Ryan Grant who tallied 104 yards on 22 carries for a 4.7 yard- per-carry clip. The second-year back showed some burst and most importantly the north-south one-cut mentality that the Packers’ zone running game requires. The Chiefs defense ranks 17th against the run (108.7 per game) and Green Bay will have to establish Grant to work the play-action downfield. Donnie Edwards leads the Chiefs in tackles.
If Favre gets time to scope downfield there’s little reason to doubt his abilities to work the perimeters against veteran corners Ty Law and Patrick Surtain (they’d be well-served to learn from Champ Bailey and Dre Bly’s losses). Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and rookie James Jones (who leads NFC rookies with 26 receptions for 400 yards) are threats after the catch and will pose problems for the Chiefs’ secondary. Chiefs’ defensive end Jared Allen leads the AFC with eight sacks (he credits his mullet for the great start) and will be matched up against veteran Chad Clifton – he’ll need to earn his paycheck this week.
The Chiefs will turn to workhorse Larry Johnson who seems to have finally turned the corner after posting back-to-back 100-yard games. The team will also get a lift from Priest Holmes’ return to Arrowhead, suited up for the first time since his career seemed in peril. The Packers defend the run well (98.4 yards a game and only two rushing touchdowns) and linebackers Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk and Brady Poppinga will key on stopping Johnson. Defensive tackle Ryan Pickett may not play but the Packers have depth on the defensive front. Quarterback Damon Huard will look to tight end Tony Gonzalez who will present match up problems against linebacker Poppinga and feisty but undersized safety Atari Bigby. Veteran corners Charles Woodsen and Al Harris will get a first hand glimpse of talented rookie Dwayne Bowe who poses a deep threat. Last week Aaron Kampman had three sacks to raise his total to eight on the season – he will get after Huard for four quarters.
The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. They may be coming off a short week, but the team is playing with confidence on both sides of the ball and will come into Arrowhead believing they can get the job done. This game may hinge on a couple turnovers and big plays, but the Packers defense will hold on late to win a tight game.
NFL BETTING FREE PICK: PACKERS AT +1
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