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Posted on 11/30/2007 5:39:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Bet on NFL – Week 13 Free Picks
San Francisco got insanely lucky (for once) this season when they toppled the MIGHTY KURT WARNER and crushed Arizona’s bid for the AFC West crown. Now they take their 4-7-1 ATS record on the road against Carolina in a game that nobody will watch except the excited betting investor. Wonderful.
San Francisco 49ers (3-8) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-7)
Sunday, December 2nd — Bank of America Stadium, Raleigh — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Carolina -3 (35)
On paper, the Carolina Panthers are a far superior team. They have a better offense, a superior defense and outscore their opponents. The problem is, the margin of victory in each category is so small. Carolina averages 15.7 points per game against San Francisco’s 13.6 points per game.
Both teams will be boasting veteran leaders who have lost arm strong as Vinny Testaverde battles (and I use that word ever so lightly) Trent Dilfer for supremacy on the NFL football field. Frank Gore will find continued success against a Carolina front-seven that has played with zero heart, taking pressure off of Dilfer and Vernon Davis to take this secondary to task.
At the end of the day, when both offenses are miserable, bet on the team with a superior defense. The numbers for San Francisco don’t pop at you, but Walt Harris and Nate Clements will shut down the listless Carolina passing game, that only manages 177.7 yards per carry. Put your betting dollars in Frank Gore’s hands as he rumbles down the field while the Niners defense reaps rewards for the San Francisco NFL betting faithful (whomever you may be).
NFL Free Pick: San Francisco 17 Carolina 13
Buffalo Bills (5-6) vs. Washington Redskins (5-6)
Sunday, December 2nd — FedEx Field, Washington — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Washington -5.5 (37.5)
It is absolutely impossible to gauge who the Redskins will react to the stunning and tragic loss of Sean Taylor, the enigmatic safety that was shot to death in his home. But the home crowd, and the raw emotion of the event will be enough to psyche this team up to immeasurable levels. Taylor was their leader on defense. He was a hard-hitting son of a gun that receivers across the NFL Odds feared. The Redskins defense, which allows 213.2 yards passing and 97.3 rushing yards, will step up in homage to their fallen leader.
The offense for Washington is athletic enough to beat this fast Buffalo defense. Jason Campbell can not underestimate the Buffalo secondary, which is opportunistic despite the fact they give up 258.7 passing yards per game. Look for the Redskins to dig deep in to the trenches of their emotional distraught as they rally past the Buffalo Bills in a big win for the departed, Sean Taylor. We’ll all miss you, Sean.
NFL Free Pick: Buffalo 12 Washington 24
Houston Texans (5-6) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-5)
Sunday, December 2nd — LP Field, Nashville — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Tennessee -4 (43)
Tennessee is unraveling at the seams. Apparently Albert Haynesworth’s importance to this team is incalculable. Without him, the Titans have been getting flattened for 32.3 points per game. He may return this week, but that is besides the point. It will help Tennessee stuff Ron Dayne and the Texans rushing game, but not their big play ability, which is the Titans’ foremost weakness.
Matt Schaub has averaged 274.5 yards through the air since him and Andre Johnson returned. The Titans’ secondary has been getting blown apart by big passing plays, and that’s all that Andre Johnson does. Nobody in the Titans’ secondary comes close to matching up to the fast, strong and athletic receiver. The Titans allow 200.5 passing yards.
Something is terribly wrong with Vince Young. His passing numbers are way up, but the Titans keep losing. Granted, their defense has been getting chewed up like your dog’s favorite toy, but averaging 14.4 points over the last 5 games is inexcusable. The rushing game has been stymied and Tennessee has been forced to the air. Young’s receivers have let him down immensely, but things won’t get any better against a good Houston Texans’ defense.
A slew of betting trends might sway the Texans betting faithful in favor of the Titans. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, while going 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against Tennessee. They’re also 0-3 SU against their division this season. Bet against all those trends this week as Andre Johnson blows up all over this secondary and forces VY to play catch-up. That is certainly a game even Invincible can’t win.
NFL Free Pick: Houston 27 Tennessee 14
New York Jets (2-9) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-11)
Sunday, December 2nd — Dolphins Stadium, Miami — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Miami -1 (38)
You know you’re a terrible football team when you are underdogs against the worst team in the NFL. Ouch. The Jets are winless on the road, but the Dolphins are winless overall. This will be a contest where both Kellen Clemens and John Beck will get a chance to shine.
However, Clemens has a clear advantage because of his strength at receiver. This Jets offense can’t move the chains without Laveranues Coles, who will return to action this week. The pair of Coles and Cotchery will help Clemens dismantle a hapless Dolphins secondary that gives up 176.6 passing yards. And, if Mangini has any sense, he will let Thomas Jones run wild on one of the league’s worst rushing defenses. The Dolphins give up 148.5 rushing yards per game.
With both tailbacks for Miami limping, John Beck lacking any real weapons, the betting backers can get behind the Jets in this one. The Jets are 6-1 SU in their last seven games when playing Miami. Miami is 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Jets.
NFL Free Pick: NYJ 17 Miami 14
Detroit Lions (6-5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-6)
Sunday, December 2nd — Metrodome, Minneapolis — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Minnesota -3 (45)
Apparently Kitna hasn’t been saying his prayers. Things are spiraling downwards for the Lions in a hurry, while the Vikings are enjoying a surprising upheaval. With Adrian Peterson returning to the lineup, the Vikings ruthless rushing attack returns to form. They gain a whopping 173.3 yards on the ground per game. While Detroit has a solid rushing defense (95.8 yards against), they won’t be able to handle the size and strength of the Vikings’ line.
John Kitna is averaging 251.2 yards through the air for the Lions, while the Vikings have the worst secondary in the league. They surrender 283.1 yards per game. A lot of that is because they are coached to look for picks. And when they are in the zone, they are a blood thirsty pack of vultures. Last week, they picked Eli apart for four interceptions and three touchdowns. They won’t enjoy the same success this week, but turnovers won’t be a tall order for these Vikings.
This game will ultimately decide which team belongs in Wildcard contention. Bet on Minnesota scoring a defensive touchdown to rob Detroit of any momentum, while they had AP and Chester Taylor the rock to control the clock and keep this Martz offense off the field. Detroit is 2-3 SU on the road, while the Vikings are 3-2 SU in the comforts of the Metrodome. A trend the Minnesota betting faithful will enjoy is the 0-4-1 ATS record the Lions have against the Vikings in their past five games.
NFL Free Pick: Detroit 20 Minnesota 27
Atlanta Falcons (3-8) vs. St. Louis Rams (2-9)
Sunday, December 2nd — Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Stl / Atl
As long as Marc Bulger can wrestle that starting job out of the fumbling grip of Gus Frerotte, the Rams will be ok in this one. St. Louis averages 200.0 pass yards per game, but the passing attack is much crisper and more precise with Bulger at the helm. The Falcons secondary has been allowed 202.5 yards per game, while surrendering 22.2 points. Bet on the Rams taking control of this game through the air, opening up lanes for the revived Steven Jackson.
Atlanta is 6-5 ATS because they have been up and down. The Falcons may be 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, but they are vulnerable to teams that pass the ball effectively. That is the Rams in a nutshell. The Rams hold the historic edge over the Falcons by going 7-3 SU against them in their last 10 meetings. St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta.
NFL Free Pick: Atlanta 17 St. Louis 21
Seattle Seahawks (7-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
Sunday, December 2nd — Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Philadelphia -3 (43)
The Seahawks (gasp!) are actually winning with steady and precise football! And it’s all thanks to Maurice Morris, whose downhill running style has been remarkably effective in Mike Holmgrem’s system. The Seahawks are 2-3 SU on the road, but 6-1 in the NFC. But Seattle has always been a team that doesn’t handle the cold well, and Philadelphia is getting mighty cold this time of year.
The Eagles played remarkably well under A.J. Feeley last week. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence. They are an efficient passing team that averages 237.9 yards through the air by spreading the ball out. The receiving stable is average at best, but they will find holes against a questionable Seahawks secondary.
Seattle will look to ground and pound in the cold weather, but Maurice Morris will have trouble against an arrogant Eagles front-seven that will blitz in to the backfield often to shut down MoMo and antagonize Hasslebeck. The Seahawks give up 16.6 points per game, which is strong, but the Eagles are riding a wave of confidence that won’t be derailed by a team that can’t hang in the frigid weather of Philly in December.
NFL Free Pick: Seattle 17 Philadelphia 21
San Diego Chargers (6-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-7)
Sunday, December 2nd — Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: San Diego -4.5 (37.5)
Every time you want to get excited about the Chargers, they revert back to their frustrating inept ways. Well no longer. Chris Chambers has answered the wide-receiver problem that the Chargers have had. Rivers has thrown an average of 279.0 yards in his last two games, totaling four touchdowns. The Chiefs have a vulnerable secondary that gives up 202.6 yards.
It will be hard for Kansas City’s betting faithful to place any trust in Brodie Croyle or Kolby Smith. The pair has managed well in the past two weeks, but Kolby’s massive output last week was due to the fact he was placing the Raiders. San Diego is not much better, giving up 113.9 yards on the ground, but they will be better prepared for Smith and a tattered KC offensive line.
Ultimately the fire power for San Diego will be too much for the Chiefs. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while Kansas City is in a turbulent four game losing skid right now. Bet on the Chargers and be happy.
NFL Free Pick: San Diego 24 Kansas City 16
Cleveland Browns (7-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (5-6)
Sunday, December 2nd — University of Phoenix Field, Phoenix — 4:05pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Arizona -2 (52)
While everyone keeps expecting the bubble to burst for the Browns, they keep winning games. Their high-flying due of Kellen Clemens Jr. and Braylon Edwards continue to make lives a living hell for secondaries across the NFL. On top of that, the Browns have been a betting backer’s best friend going 9-2 ATS.
The Cardinals lost a heart breaker last week but can make a valiant attempt at salvation by putting a dent in the Browns’ playoffs hopes. They have the passing attack to keep up with Cleveland’s ridiculous ability to run the score. With Boldin and Fitzgerald, the Cards will be able to decimate the woeful Browns secondary. Cleveland gets pasted for 266.5 passing yards per game.
The difference here will be Jamal Lewis, who is quietly reviving his career. The Browns will use him as they have in the past few weeks to control the clock and keep the explosive Cardinals offense off the field. The Browns average 107.8 yards on the ground, while the Cards give up 101.1 rushing yards against.
Cleveland isn’t as strong on the road as they are in the Dog Pound, going 2-3 SU away from home. But the Cardinals have appeared vulnerable at home, with a 3-2 SU mark in the University of Phoenix Stadium. Cleveland has been 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and that is a betting trend the intelligent investor will ride until further notice.
NFL Free Pick: Cleveland 34 Arizona 28
Denver Broncos (5-6) vs. Oakland Raiders (3-8)
Sunday, December 2nd — McAfee Stadium, Oakland — 4:05pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Denver -3.5 (42)
The Broncos shot themselves in the foot, while Todd Sauerbrun tried to pull his out of his mouth. By kicking to Devin Hester, they managed to lose a game that was firmly in their control. They can right the ship against an Raiders team that is coming off a motivating win against KC.
Oakland is 1-4 SU at home, and have gone 0-5 ATS in their past five games in McAfee Stadium. They also do not match up with Denver very well defensively. They allow 153.6 rushing yards to a team that is notorious for a solid rushing attack. That will cause them to bring too many defenders in to the box and create one-on-one opportunities for Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler’s big-play canon.
The Raiders boast a strong rushing game of their own, that averages 131.4 yards and is now firmly centered around Justin Fargas. The Broncos rush defense isn’t much better, giving up 146.7 yards on the ground, but their secondary is still strong. They will be able to leave Champ Bailey and Dre Bly on islands against the Raiders’ listless receivers, making the Raiders one dimensional.
Oakland hasn’t beaten Denver since 2004, and Denver has won their last five meeting SU. Expect that trend to continue as Denver uses their big-play ability to devastate a Raider Nation that got its hopes up after dismantling KC last week
NFL Free Pick: Denver 20 Oakland 13
New York Giants (7-4) vs. Chicago Bears (5-6)
Sunday, December 2nd — Soldier Field, Chicago — 4:15pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: NYG -2.5 (43.5)
Kick it out of bounds. Hell, kick it backwards. Just don’t kick it to Devin Hester! That’s the only thing that New York has to do win this game. Rex Grossman has actually played well in the past two weeks averaging 229.5 yards through the air and totaling a single touchdown. But this is Rex we’re talking about, and the bubble is about to burst (again).
Eli Manning was utterly embarrassed by the Vikings last week, but that won’t happen again. The Giants are a very strong road team, having won four of five road contests this season. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Chicago has gone 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
The Giants will rely on Brandon Jacobs to beat up a depleted Bears’ front-seven. Jacobs is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and will use his size and speed to wear down the Bears defensively. This will take pressure off of Eli, who is coming off of four straight brutal performances.
The Bears continue to yo-yo, winning one week and losing the next. With a win last week, they will return to their losing ways as the Giants keep the ball out of Hester’s hands and force Grossman to the turf behind the sack-hungry Osi Umenyiora. Both teams have been awful ATS this season, but the Giants can cover in this one.
NFL Free Pick: NYG 24 Chicago 17
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