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NFL Betting: Free Picks Week 10
Atlanta Falcons (2-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-4)
Sunday, November 11th — Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Carolina -4.5 (36.5)
With the news that Vinny Testaverde is playing, the chances for the Panthers look much better in this matchup (and no, I can’t believe I just wrote that). Atlanta is 0-4 SU on the road this season, while Carolina is 0-3 SU at home. Steve Smith will be looking to get Carolina’s offense rolling against DeAngelo Hall, especially after the two had a massive altercation in the last meeting.
The fact remains that neither of these teams have been very good lately. Atlanta has two wins in their last five games, beating up on the pathetic 49ers and the injury-riddled Houston Texans. Likewise, Carolina has only managed two wins in their last five games when they beat Arizona after Kurt Warner went down and New Orleans when they were in a mysterious funk earlier this season. Not helping un-blur the betting line is that these teams are 5-5 SU against each other in their last 10 games.
Carolina averages 175.9 passing yards and 122.6 yards on the ground. Atlanta looks deceptively good after they defeated the Niners last week, while the Panthers are rolling with a three game losing streak. But with Vinny in the backfield, the offense can enjoy some much steadier production as the get a much needed win to stay miraculously alive in the NFC South playoff race.
NFL Free Pick: Atlanta 14 Carolina 21
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-1)
Sunday, November 11th — Lambeau Field, Green Bay — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Green Bay -6.5 (40.5)
Adrian Peterson bulldozes his way in to legendary Lambeau Field this weekend as he takes on Brett Favre and the Packers. Peterson will face a rush defense that allows 93.8 yards per game, while Brett Favre will be gun slinging against the second worst passing defense in the league. Minnesota’s secondary gives up 275.6 yards per game and the defense, as a whole, gives up 19.3 points per game.
Green Bay won the last meeting 23-16 in Week 4, but that was before Peterson emerged as the most ridiculous offensive talent to enter the NFL in a long while. Working against Peterson is the fact that he still does not have a quarterback, and the Vikings are 1-3 SU on the road this year. While the betting community can argue that Green Bay’s defense is marginally worse than San Diego’s, you can counter that by saying that the entire San Diego team was simply in awe of what was happening on that field.
The Packers will be better prepared mentally if Adrian Peterson blows up on them.
The fact remains that Brett Favre and the Packers are 6-1-1 ATS this season and these boys simply have not given the betting community any reason to roll the dice against them. This is a pivotal NFC North matchup for both teams, and expect Green Bay to continue their three game winning streak as Favre picks apart this secondary with his emergent stable of receivers. Green Bay wields the second best passing game with 290.1 yards per game and are ninth in the league with 24.3 points per game.
NFL Free Pick: Minnesota 17 Green Bay 24
Denver Broncos (3-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
Sunday, November 11th — Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: KC -3.5 (37)
Despite the fact that Denver’s offense out gains Kansas City by 61.9 total yards per game, they only score 0.3 more points per contest than the Chiefs. Denver was given some good news when Jay Cutler’s leg seemed to suffer nothing more than a Charlie horse. But Kansas City will be getting a huge lift at home when Priest Holmes is handed the starting job while Larry Johnson gets some time to heal his foot.
Denver is absolutely atrocious against the spread, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. Some betting investors will shy away from the Chiefs since Larry Johnson is injured, but it’s not like he was getting too much done. Despite the fact that Priest and rookie Kolby Smith have received very little action this season, Denver still has the worst rushing defense in the league. The battle in the trenches will be won by KC on both sides of the ball.
Kansas City has managed a strong amount of turnovers this season with 17 (10 picks, 7 fumbles). Turnovers continue to haunt the Broncos. They have given the ball away 18 times this season. Despite the fact that Cutler is back, he will be playing scared with Jared Allen pursuing him around the edges and making that bruised leg of his even harder to stand on. Bet on Kansas as the attention Denver gives the returning Priest frees up Damon Huard to pick on a still-injured Champ Bailey.
NFL Free Pick: Denver 17 Kansas City 24
St. Louis Rams (0-8) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-4)
Sunday, November 11th — Superdome, New Orleans — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: New Orleans -12 (44.5)
The injury woes continue to flood in as the Rams lost Leonard Little for the season. That means Drew Brees, who has been on fire as of late, will have all the time in the world to shred this secondary to bits. The Saints have won their last four games by 14.5 points on average, and are going up the listless and winless St. Louis Rams.
Hurting the Rams chances of covering is that Steven Jackson is not healthy. Even if he was healthy, he lacks the offensive line to be truly effective. Marc Bulger will be throwing the lights out, padding the 207.3 passing yards the Rams gain per game, but it remains hard to bet on a team that is 1-7 ATS.
Expect Drew Brees and Reggie Bush to continue their late season dominance as they march right through the Rams. New Orleans beat a decent Jacksonville team by 17 points last weekend at home. They should have problem with a Rams defense that simply couldn’t hurt a fly.
NFL Free Pick: St Louis 14 New Orleans 31
Buffalo Bills (4-4) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-8)
Sunday, November 11th — Dolphins Stadium, Miami — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -3 (41)
Miami has had a week off to figure out what in blazes has happened to their team. Cleo Lemon and Jesse Chatman look like a serviceable replacement for Trent Green and Ronnie Brown, but this team has yet to finish with a win. Their once feared defense ranks and has only caused 8 turnovers. The Dolphins rank last with -8 turnover differential.
Miami has the worst defense in the league, getting torched for 30.5 points per game. They simply can not stop anyone, which is good news for J.P. Losman who has the chance to seize the starting job again after losing it to Trent Edwards earlier this week.
The savvy betting investor will know to shy away from Miami as a potential upset this week. The Dolphins were outscored 37-6 in two games against Buffalo last year.
Buffalo has the edge in the head-to-head, winning 7-3 SU against the Fins. Miami will put up a strong effort, but slowing
Buffalo down will be a problem. Lee Evans is finally finding some rhythm with Losman, and will have a chance to tear this pathetic secondary to shreds. The betting faithful for Buffalo have nothing to fear as the Bills continue their strong roll against the spread. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
NFL Free Pick: Buffalo 20 Miami 13
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) vs. Washington Redskins (5-3)
Sunday, November 11th — FedEx Field, Washington — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Washington -3 (38)
The Eagles got crushed by Dallas last week in prime time but have managed some strange wins this season. Meanwhile, the Redskins barely squeaked out a win against the Jets. With a victory, the Redskins can jump in to the playoff foray. The Eagles, at this point, are simply playing for pride.
The Eagles have the decisive edge in history, going 7-3 SU against Washington. But the Redskins owned McNabb on prime time earlier this year (maybe Donavan simply can’t play under the lights). Philadelphia still manages 236.4 rushing yards per game, and the greedy Redskins secondary remains vulnerable giving up 215.6 yards per game through the air.
The Eagles have gone 3-5 ATS this season, but are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Washington has gone 3-1 SU at home, but they are both yo-yo teams. Philadelphia lost its last game, while Washington won its last game. If that betting trend holds firm, the betting investor shouldn’t hesitate to take the Eagles as road dogs this Sunday.
NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia 24 Washington 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-2)
Sunday, November 11th — LP Field, Nashville — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Tennessee -4.5 (35)
Jacksonville is as big of a pretender as there is. Despite David Garrard’s supposed return to action this week, the 5-3 ATS Titans are simply too hot to bet against at this point. They have been winning football games with Vince Young having terrible offensive numbers.
Jacksonville’s defense allows 19.4 points per game while giving up a mediocre 331.6 yards per game. Their once feared rush defense got blown to smithereens by Chris Brown (of all people). Imagine what’s going to happen when a red-hot LenDale White rolls in to town. The Titans average 149.5 yards per game.
Tennessee is also a great team to bet on at home. They have a rabid crowd that has helped lift them to a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 home games. Tennessee won as a road dog in opening week, and will win this weekend as home favorites much to the satisfaction of their betting faithful.
NFL Free Pick: Jacksonville 13 Tennessee 21
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
Sunday, November 11th — M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore — 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Baltimore -4.5 (44.5)
Cincinnati can turn up the volume on offense, while Baltimore used to crank the screw when it came to defense. Too bad that neither team can turn down the “suck”. Baltimore’s four wins came against the Jets, 49ers and Rams and they barely squeaked out a victory against Arizona. Cincinnati is not a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they beat Baltimore handedly in opening week 27-20.
Hurting Baltimore’s chances in this game are the fact that their once feared secondary has been struck by injuries. Carson
Palmer has never enjoyed success against Ed Reed or Chris McAlister, but both seem to be out with injuries. Even if they do play, it will not be at full strength. That means bad news with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson coming to Baltimore. Johnson looks like he will play despite a stiff neck.
The Bengals may have a terrible and non-existent rushing game, but the passing game still manages 264.8 yards per game and is ranked fifth in the league. Baltimore has been a betting nightmare going 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games. And it’s almost impossible to bet on a team that can’t score points. Baltimore is twenty-sixth in the league with 16.4 points per game.
NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati 24 Baltimore 17
Detroit Lions (6-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
Sunday, November 11th — University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale — 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Detroit -1 (45)
The Cardinals were supposed to take the leap this year, but the Detroit Lions stole their magic and are the most surprising playoff contender this year. Both teams have been solid against the spread, but Detroit’s 5-2-1 ATS record gets a slight edge against the Cardinals’ 4-3-1 record.
Led by Jon Kitna, and supported by the resurgent Kevin Jones in the backfield, the Lions have the sixth best offense in the league. They light up the board for 25.0 points per game, and last week their defense showed just how hungry to score (and win) they are as well. Arizona gives up 21.8 points per game and is vulnerable through the air, despite Adrian Wilson. They simply don’t have the personnel to cover the four receiver stable of the Lions.
Arizona may be 4-2 ATS in their last six games, but it’s hard to bet on a team when they can’t run the football and are having appalling trouble throwing the ball, especially when they have two of the best receivers in the game. Detroit has a 2-2 SU record on the road this season, but they have been playing inspired ball this season. Even if a team derails his team of its current winning streak, it won’t be the Cardinals.
NFL Free Pick: Detroit 28 Arizona 24
Chicago Bears (3-5) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-6)
Sunday, November 11th — McAfee Stadium, Oakland — 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chicago -3 (38)
The Bears are literally clawing for their playoff lives, while the Oakland Raiders continue to stink up the league. Josh McCown stepped in for the uninspiring Daunte Culpepper last week, and threw three picks against the Texans. The secondary for Oakland is deadly, but the real question is whether they can stop the running game.
The key to beating Oakland is running the damn ball, and Chicago has two capable backs. Cedric Benson has been horrible this season, but Adrian Peterson (not that one, the other one) is a fantastic downhill runner. Giving both of these tailbacks plenty of chances will draw the secondary closer to the line of scrimmage, giving Bernard Berrian the room he needs to scorch the secondary for a few long receptions.
Brian Griese is not a general, but he has enough in the tank to beat Oakland, who perpetually find ways to lose games. Chicago play decently on the road, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 1-7 SU in their last 8 home games. Despite Chicago’s woes this season, the writing is on the wall for you to bet on Chicago cleanly and faithfully.
NFL Free Pick: Chicago 21 Oakland 13
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