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NFL Football Gamble – Vikings vs. 49ers – Monster Park, San Francisco, CA
VIKINGS (6-6) VS. 49ERS (3-9)
Sunday, December 9, 2007 4:05 ET
NFL football betting odds: MINNESOTA -10, Total 40
NOTABLE STAT: Minnesota 5.6 yards per rush; 3.0 yards per rush allowed
The Minnesota Vikings (6-6 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) suddenly find themselves in the playoff race, and will look to keep their wild card hopes very much alive as they visit Monster Park in San Francisco (grass) to play the 49ers (3-9 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) in a game beginning at 4:05 PM EST.
In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, Minnesota is listed at -10, with the over/under posted at 40 points.
Here are some NFL betting stats and trends relative to this matchup:
* MINN has won and covered four of its last five games
* MINN has played five of its last six games OVER the total
* MINN is 2-2-2 ATS in its last six road games
* MINN has won three of its last 11 road games SU
* MINN averages 177 rushing yards a game
* MINN has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* SF has covered one of its last seven games
* SF has won one of its last ten games SU
* SF is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games
* SF has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
* SF has won 10 of the last 14 meetings SU
* SF is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings at home
* Five of the last six meetings in SF have gone OVER the total
Adrian Peterson had 116 yards in his return to the Vikings’ lineup. Without him, Minnesota won a couple of games with Chester Taylor at the running back spot. It is clear that Brad Childress’ plan of controlling the line of scrimmage is starting to take hold. Minnesota is gaining an other-worldly 5.6 yards a carry, while surrendering only three yards a pop to the opposition.
That plays a role here, because San Francisco, which gained just 195 yards and committed six turnovers last week, will not be able to rely on its bread-and-butter, Frank Gore (713 yards, 4.2 ypc), who can be shut down. And Minnesota’s pass defense, which has taken a lot of abuse this season, is not likely to be exploited too badly by Trent Dilfer, who tossed four INT’s last week against Carolina.
But Minnesota’s running game will wear down the over-worked Niner defense, which has spent an average of almost 35 minutes a game on the field.
The Vikes have won three straight games, scoring 37 points per contest in that period. San Francisco, even including its 37 points against the Cardinals, has scored only 111 points in its last nine (12.3 ppg). We’re not ready to call Tarvaris Jackson (57%, 5 TD’s) a big-league quarterback yet. But he’s improving, and actually a better alternative than what the Niners have now, because he can run with the football.
Because the Vikes actually have premier offensive weaponry and a way to slow down Gore, and because there is no plausible reason to back the Niners, we’ll make the small recommendation with Minny, the 10-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks NFL betting odds.
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: MINNESOTA
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