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Posted on 11/22/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Football Wagering Thanksgiving Triple Header
Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers
It’s Thanksgiving, and that means Thursday NFL betting action and turkey. The first course on the menu is a 12:30pm EST contest between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
The Lions enter this game at 6-4 SU (straight up) and 5-4-1 ATS (against the spread). Detroit traditionally gets it handed to them on turkey day, but this year they actually have a legitimate shot at a win, as they’re playing much better than year’s past and are in the playoff hunt.
Offensively, Detroit is scoring 23.1 points per game and racking up 333.5 yards with a majority coming through the air with 256.6 yards passing off the arm of John Kitna, who owns the league’s eighth-best quarterback rating of 90.2. On defense, the Lions are allowing 23.2 points per game and 353.3 yards.
The Lions are 11-5-1 SU all-time against Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day, including a 22-14 victory in 2003. That game was the only win for Detroit on Thanksgiving in the last seven years.
Green Bay is off to their best start since 1962 at 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS as the second most profitable team in the league.
Green Bay’s high-powered offense has scored 30 points in each of its last three games. They are putting up 25.9 (sixth-best in the league) points per game and racking up 370.3 yards. Like Detroit, most of the Packers offense is generated through the air and Bret Favre, who owns the NFL’s fifth-best quarterback rating of 98.6.
Defensively, the Packers are giving up just 15.9 (fifth-best in the league) points per game and 313.8 yards.
The Lions and Packers met twice last year with Green Bay winning both SU and ATS. However, the Packers have been money-shredders in Detroit where they are 2-8 ATS in their last ten meetings.
NFL odds list Green Bay the 4-point favorites with a game total of 47½. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. The under is 4-1 in the last five matchups, but the over is 5-2 in the last seven games played in Detroit.
Analysis: This game features two potent offenses that have virtually no ground game, which will create a pass crazy game making for a high-scoring affair. Wager on the over and enjoy the shootout.
NFL Free Picks: OVER 47½
Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets
Thursday’s main course consist of the hosting Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets kicking off at 4:15pm EST. Considering the Jets are 2-8 SU and 0-4 on the road, having dropped the cash in three of the four away from, Dallas has a very legitimate shot at stuffing your turkey with cash.
Dallas is 25-14 SU on Thanksgiving. The Jets are making their first Thanksgiving appearance since 1985, when they lost at Detroit.
The Cowboys are 9-1 SU for the first time since 1983 and they’ve covered the spread in eight of the ten with one push. The division-leading Cowboys are getting it done with an offense that ranks second in the league, scoring 32.4 points per game while racking up 393 yards. The defense is holding opponents to 21.8 points and 311 yards.
The month of November has been a profitable period for Dallas and New York. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in the month’s last six, owning the same mark in Week 12. As for New York, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in November and 8-3-1 ATS in their last twelve contests played in Week 12.
The Jets are scoring just 17.8 (eighth-worst in the NFL) points per game off 290.9 yards, meanwhile, the defense is giving up 24.4 points and 368.5 (seven-worst) yards.
A home cooked Thanksgiving meal may play a role in this one, as the home team is 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 meetings. NFL odds list Dallas the 15-point favorites with a game total of 47½. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
Analysis: This is a mismatch on paper and it will show on the field. There’s too much power on the Cowboys team who’ll get the cover win. Take Dallas and stuff your belly with turkey and cash.
NFL Free Picks: Dallas -15
Indianapolis Colts and the Atlanta Falcons
Thursday’s dessert is a sweet game between the Indianapolis Colts hosted by the Atlanta Falcons beginning at 8:15pm EST. The Colts have failed to cover the number in back-to-back games and are 6-4 ATS on the year and 8-2 SU.
Indianapolis’ offense, that’s scoring a league’s fourth-best 27.8 points per game and collecting 372.4 yards, overshadows their rock-solid defense.
The Colts haven’t given up more than 24 points this year, and are giving up just 15.9 per game. The defense unit is ranked second in the NFL, allowing 266.3 yards per game
The Colts are 12-1 SU against Atlanta, but lost 28-21 in their only visit to the Georgia Dome in 1998.
The Falcons have cashed in three of its last four and is 6-4 ATS and 3-7 SU. They have been money-making road warriors having covered the spread in four of their five played away from home.
Offensively, Atlanta is scoring a stagnant NFL second-worst 14.2 points per game and putting up 291.3 yards. On defense, they’re allowing 21.3 points and 321.8 yards.
NFL odds list Indianapolis the 14-point favorites with a game total of 42. The Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as a road favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 overall. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
Analysis: This is another mismatch, but the Falcons find a way to earn a payday when being pegged big dogs. Expect a late backdoor cover by Atlanta to take the cash in this one.
NFL Free Picks: Atlanta +14
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