Super Bowl Intangibles Part I: Rushing Game Superbowl Info – Whatever game is your passion, Bodog takes you front and center in the Bodog Sportsbook. From NFL football to the madness of NCAA basketball – and everything in-between – Bodog is the one-click source for sports enthusiasts. The Bodog Sportsbook is a highly respected, customer-friendly operation that has earned top ratings by all major sportsbook review sites. And don’t forget the Bodog Racebook offers the same quality and satisfaction.
Superbowl Handicapping Guide From CappersPicks.com
Superbowl Event – Stats – Betting – Handicapping and football guide from CappersPicks.com.
Matt Fargo – Sharp Sports Advisors
January 25th, 2008
It’s pretty common knowledge in football that winning the rushing battle usually means winning the football game. That is the case throughout the regular season, the playoffs and ultimately, the Super Bowl. Obviously, picking which team is going to win the rushing battle is not the easiest of tasks since if it was, everyone would be likely winning money on sports’ most wagered-on game. Let’s do some breakdowns and see who has the best shot to win the line of scrimmage for Super Bowl XLII.
The Rushing Game
Let’s take a look at some history first. Winning the rushing game usually means winning the Super Bowl but what exactly is the likeliness of that? Of the first 41 Super Bowls, the winning team had more rushing yards in 34 of those games which is pretty significant. More importantly for us and for the purpose of this article, the team with the greater rushing yard total is 30-11 ATS (73.2 percent). So not only predicting the rushing winner gives us the outright winner but it likely gives us a spread cover as well.
The Super Bowl winner has averaged 152.7 ypg through the first 41 big games while the losing team has averaged just 88.1 ypg. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at ypc averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over 4.01 ypc while the losing team has averaged 3.65 ypc.
The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only five times in the history of the big game, most recently Super Bowl XXXIV winner St. Louis. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 ppg however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.
Now on to this season. New England finished the regular season ranked 10th in rushing defense, allowing 98.3 ypg. However, if there ever was a season that skewed this average, this was the one. The Patriots did not lose this year and they were ahead the vast majority of the time in the second half which forced almost every team to abandon the running game. A better indication of how the rushing defense performed is to look at average per rush and New England surrendered 4.4 ypc which was tied for 26th.
The Giants used a strong running game for their success this year. They finished 4th in the league with 134.3 ypg and the fifth game of the season against the Jets was the turning point. New York rushed for 188 yards in that game and suddenly there was no slowing down the running game. The Giants averaged 99.3 ypg through their first four games prior to that breakout and 146 ypg in their final 12. They also finished with a 4.6 ypc average, good for 3rd best in the league.
As good as the offense was, the defense was nearly as dominant. New York allowed 97.7 ypg during the regular season which was 8th in the NFL and its 3.8 ypg average allowed was good for a tie for 4th with five other teams. New England averaged 115.6 ypg on the ground which was middle of the pack while its 4.1 ypc average was right there as well. The Patriots offense was successful around the passing game with no need for a running attack but it has been a turnaround during the playoffs.
The Patriots have averaged 147 ypg in their two playoff games and an even more impressive 4.9 ypc. However, the efforts did come against the 11th and 16th ranked rushing defenses to take it for what it’s worth. Lawrence Maroney is averaging 122 ypg during the playoffs and has been huge for the Patriots offense as he is averaging 5.2 ypc. If the Patriots can get that sort of production, it will be a huge accomplishment considering New York is allowing 83.7 ypg and 3.6 ypc during the playoffs.
The Patriots rushing defense has stepped up in the postseason as it has allowed just 92 ypg against two very good rushing offenses. However, the Jaguars had success with the passing game and stuck with that while the Chargers were without LaDainian Tomlinson, who rushed the ball just twice. They have allowed 4.18 ypc so it really hasn’t been complete domination. The Giants numbers have gone down considerably, averaging 108 ypg on 3.5 ypc in the three playoff games so that is a concern.
This is one of those rare occasions where we can actually look at a matchup from an earlier meeting in the season and this one happened to take place in the final regular season game. The Giants only rushed for 79 yards in the first meeting this season but they ran it only 19 times the entire game. They put up a solid 4.16 ypc average and if not for losing the time of possession by over 12 minutes, the running game could have been more vital. New England rushed for just 44 yards on 26 carries (1.69 ypc).
These comparisons are quite similar to what we saw last season. Chicago had the clear cut advantage in the running game during the regular season but that shifted in the playoffs to the Colts side and that edge carried over into the Super Bowl. Will we see a similar outcome? The shift of the rushing edge to the New England side during the postseason is not as significant and we will have to wait and see what effect this has on Super Bowl XLII. My opinion of that will be part of the winning side released soon.
Superbowl Handicapping & NFL Championship Guide Click Here For All Your Superbowl Info >>
Looking for Superbowl Information? Then you’ve come to the right place, link the superbowl info link if you want to know everything about one of the biggest sporting events in the world. Site details, super bowl facts, stats, gambling info, and more, its truly all right here at Cappers Picks. Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more. We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning! Send cappers picks an e-mail and we’ll try to answer your question as soon as possible. Because of the large volume of mail cappers picks gets, it may take a couple of days to get a response. Please trust us to know cappers picks will make the right choice for your sports handicapping and sports betting needs and we pride ourselves on our customer service in the sports handicapping industry. The team here at cappers picks encourages you to make educated decisions for offshore and internet sportsbooks to bet with, so we do the hard work for you. CappersPicks.com online sports betting staff are the only website guru’s you’ll need for your sport book lines, reviews of sports betting sites, sports predictions, and sports picks. We have complete confidence in the sports handicappers we promote and the sportsbooks listed on this website – they all offer fair betting lines, fast payouts and top notch customer service. We want to keep you involved all year long with sports gambling, from NHL hockey, to NBA basketball, and right into european soccer season, plus Nascar, Arena Football, NFL football and NCAA and college football betting. Cheer on your favorite teams.