Mistakes to Avoid Handicapping MLB
Have you stopped by Cappers Picks today to use our MLB Betting Tips from the experts at Cappers Picks? Specifically tools for how to avoid costly mistakes? It is said that lack of knowledge can be expensive. Read below to assure you aren’t leaving money on the table betting on MLB.
Futures Prices
Typically prices in futures markets align so that it isn’t any more of an advantage to take a team to win the division, or the pennant, of the World Series. But occasionally, the prices can get out of whack.
Typically, a team’s price to win the pennant will be twice as much (half the payout) as its price to win the World Series. Obviously, it has to win another series to win the World Series, hence the larger payout.
But depending on how betting action is distributed, this can change. For instance, I was looking at Pittsburgh Pirates’ futures a couple weeks ago and found that they were just about the same price to win the NL pennant as they were to win the World Series.
Now, even if I wanted to only bet them all the way in the World Series, it just wouldn’t make any sense for just a marginally larger payout (it was about 40 percent larger). Rather, I would take them at the better price to win the pennant and simply roll over some of the winnings in the World Series, if I were to be fortunate enough to cash the pennant future.
Since a World Series is usually a fairly balanced matchup, I could count on getting close to a 1/1 payout there anyway.
Sometimes a team gets bet down in the division futures but ignored in the longer markets. Even if you don’t necessarily love the long future, it can still offer significantly better value for a team you’re keen on.
So while I wouldn’t recommend bending your bets to the market, you have to take a look at all the prices because it may be it just doesn’t make mathematical sense to bet the particular future you’re considering.
Putting too Much Faith in Statistics
I just wrote a piece on some of the statistics I like to use to handicap baseball and here I am just a little later telling you not to put too much faith in those same numbers.
It’s all a balancing act. Data can be invaluable to the bettor but most of it is just noise, especially with all the data and all the publications and Twitter personalities publicizing it these days.
Especially baseball statistics are fond of reflecting history. Now, history repeats itself but it’s just history. It is what has already transpired. What you have to ask yourself is: is this data indicative of the future?
It it’s a number that could play into the future, give it some credence. If it is just a fun fact about what has already happened, don’t let it scare you off.
And on the flip side of the coin, be careful about reading a stat or tidbit that completely convinces you to make a play. Would you even be considering the play had you not read it? Do you have any other reasons to make the play? If not, you may be getting ahead of yourself.
Not Knowing Who is Available Out of the Bullpen
I can tie this one in with another common mistake, which is to base too much on the starting pitching matchup.
Baseball in 2020 is significantly different than baseball in 1920, or even 2000, for that matter, as far as the role the starter plays in the game. An average start is just five innings today.
For that reason, you must know what relievers threw yesterday and what relievers threw the day before that and the day before that. Plus, how many pitches they threw.
This sort of research gives you an idea of the first reliever out of the bullpen tonight. There are some games that are just throw-away of sorts for the manager with a burned-out bullpen.
That can mean the late innings could be a disaster. It could also indicate the particular starter is going to be extra motivated, knowing that the guys behind him need a night off. If all plays into the bigger picture.
What do you think of our article MLB Betting Tips: Mistakes to Avoid? Comments are welcome below.
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