Handicapping the Weather
Have you stopped by Cappers Picks today to use our MLB Betting Tips from the experts at Cappers Picks? Specifically tools for how to handicap MLB baseball weather? Unless you’re handicapping a game at Tropicana Field — the home of the Tampa Bay Rays and the only Major League stadium with a fixed roof — you have to consider the weather.
The weather can affect every player on the field, a manager’s decision-making and the way the ball flies through the air. A handicapper who neglects the weather conditions puts him or herself at a disadvantage.
Warmer temperature decrease air density and pressure. Less air density and pressure mean less drag on the baseball when it is flying through the air. Less drag on the baseball means fly balls travel further and, all other things equal, more balls over the outfielder’s heads and over the fence. That means more runs.
Humidity is another factor that affects air density. It’s a counterintuitive situation. Typically, we think of added humidity as making the air thicker because it feels harder to breathe. Humidity is moisture in the air but the water in the air is actually lighter than the nitrogen and oxygen it displaces. So while the air feels thicker, it is actually less dense.
So heat and humidity create ideal conditions for the ball to fly and could make the difference on a deep fly ball that would have otherwise fell on the warning track and, for that matter, a total that would have otherwise stayed under.
Perhaps the most obvious weather condition to pay attention too, however, is the wind.
Wind affects cities differently. People know Chicago as the Windy City because of its proximity to the Great Lakes. The same goes for Detroit. Many coastal cities can experience high winds off the ocean.
The strength of the wind matters, as does the direction. Any weather report will indicate which way the wind is blowing but your job doesn’t end there as a handicapper. You have to know which way the ballpark is oriented.
There are numerous free resources online that detail which direction each ballpark is oriented. The MLB rulebook states that it is desirable for the line that runs from home plate through the pitcher’s mound and second base to run East-Northeast, which would mean North and East winds are blowing out.
Knowing how strong the wind will blow at game time and in what direction is key to handicapping, as well as the tendencies for the starting pitchers to induce balls in the air or on the ground. A ground ball pitcher is not nearly as affected by the wind as one who sees the ball hit in the air often.
The possibility of rain means the possibility of a shortened game. It’s tough to make a bet based on the small possibility an official game lasts only five or six innings but it’s something that should be at least considered.
What do you think of our article MLB Betting Tips: Handicapping the Weather? Comments are welcome below.
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