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NFL Football Betting – NFC Playoffs, Seattle at Green Bay
NOTABLE STAT: Seattle has 45 quarterback sacks on the season
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Green Bay is 6-1-1 ATS at home this season
The Seattle Seahawks (11-6 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) and coach Mike Holmgren, coming into very familiar territory, try to advance to the NFC championship game as they visit Lambeau Field (grass) to play the Green Bay Packers (13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS) in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. Kickoff is set for 4:30 PM ET on Saturday.
In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, the Packers are listed at -8, with the total posted at 42.5 points.
Here are some of the NFL betting trends and stats relative to this matchup:
* SEA has won and covered seven of its last nine games
* SEA is 3-5 ATS on the road this season
* SEA is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 road games
* SEA has won two of its last six road games SU
* SEA is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 getting eight points or more
* GB has won 17 of its last 20 games SU
* GB is 6-1-1 ATS at home this season
* GB has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total
* GB has played seven straight games OVER the total
* GB is 7-2-1 ATS as a favorite this season
* GB is 0-3 ATS in its last three home playoff games
* GB has won four of the last six meetings SU
* SEA is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games at Green Bay
Statistically speaking, these teams are incredibly similar. Seattle scores 25 points per game, Green Bay 27. Seattle and Green Bay both allow 18 points a game. Both have averaged 100 yards rushing per game. Seattle has scored 48 touchdowns; Green Bay 49. On defense, both allowed 291 points. Seattle allowed 101 rushing yards a game, Green Bay 103. Seattle yielded 211 yards through the air per game, Green Bay 210.
Matt Hasselbeck of Seattle has completed 63% of his passes, compared to 67% for Brett Favre. Both have thrown 28 touchdowns, and Hasselbeck has tossed less interceptions (12) than Favre has (15).
Yes, Seattle has Shaun Alexander, the MVP a couple of years ago, in the backfield, along with Maurice Morris. But Green Bay became a multi-dimensional offensive team when Ryan Grant emerged. Grant gained 956 yards despite starting just seven games, moved for five yards a pop and had eleven runs of 20 yards or more. That’s impressive, and that was what the Packers and Favre really needed.
Seattle played only three teams who made the playoffs this year, defeating Tampa Bay in the season’s opening week, getting shut out at Pittsburgh, and dusting off Washington in the first playoff round. For a period of 11 weeks, the Seahawks didn’t play anyone who made the post-season. Is this a paper tiger or a team that can be competitive on the “frozen tundra”?
The answer is yes. Seattle does a lot of things pretty well, but they happen to rush the passer extremely well, tallying 45 sacks in the regular season, behind only the Giants, Patriots and Cowboys. They have a quarterback in Hasselbeck who is more mature than the guy who, several years ago, told the officials at the start of overtime, “We want the ball…and we’re going to score,” before throwing an interception to Al Harris that was returned for a touchdown. And they have the experienced coaching staff led by Mike Holmgren, who has been around – this is his 24th post-season game as a head coach.
Green Bay scored a couple of early-season wins over the Giants and Chargers, but like Seattle, was not tested to the limit in the regular season other than in Dallas, where they came up ten points short. This may indeed be the most talented Packers team Favre has played on, as he professes, but there have been no post-season covers in the last three games at Lambeau. The Seahawks have become increasingly dependent on the pass, but that doesn’t mean they CAN’T run the ball.
The bottom line here is that I just think there is some value in this number. We’ll grab the points with the Seahawks, the eight-point underdog in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds.
BetUS NFL betting odds: GREEN BAY -8, Total: 42.5
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: SEATTLE
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