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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks Posted on 11/29/2007 8:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAAF Betting – Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Louisville Cardinals
This is a matchup that should have had much bigger BCS implications. Instead the battle between Ray Rice and Brian Brohm is a throwdown for pride. Can Louisville get revenge on Rutgers for the massive upset Rutgers had against them? Louisville is slugging through a rough two game losing streak, including a 17-55 beatdown at the hands of South Florida.
Rutgers Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Ray Rice is making his last push for the Heisman, though he may be well out of the race. However, last season he had a massive game against Louisville rumbling for 131 yards and two scores. The powerful and dynamic tailback is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has 17 touchdowns on the year. He will bash right through a soft Louisville rush defense that allows an absurd 169.1 rush yards per game.
Focusing on Rice will take pressure off of quarterback Mike Teel who has been consistently inconsistent this season. He throws a 56.8 completion percentage and has twelve picks on the year. Rutgers is 47th in the nation with only 251.5 passing yards per game, but that is largely because they are a run-first offense.
Louisville’s defense is their major weakness. Last season they rode an unbelievable offensive output from Brian Brohm, but this year Brohm has stumbled and the defense has been unable to keep opponents of the score board. They let opponents burn them at the stake for 30.8 points per game.
Louisville Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
Brian Brohm was supposed to contend for the Heisman, but his team’s inability to win games crippled his chances, and the Louisville’s BCS aspirations. In the process, they emptied their betting bandwagon as they went 2-7 ATS on the season. Brohm and the Cardinals may have the fourth best passing offense (351.5) yards per game, but statistical success has simply not translated in to wins.
Brohm may have 29 touchdowns on the year, but he also has 12 interceptions, which are more a by-product of the fact that Louisville throws so much. Their leading rusher only has 141 carries this season.
Rutgers defense is insanely fast and plays fiercely against divisional opponents (not named West Virginia). They can swarm the ball carrier, meaning the rush won’t be there. They hold opposing tailbacks to 151.5 rush yards per game. Their biggest strength, however, is the pressure the front-four create on the quarterback causing passers to make ill-informed decisions. Rutgers holds opponents to 153.6 passing yards per contests and only allows 20.1 points per game against.
NCAA College Football Trends
-Rutgers is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
-Rutgers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 road games
-Louisville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
-Louisville is 2-7 ATS this season
Final Verdict
The greatest part of this matchup is the pass-first mentality of Louisville clashing with the run-first stubbornness of Rutgers. Louisville would love nothing more than to avenge the loss to Rutgers in 2006 that derailed their national title hopes. But this matchup is horrible for this season’s Louisville squad.
Rice salivates when playing a team like Louisville, which simply doesn’t get enough shove up front to close up the gaps created by his massive front-line. Bet on Rice running roughshod all over Louisville’s face as Brohm tries to force too many passes creating picks.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-4) vs. Louisville Cardinals (5-6)
Thursday, November 29th — Papa John’s Cardinals Stadium, Louisville — 7:30pm EST
NCAA Football Opening Lines: Louisville -3 (60)
NCAA Football Free Pick: Rutgers 31 Louisville 24
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