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NFL Football Betting: Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans, off a very close call in Houston, return home to Nashville this Sunday to take on the Oakland Raiders, in a game scheduled for 1 PM ET on the grass at LP Field. The Titans are listed at -7 in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, with the total posted at 41.5 points.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: Tennessee -7, Total: 41.5
NOTABLE STAT: Tennessee 19 ppg when Vince Young starts
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Tennessee five unders in six games this season
Let’s take a look at what that over/under figure presents to us:
First, a glance at some of the TOTALS-RELATED NFL betting stats and trends relevant to the two teams:
* OAKLAND has played four of its six games over the total in 2007
* OAKLAND has played 13 of its last 18 games under the total
* OAKLAND has played seven of its last nine road games under the total
* OAKLAND and TENNESSEE have played over the total in four of their last five meetings
* TENNESSEE has played five of its six games under the total in 2007
Last Sunday Oakland scored 10 points in the second half but it wasn’t enough to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who wound up winning a 12-10 decision as a 1.5-point underdog. The game obviously went below the 38-point posted total. Tennessee took a 32-7 lead into the fourth period against the Houston Texans and actually fell behind 36-35 before kicking a field goal at the end to win 38-36 as a two-point dog. It was kicker Rob Bironas’ eighth field goal of the game, setting a new NFL record.
Preliminary word is that Vince Young, who sat out Sunday’s game with a quadriceps injury, is listed as probable to play against Oakland. That impacts our evaluation of the total. From the standpoint of yards and points, Collins, who completed 25 of 42 passes for 280 yards on Sunday, has the potential to produce more numbers for the Titans’ offense. However, there is a trade-off with Collins, who has a tendency to make more mistakes, bigger mistakes, and does not really possess the ability to make good plays out of broken plays the way Young does.
But Tennessee does play a more conservative game with Young in the lineup. He is not a polished passer yet, ranking 27th in the league with 703 passing yards. And his 6.2 yards per attempt is way down the list. In games where Young started, Tennessee’s games have averaged 33 points a contest.
Despite folding during the fourth quarter against Houston, the Titans defense has proven to be capable, as it is currently ranked #6 in the NFL in yards allowed per game.
The Raiders’ defense has been disappointing, ranking close to the bottom of the league, although it has crept up a bit recently. Still, this is a comedown from last season, when this unit was so proficient that if there was even a presentable offensive attack, Oakland may have been a wildcard contender.
Speaking of offense, early on, Oakland showed some improvement there, especially in the running game. After making his first QB start, in which he only completed five passes but scored three TD’s on the ground himself against the NFL’s worst defense, Daunte Culpepper has led his team to just three TD’s and 24 total points in his two starts since. And the ground attack has dried up, with only 108 total yards the last two weeks.
Even though Collins led the Titans on ten different drives against Houston where they scored points, remember that on eight of those drives they stalled and had to settle for the field goal. Tennessee has scored only nine TD’s in 26 trips inside the red zone, ranking them 27th in the league in terms of percentage. Oakland has scored nine TD’s in the red zone, but they’ve only gotten there 16 times, less than all but four teams.
I am looking for a game that will probably be dominated by defense and the rushing game, and between offenses that are not exactly functioning at their highest level. That points to an “under.”
JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 41.5 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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