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Posted on 11/29/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Betting Free Picks – Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Preview The Duel in Dallas will pit Brett Favre, the old timer, against Tony Romo, who is quickly evolving in to the new, fun-loving playmaker that Favre used to be. This game will likely decide which team gets home-field advantage throughout the playoffs so the stakes have never been higher in the regular season for either of these squads. The last time Dallas had a big game to win at home, they lost to the New England Patriots. Will the same befall them on Thursday against powerful Pack attack?
Green Bay Offense vs. Dallas Defense
The key for Green Bay will be getting Ryan Grant hot and out of the gates early, and that may be fairly easy considering that Brett Favre has been en feugo as of late. Since their Week 7 bye, Favre has averaged 328.2 yards through the air in the past five games, totaling 13 touchdowns and only two picks in the process.
Dallas’s slow secondary has allowed 217.0 yards per game, ranking them twenty-first in the league. The difficulty in covering Green Bay’s receivers, is that Brett Favre spread the balls out well between Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Ruvell Martin so it is difficult to throw double coverage at any one of the capable, and reliable, Packer catchers.
Green Bay racks up almost as many yards as Dallas does offensively. They are third I the league, averaging 380.4 total yards of offense per contest, and average 26.9 point per game. Dallas has to contain Ryan Grant, a third-stringer, and continue the reputation of their fourth ranked Dallas rush defense. The problem for Demarcus Ware and the fierce, Dallas front-seven will be dropping backers out of the box to cover the Green Bay receivers. This, in itself, will open up more room for Grant who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
Dallas Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
Romo is great, but Green Bay’s defense matches up very well against this scorching hot team. Hurting Dallas is that Terrell Owens is the only viable receiver. Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton remain sidelined by injury. Dallas has the sixth-best passing offense, averaging 260.5 pass yards in Texas Stadium.
However, Romo and his depleted receiver set will have to contend with both Charles Woodson and Al Harris in the secondary. Harris played unbelievably against a similar player last weekend, shutting down Roy Williams of Detroit last week. Covering Jason Witten will be left to either Nick Barnett or A.J. Hawk, who are both incredibly good athletes, though not nearly as fast as Witten. Witten has 59 catches for 750 yards and has been a steady safety valve for Romo.
The Packers front-four generates a ton of pressure, and are athletic enough to overcome the size of Dallas’s offensive line. However, Romo is insanely quick and instinctive and escapes the pass rush extremely well. He has been sacked 16 times, but Green Bay has to be careful because flushing Romo out of the pocket usually puts him in his elements, since he loves bootlegging with broken plays and calling it off the cuff. Green Bay ranks eighteenth in the league, averaging 215.3 passing yards per game.
NFL Football Betting Trends
-Green Bay is 9-1-1 ATS this season
-Green Bay is 5-0 ATS on the road this season
-Dallas is 5-0 ATS at home this season
-Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games playing Dallas
-Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
-Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games against Green Bay
Final Verdict
The Dallas defense has always been a concern. Despite having the second most prolific offense in the league, Dallas still allows an absurd amount of points on the board. You can’t win championships with a defense that lets other teams stay in the game.
Brett Favre has a never-say-die attitude that plays until the final whistle. Plus, the magical season that the Packers are having hits Dallas at the perfect time. Favre is too much of a veteran to get rattled by a big game like this, and has all the tools to rip this secondary apart. Dallas lost the last big game at home, and the smart betting investor will put a stake in history repeating itself.
Green Bay Packers (10-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (10-1)
Thursday, November 28th — Texas Stadium, Dallas — 8:15pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Dallas -6.5 (51.5)
NFL Free Pick: Green Bay 31 Dallas 27
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