NFL & NCAA Football Parity – Tony George
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Posted on 9/19/2007 7:43:15 AM
Does a loud mouth Tout really get humbled in Week 2 of the Season? – By: Tony George
Thought that headline might grab your attention folks! Looking at this past weekend, the contrarians handicapper or sports bettor, fared much much better than the conventional sports handicapper who looks at stats, past results and injury reports. Unfortunately I was the latter this past weekend, and as always, I tell it like it is, and call them like I see them. I would be remised in my reporting if I did not mention that after a solid 8-4 start in the College football ranks ATS, I managed 2 wins on Thursday and then proceeded to get skunked on a Saturday at 0-4 ATS with my top plays, the first time I got shut out on any Saturday since 2003, week 2 again ironically.
The word that comes to mind is PARITY. I guess we better learn to allaccpet it and put it in our handicapping arsenal like the NFL. Who other than USC or LSU is predictable in college football right now? Iowa losing to Iowa State, when Iowa State had been dominated in the previous 2 weeks by Northern Iowa and Kent State? What is up with that?
What in the world happened to the Pac 10’s #2 team, closely followed by Cal, and I am talking UCLA? Going out to Utah and getting blown out by a team without their starting QB, who I successfully went against the week before with Air Force as a 7 point road pup, only to have them win outright at Utah. The though of Utah covering against UCLA was scary enough for some bettors, but who thought they would embarrass the surging Bruins? It was not even a game folks. Speaking of Pac 10, has anyone else been noticing the beating that Cal is laying on people?
How about Notre Dame’s demise? Now I know that they are always overrated, and I am a gold dome hater, but what in the hell was that? You are ranked in the top 10 in recruiting every year, so we all know you have good players who everyone else in the USA wants on their roster. There is NO doubt about that. But letting Michigan who has stunk up the joint and made national headlines the first 2 weeks of the season as Lloyd Carr had a bounty on his head, beat the living tar out of you in a national TV Game. Can anyone think that Charlie Weis has not done a good job coaching yet? He has not beat a top 10 team in his tenure and looks to maybe win 2 games this year. Should have skipped the contract extension after his second year and tried to hire George O’Leary back, who was busy at Central Florida almost upsetting #6 Texas this weekend! By the way, Texas is overrated and Central Florida is a good football team.
Past NCAA giants like Auburn getting peppered at home by lowly Miss. State, or once proud and dominant Nebraska at home, a mere early evening triscut for the USC Trojans who humiliated my beloved Huskers Saturday Night in Lincoln, with the worst beat down Nebraska has ever had in Lincoln in my memory. Tennessee getting lit up for 59 points by Florida in a heated rivalry game? Talk about overrated in Knoxville. The Vols played 2 ranked teams this year and got destroyed, and their defense gave up 104 points in those 2 games. What is going on folks?
I will tell you, it is called parity. Other than maybe the top 5 teams, anything other that a 6-9 point spread is a dangerous thing nowadays. Arkansas State getting 19 points against Tennessee after leading Texas and losing by only 8 at Austin in their opener and then pounding SMU last week 49-28 as a 3 point favorite at home? Wow, are the Vols in bounceback mode or shock? Could you possibly lay 19 points with a team who got waxed and beat up by 39 points in a rivalry game? The contrarian handciapper in me says lay it, but the conventional capper in me says take the points. See the delima in sports handicapping folks! I do not buy media hype in any terms, and the rankings are a joke.
I can assure you I will do better, but after looking at some of the scores and surprises in Week 3 of the college season, and the 2nd full Saturday of games, even an ol’ pro like Tony George is slightly gun shy to pull the trigger. The national rankings bear little meaning to the true value of any team, and the second Saturday of the season adds some credence to that argument. Time to get to work in the NCAA, and conference play on a consistent weekly basis cannot come quick enough for me.
Another team with questions on offense is Cleveland, at quarterback. Coach Romeo Crennel said Charlie Frye is the starter, Derek Anderson is second and rookie Brady Quinn is the third QB. That’s a LOT of youth! Because of this, the Browns have not been an offensive machine, ranking 31st in total offense in 2006. Cleveland is also 4-0 under the total their last four NFL regular season openers.
We all know Pro Football has massive Parity, but then again there were some real shockers this weekend. While I fared better in the NFL, my big game was the Bengals who were lit up by a 2nd string QB and a lowly team in the Browns for 51 points in a loss. Unreal that the Browns traded their week 1 QB starter away on Thursday huh? If QB Anderson continues down this road, they’ll be trading Brady Quinn in the off-season! Jamal Lewis actually looked like he had break away speed. Chad Johnson’s sideline and end zone antic’s will provide little humor in Monday morning film sessions. It might be a good idea to learn how to cover receivers and tackle in Bengals practice this week.
The Rams, a sleeper pick by myself at the beginning of the season in the NFC have started out 0-2, at home this season with the leading RB in all purpose yards in 2006 rendered ineffective in the first 2 weeks at helping them win? Say it isn’t so folks! The 49ers in week 1 looked horrific on offense, who would have thunk they could outscore the high powered Rams in week 2 in a blowout win? I passed on this one but was in shock at the outcome!
The Carolina Panthers were picked by many to go the Super Bowl this year! Say what? After beating the Rams in week 1 after getting numerous turnovers, they were soundly hammered to death at home by everyone’s whipping boy, the Houston Texans at home by 13 points as a TD favorite at home. Did I just write the Texans on the road hammered a possible Super Bowl contender to death? I must be drunk, or simply reading the boxscores upside down!
I mentioned my sleeper ATS team at the beginning of the season, and wanted to point out that Arizona is 1-0-1 ATS so far with an outright win of division rival Seattle as a 6 point dog on Sunday. Of course I passed on them thinking the Giants would rebound at home against a Packer Team who failed to score a TD at home in week 1, and watched that debacle unfold as Brett Favre enjoyed one of his better days in the past 3 years. Once again, who would have thunk it huh? The G-Men should have fired Tom Coughlin last year when they had the chance, the guy is a freaking idiot and has no tolerance for any of his players, he seems to despise them as a matter of fact. The look on his face reminds me of my father-in-laws look when I told him I was going to marry his little girl!
UNDERDOGS went 11-3-1 ATS on Sunday Folks. Now trends reverse themselves all the time in the NFL and they eventually even out. Neither myself or oddsmakers had a clue that 11 out of 15 dogs would bite on Sunday, and from numerous articles I have seen and guys in the industry I spoke with, the sportsbooks won big on Sunday and the players lost their butts, especially in the early games. NO NEED TO PANIC. I had a tough week and so did many other professional guys, and in some cases I had guys on my site with huge days both on Saturday and Sunday. My hat is off to them, they were better than me The contrarian handicapper this week may in fact fare better again and I can assure you I am looking at reasons to take dogs both in the NCAA and NFL this week in my approach, playing devils advocate in every scenario.
While never considering myself a loud mouthed tout, just a sports handicapper, this weekend’s results overall as I watched these games unfold, I admit I was humbled and gained respect for the parity in both NCAA football and NFL. It will help my bankroll down the road.
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