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Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Guardians/Rangers UNDER 7.5

The Key: The Guardians and Rangers are both UNDER teams with great staffs and terrible lineups.  The Guardians are scoring 4.1 RPG and yielding 4.0 RPG, while the Rangers are scoring 3.9 RPG and yielding 3.9 RPG.  These teams went for 5 combined runs in Game 1 and 6 combined runs in Game 2.  Joey Cantillo is 4-2 with a 4.06 ERA in 13 starts this year yielding only 8 HR in 62 innings.  He yielded 2 ER in 5 2/3 innings in his lone lifetime start against Texas.  The Guardians have a 3.68 ERA as a bullpen.  Jacob DeGrom is 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts this year, and 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 5 home starts.  Texas has a 3.27 ERA as a bullpen.  Take the UNDER.

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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Angels/Dodgers OVER 8.5

Two struggling starters square off Sunday when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of this interleague rivalry.  The Dodgers covered this total on their own in Game 2, and they are likely to do the heavy lifting for us again today.

Jose Soriano has allowed 11 earned runs and 25 base runners in 17 innings in his last three starts.  One of those starts came against the Dodgers on May 16th when he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 15-2 loss.  The Dodgers have the advantage getting to see him for the 2nd time in three weeks.

Emmet Sheehan is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 11 starts this season allowing 29 earned runs and 11 homers in 58 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Sheehan allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Angels in his lone career start against them.  

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Angels and Dodgers with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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Ricky's 1* play on TEX.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Texas are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.

- Texas are  4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.

- Texas are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the American League.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

OVER 8

Locking this in early. Washington and Arizona clash and this is a good over spot. Washington sends out Cade Cavalli, who goes up against an Arizona offense that loves to work counts. This is a spot for them to produce a lot of baserunners and give themselves plenty of scoring chances. Arizona counters with Mike Soroka, who was knocked around for 4 runs in his last outing. This Washington offense continues to produce and they’re one of the best at coming up with big innings. Grab the over. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Reds +121

1* FREE INFO PLAY Reds vs Cardinals over 8½ -120

1* MLB - Giants/Cubs FREE PICK on Cubs -116 

This is a FREE PLAY on the Padres.

The Padres finally snapped a six-game slide and they also avenged a 5-0 loss in the opener of this three-game series vs. the Mets with yesterday's 3-2 victory and now I think the home side will find a way to win in the finale. The Padres are now 17-17 at home, but the Mets are still only 13-21 on the road.

I think that Randy Vasquez (5-3, 3.31 ERA) is the correct call in this matchup as well at home at this price.

As of writing, the Mets' starter isn't known. It could be Manea, or it could be Bazoban. Or a combination of both?! 

Either way, this is an "action" wager, as I expect Vasquez to get the start for San Diego and I believe he'll lead his team to a much-needed series victory.

Consider SAN DIEGO.

Good luck, NP

1 Unit FREE PLAY on A's -105

Gage Jump is one of the top prospects for the A"s.  He has fared well in his 2 starts this year with a 3.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP yielding 5 earned runs in 12 innings without a home run.  Mike Burrows is one of the worst starters in the league going 3-7 with a 5.66 ERA in 12 starts this season.  Burrows is 1-3 with a 7.26 ERA in six home starts.  He has given up 18 earned runs and 7 home runs in 23 2/3 innings in his last four starts.  The A's want this game more to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Astros.  Give me the A's.

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1* Free Pick on Reds/Cardinals: over 8½

The price moved to -120 for a reason.

Both starters today are walking xERA time bombs, and the conditions in St.

Louis favor offense.

Cardinals righty Michael McGreevy looks great on paper at 2.98 ERA, but the underlying numbers tell a different story.

His xERA sits at 5.70, his xBA at .294, and his xSLG at a brutal .516.

That kind of gap between results and contact quality doesn't hold forever.

Reds starter Rhett Lowder is the more obvious problem.

He carries a 5.40 ERA and a 5.07 xERA, and his last two starts before the IL were a disaster.

He gave up 11 earned runs and 8 walks across 4.1 innings against Pittsburgh and Chicago.

He's coming back from shoulder weakness into a hitter's environment.

Weather is doing real work here.

It's 82 degrees, feels like 86, with a 13 MPH wind blowing from the SSE.

That's a ball-carrying setup at Busch in June.

The opposition case is real.

Elly De La Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Jose Trevino are all on the IL, which gut-punches the Cincinnati lineup.

That's the strongest argument for the Under, and I get it.

But Nathaniel Lowe, Eugenio Suarez, and Spencer Steer can still do damage against a pitcher giving up this much hard contact, and the Cardinals' lineup gets the bigger gift facing Lowder.

The Over has hit in 8 of Cincinnati's last 12 and 5 of their last 6 on the road.

I like the Over

My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan was a hard-luck loser in his most recent start as he held the Diamondbacks to just two earned runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 4-1 defeat. He's quietly pitched well lately, working at least six innings and allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. It's been a much different story for Angels starter Jose Soriano. He got off to a fantastic start this season but his numbers have regressed back to the mean lately as he's been tagged for 13 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 22 innings. His career FIP is 3.77 and his 2026 FIP has gradually moved back toward that number, currently a 3.68 and climbing. Here, he'll face a Dodgers lineup that he's kept in check to the tune of just five hits in 37 at-bats (.135) to go along with a .454 OPS. With that being said, only Alex Call has seen him more than five times and he owns a pedestrian 11:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. The Dodgers check in ranked fifth in the majors in xwOBA over the last week while the Angels sit in 15th. The bullpen matchup certainly favors the home side. Los Angeles' bullpen has logged a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with nine saves converted and only three blown at home. The Angels 'pen on the other hand has posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with two saves converted and six blown on the road. Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (8*).

AAA Sports' Selection: Athletics/Houston Astros (OVER).

The Athletics will start Gage Jump -- Still very young and inexperienced with just two starts this year and in his career.

The A's have seen the total go OVER in seven of their L9 games played this season.

Houston will start Mike Burrows -- He has an awful 7.26 earned run average at home this year.

The OVER is 5-1 over the L6 games between these two teams.

With the way these teams are playing, the play is on another OVER today.

Guardians vs Rangers MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot to back the Texas Rangers, who had won six of seven before getting blanked 6–0 by Cleveland yesterday. With Guardians left-hander Joey Cantillo (4-2, 3.92 ERA) struggling lately and giving up four runs in each of his last two starts, it is hard to see Texas getting shut out again, and Jacob deGrom (4–4, 3.48 ERA) typically does not need a ton of run support to put his team in position to win anyhow. 

The Bet: RANGERS (3%). 

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PSP Data Driven 1* A's.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Athletics are 9-4 SU in its last 13 games against Houston. Houston are 2-4 in its last 6 games when playing at home against Athletics.

(#962) Chicago Cubs | ML | . 

Trevor McDonald (2-3, 4.50 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.13 ERA) . 

After beginning the season really well, Trevor McDonald hasn't been great lately. As a matter of fact, he's allowed 13 runs over his past three starts (12 earned runs,) while losing all three of those matchups. San Francisco did score 30 runs over its past two games before yesterday's extra innings loss. But, considering the Giants were only able to muster two runs yesterday & only five hits, I expect them to have trouble once again on Sunday. 

On the other hand, Chicago will turn to Jameson Taillon who's coming off one of his best starts of the season. While his numbers aren't great so far, I definitely like what I've seen from the Cubs opposed to the Giants this season. Ride the hot wave. Give me the Cubbies. 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Cubs