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Posted on 11/30/2007 2:44 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Betting – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Preview
The Jacksonville Jaguars are starting to show a startling amount of resolve as they prowl their way towards the playoffs. A win in this game, on the road against Indianapolis, would put them in a dead heat with their division rival. A win for the Colts all but seals their AFC South title aspirations. Can the Jags extend an impressive three game winning streak?
Jacksonville Offense vs. Indianapolis Defense
After surviving the Quinn Gray Experience of 2007, David Garrard has returned to save this team once more. He is playing incredibly smart football, having still not thrown an interception this season. Since returning, Garrard has averaged 242.5 passing yards and logged three touchdowns in two games.
However, Indianapolis is a tough team to throw against. They usually hold off opponents to 161.9 passing yards and are third in the league in points allowed (only 15.2 points per game). In their last meeting, the Colts held Garrard and the Jaguars to seven points.
Jacksonville will have trouble revving up the rushing game against Indianapolis’s tough rushing defense. The Colts give up 102.9 rush yards per game, but Bob Sanders should be fully healthy once more, making life terribly unfortunate for Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Colts defense rarely gives up big plays, and Jacksonville lacks the receiver set, or the rushing attack, to bust off big plays in the face of the third best defense in the NFL.
Indianapolis Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
The Colts played smart against Jacksonville last time and will play keep-away ball once more. Joseph Addai does not seem to be slowed by his injury this week, and even if he is, Kenton Keith is a suitable replacement. The Colts average 123.6 rushing yards per game and Jacksonville gives up 99.7 yards per game on the ground.
Peyton Manning will have a full complement of receiver, minus Marvin Harrison who remains out with a knee injury. The Colts average 248.4 passing yards per game and Peyton Manning is deadly through the air – which is exactly why the Colts will run the ball on Sunday.
Jacksonville will come out with more defensive-backs in this game to counter Peyton’s offensive efficiency in a dome setting. That being said, the Colts have the third best home rushing offense (144.4 yards per home game) and will use it to take control of the clock and keep the Jaguars offensive opportunities to a minimum. The Jaguars have size on defense, but they lack speed. And the Colts are all about finesse and velocity downhill.
NFL Betting Trends
-Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
-Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
-Indianapolis is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
-total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis last 6 games
-Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Final Verdict
The Jaguars need this game to make a statement that they have arrived and ready to compete for an opportunity to get molested by the Patriots in the playoffs. However, downing the rival Colts will be a daunting task. The Colts are undefeated in their division and that is a betting trend you can expect to continue. Jacksonville won’t get enough chances to score points in this game, while Indy plays smart, short-yard football as they control the clock and take the victory in the RCA Dome.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (9-2)
Sunday, December 2nd — RCA Dome, Indianapolis — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Indianapolis -7 (45)
NFL Free Pick: Jacksonville 10 Indianapolis 24
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