2025 PGA Tour Picks
It’s 2025 BMW Championship free picks time. The second of three FedEx Cup Playoffs events is here, and the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings are set to tee it up at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. With just one more cut to come before the season-ending Tour Championship at East Lake, the pressure is ratcheting up for everyone in the field.
2025 BMW Championship
- Where: Caves Valley Golf Club; Owings Mills, Maryland
- Date: August 14–17, 2025
- Format: Strokes
- Defending Champion: Keegan Bradley
- TV Coverage: NBC, Golf Channel
This week’s tournament trims the playoff field from 50 players down to 30 for the Tour Championship.
Every swing counts, with next week’s season finale carrying massive implications for the FedEx Cup title — and for entry into next year’s signature events with elevated purses and points.
This Week on the PGA Tour
Jordan Spieth entered last week’s tournament inside the top 50 at 48, but he fell back five spots after a T38 finish at 3-under at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Meanwhile, Rickie Fowler played his way into this week’s tournament.
After entering the FedEx St. Jude Championship ranked 64th in the FedEx Cup standings, he put his best foot forward in Memphis, especially on Sunday when the pressure was on.
In fact, Fowler made multiple clutch putts, including a key 10-foot birdie putt on 15 and a par-saving 8.5-footer on 17. As a result, the T6 finish was good enough to help him climb up to 48th in the FedExCup Playoff standings.
In the end, it was Justin Rose outlasting J.J. Spaun in a playoff to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis. Notably, Rose made up a three-shot deficit over the final five holes on Sunday to force the playoff, then sank a birdie putt on the third playoff hole and clinched the victory when Spaun failed to convert his attempt.
The Top 50
Ultimately, the top 50 players advance not only to the BMW Championship and the next round of the playoffs, but the cut-off also serves as a marker for new year’s signature events.
Furthermore, those players advancing also qualified for all eight of the Tour’s signature events and their elevated purses and increased FedEx Cup points next year.
Rory McIlroy had made the decision to sit out the FedEx St. Jude Championship with his spot in the Tour Championship all but secured, entering last week locked into second in the FedEx Cup standings.
Even so, after missing the tournament and the points available, Rory dropped only one spot, from second to third, with J.J. Spaun passing him.
Past BMW Championship Winners (2015–2024)
- 2024 – Keegan Bradley (USA) – Castle Pines
- 2023 – Viktor Hovland (Norway) – Olympia Fields
- 2022 – Patrick Cantlay (USA) – Wilmington
- 2021 – Patrick Cantlay (USA) – Caves Valley
- 2020 – Jon Rahm (Spain) – Olympia Fields
- 2019 – Justin Thomas (USA) – Medinah
- 2018 – Keegan Bradley (USA) – Aronimink
- 2017 – Marc Leishman (Australia) – Conway Farms
- 2016 – Dustin Johnson (USA) – Crooked Stick
- 2015 – Jason Day (Australia) – Conway Farms
Full Handicapping Odds To Win The 2025 BMW Championship
Here are the latest odds to win this week’s stop on the PGA Tour. Always shop multiple sportsbooks to get the best number.
2025 BMW Championship – The Favorites
First of all, this group represents the elite contenders most likely to be in the mix on Sunday at Caves Valley. Additionally, their consistent form and proven ability under pressure make them the safest bets on the board.
- Scottie Scheffler +230
- Rory McIlroy +700
- Xander Schauffele +2000
- Tommy Fleetwood +2000
- Patrick Cantlay +2200
- Justin Thomas +2200
- Ludvig Aberg +2500
2025 BMW Championship – The Value
These players offer strong upside without the heavy favorite price tag. Furthermore, their recent performances suggest they could easily contend if a few key putts drop.
- J.J. Spaun +3000
- Collin Morikawa +3000
- Cameron Young +3000
- Sam Burns +3000
- Russell Henley +3000
- Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
- Keegan Bradley +3500
- Ben Griffin +3500
- Viktor Hovland +3500
- Justin Rose +4000
- Sepp Straka +4000
- Chris Gotterup +4500
- Hideki Matsuyama +5000
- Corey Conners +5000
- Sungjae Im +5000
- Robert MacIntyre +5500
- Rickie Fowler +5500
- Kurt Kitayama +5500
- Harris English +5500
- Akshay Bhatia +5500
- Shane Lowry +5500
BMW Championship – The Longshots
By contrast, this tier is made up of players flying under the radar with the potential to surprise. A few favorable bounces could push one of them into contention late.
- Maverick McNealy +6000
- Harry Hall +6000
- Taylor Pendrith +6500
- Jason Day +7000
- Andrew Novak +7000
- Si Woo Kim +7000
- Denny McCarthy +8000
- Brian Harman +9000
- Nick Taylor +10000
- J.T. Poston +10000
- Daniel Berger +10000
BMW Championship – “We’re Not Sure You Should Invest With These Guys”
These names come with plenty of volatility for bettors. On the other hand, golf’s unpredictability means even this group can’t be fully counted out.
- Lucas Glover +11000
- Sam Stevens +11000
- Ryan Fox +11000
- Jhonattan Vegas +12000
- Jacob Bridgeman +12000
- Bud Cauley +12000
- Thomas Detry +12000
- Ryan Gerard +12000
- Michael Kim +15000
- Tom Hoge +25000
- Brian Campbell +40000
2025 BMW Championship Free Picks – PGA Golf
Looking for sharp bets? These are our top value plays this week:
2025 BMW Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Scottie Scheffler +230
Scheffler was a contender in Memphis, but his putter just wasn’t there for him on Sunday. Nevertheless, he’s right back to being installed as a heavy favorite for this week, and outside of Sunday’s blip, his putter’s been on point to pair with his elite ball-striking.
As a result, he remains a player who can win every time out.
2025 BMW Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Rory McIlroy +700
Rory is the only player in this week’s field who was off last week. Therefore, sitting out the heat in Memphis should give him a slight edge this week.
After an understandable lull following his historic Masters victory, Rory’s bounced back with T6, T2, and T7 finishes in his last three starts.
2025 BMW Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Ludvig Aberg +2500
Elite ball strikers will fare well this week, and Aberg certainly belongs in that mix. In fact, he has top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts, and the generous fairways at Caves Valley should suit his game quite well.
Consequently, he’s been on point with his approach game of late, so a breakthrough could be coming for him soon.
2025 BMW Championship Free Picks & Golf Betting Odds: Viktor Hovland +3500
He was getting punished in Memphis with tee shots that kept missing the fairway. However, he’ll have more runway this week at Caves Valley.
Ultimately, his ball striking will get him there; he just needs to get hot with the putter to capitalize on his approach.
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PGA Twitter
“You just know what’s at stake getting into that top 50”
🗣️ Bubble boys Rickie Fowler, Kurt Kitayama, Bud Cauley, Jhonattan Vegas and J.T. Poston on what it means to lock up a spot in the 2026 Signature Events. pic.twitter.com/OZzq9fMMRK
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 11, 2025
Free Picks & PGA Golf Betting Prediction:
Indeed, the FedEx Cup Playoffs are heating up, and Caves Valley is the perfect stage for high drama. With East Lake just one week away, expect aggressive play from those on the bubble and smart course management from the top contenders. Who’s your pick to win it all? Drop your predictions below and check back for updated PGA betting insights.
All in all, you can always find more FREE PGA TOUR Golf predictions from the team at CappersPicks.com. Additionally, check back daily for updated picks, props, and playoff previews.
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