Free NCAA Hoops Pick: Cougars vs. Bears CBB Odds
Looking for Houston Cougars vs. Baylor Bears NCAA basketball free picks & CBB odds? CBB betting sees the Cougars taking on the Bears on Saturday, April 3rd, 2021 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all college basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily basketball predictions like this Cougars Bears matchup.
2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament
(28-3) #2 Houston Cougars vs. #1 Baylor Bears (26-2)
Date: Saturday, April 3rd
Time: 5:15 PM ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
CBB Moneyline Odds: Cougars +190 | Bears -220
CBB Betting Odds: Baylor -5
CBB Betting Total: O/U 134.5
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The Houston Cougars and Baylor Bears are going to be squaring off in the Final Four on Saturday to see who gets the chance to play in the National Championship game on Monday Night.
The Bears open up as a five-point favorite over the Cougars and have taken in 67% of the bets so far. Houston took down Oregon State in the Elite Eight 67-61 and was the first team ever to face only double-digit seeds before advancing to the Final Four. The Bears on the other hand took down the #3 seed in their region in Arkansas 81-72 to move into this game.
Houston will be looking to advance to its first National Championship game since the 1984 season when Phi Slama Jama was rockin’ the Astro Dome. Kelvin Sampson has the opportunity to reach his first National Championship game in his coaching career with a win. The Cougars were the first time in NCAA tournament history to reach the Final Four by knocking off strictly double-digit seeds.
This game is going to be the toughest task for the Cougars all year. The Bears are easily the best two-way unit they will face all season, and there won’t be many chances to benefit from mistakes.
The Cougs are led by junior Quentin Grimes. He leads the team in scoring with 18.0 points per game on the year and oddly enough that’s his NCAA tournament average as well through four games. The 6’5 guard is going to have his hands full though being guarded by the AP defensive player of the year in Davion Mitchell in this contest.
If Houston wants any shot at winning this game they need to crash the glass like they have been all season. They have the best offensive rebounding rate in the country and pull in about 14 offensive rebounds per game. As long as they are getting extra shot opportunities and keeping the ball out of Baylor’s hand the Cougars may have the chance to pull off the upset.
As a team, Houston averages 76.61 points per game while shooting 43.70% from the floor and 35.45% from beyond the arc.
Defensively, the Cougars surrender 57.58 points per game which was pegged as the third-best mark in the country. They hold opponents to shoot 37.30% from the field and just 28.29% from three-point range.
Baylor is just one win away from the school’s first National Championship game appearance since 1947. Scott Drew has elevated this Baylor program to one of the more prestigious schools in the country in the last decade. He has brought them to a 52-6 record in the last two seasons and they are just two wins away from capturing the school’s first National Championship.
The Bears roll out the best three-guard lineup in the country headlined by All-American Jared Butler. Butler leads Baylor in scoring with 16.5 points per game. He is one of the best three-point shooters in the country knocking down 2.5 out of 6.1 attempts per game. That makes him a 40% three-point shooter on the year.
MaCio Teague may have the weirdest shooting motion in college basketball since Lonzo Ball, but hey whatever works. The Senior is chipping in 15.9 points per game for Baylor and I would say is the team’s most effective scorer. They also have Davion Mitchell who was just named the AP defensive player of the year and is probably the best playmaker on this team. Mitchell averages 14.1 points per game, but his 5.3 assists leads the team.
On defense, Baylor has the ability to turn it up a notch and lockdown whenever they want. For example, with less than 10 minutes to go in the Villanova game the score was tied at 41-41 before the Bears ended the game on a 21-10 run to sure up a spot in the Elite Eight. They forced seven turnovers in the last 10 minutes and 16 alone in the second half of that game. Opponents are shooting 43.24% from the floor and 33.02% beyond the arc when facing Baylor. They average the ninth most steals in the country with 9.0 per game as well.
CBB Betting Trends:
- Houston is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games.
- Houston is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
- Houston is 11-0 SU in their last 11 games this season.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Baylor’s last 16 games.
- Baylor is 18-2 SU in their last 20 games.
- Baylor is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games this season.
- Baylor is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played on a Saturday.
Free Houston Cougars vs. Baylor Bears NCAAB Prediction:
I like Baylor and the number in this game as well as the over. Houston has had the easiest path to the Final Four ever, literally. They have gotten to play double-digit seeds up until this point and are going to have to face a #1 seed now.
These teams are built pretty similarly, but Baylor’s athletes should be able to jump out of the gym compared to what Houston is going to throw out there. Quentin Grimes is a great guard in his own right, but he is going to be guarded by the AP defensive player of the year in Davion Mitchell.
Baylor has three interchangeable guards and with the development of Adam Flagler over the last two games Scott Drew may even have a fourth scoring option if Teague, Butler, and Mithcell continue to have off shooting nights. Also, Mathew Mayer could start for a lot of teams in the country, but he comes off the bench for the Bears.
The Cougars would basically need to play a perfect game to take down Baylor. Give me the Bears in a route as Houston won’t be able to keep up the scoring with the Baylor guards.
4* Free CBB Betting Pick: Baylor -5 / Over 134.5
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