Free NBA Pick: Nuggets vs. Pacers Odds
Looking for Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Nuggets taking on the Pacers on November 7th at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. This free NBA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Nuggets Pacers matchup.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers
Here’s why I’m backing Denver ATS in my Nuggets Pacers free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Nuggets vs. Pacers Gameday
Denver and Indiana travel to Mexico City on November 7th for an NBA matchup at Arena CDMX. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00 ET, with both teams still trying to find their rhythm and, in the case of the Pacers — get healthy.
It’s the fifth consecutive year the NBA is showcasing a match in Mexico City and the 16th time overall.
Per ESPN: It wasn’t bad enough that Tyrese Haliburton is out for at least two weeks because of a hamstring injury. Indiana’s entire starting five sat out Monday’s game, albeit the second night of a back-to-back, giving the Pacers visions of last season when injuries to Haliburton started a wave throughout the roster.
Indiana will have to survive this early-season slog and hope for a throwback to two years ago. The Pacers were under .500 in mid-December before turning their season around in January with a run that carried them to the Finals. — Jamal Collier
Denver has looked closer to themselves lately with three wins in their last four outings. The Pacers have just three wins this season, but as noted, have been devastated by injuries.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers Odds & Previous Games
In history, these teams have played on 104 occasions, with the Nuggets having the 57-47 edge. Last year, Denver won both meetings.
Both clubs will be dealing with altitude as this game is being played in Mexico City. Entering this match, each squad last played on Wednesday to allow for the travel.
In their last matches, Denver lit up the Raptors in the second half to collect a 128-109 win while the Pacers beat the Grizzlies 107-103.
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Nuggets Stats
Denver ranked first offensively (121.2) and 21st defensively (116.0), while they were seventh in net rating (+5.2) and ranked 20th in pace (99.49).
The West’s third seed averaged 122.1 points per game while its opponents averaged 116.9 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Denver averages 29.0 (fourth) and 44.0 (14th), respectively.
Per John Schuhmann: Last season (true shooting percentage of 62.2%) was the most efficient season of Jamal Murray’s career, and he’s been even sharper through five games this year (64.4%). Amazingly, that’s with him having made just four (24%) of his 17 mid-range attempts. His efficiency has been all about his 3-point shooting (23-for-43, 53%) and his career-high free throw rate (37.2 attempts per 100 shots from the field). He was 7-for-9 from deep and 12-for-15 from the line as he scored 39 points in Phoenix on Friday.
Team leaders* in key categories were Nikola Jokic for scoring (27.7), **rebounding (12.9), assists (10.7), and steals (1.4), while Peyton Watson led in blocks (1.1).
As for perimeter efficiency, the Nuggets as a team shot 39.6% (1st in the NBA) with 12 (!!!) players shooting above the league average.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Pacers Stats
Indy ranked 27th (110.0) on offense and 27th on defense (118.2). Additionally, the Pacers were 27th in net rating (-8.2) and ran the eighth-quickest pace (101.63).
The East’s 13th seed averaged 112.6 points per game, while their opponents averaged 120.7 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Indy averaged 27.5 (11th) and 41.7 (26th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories were Pascal Siakam for scoring (23.9 points) as well as for rebounds (6.6) and steals (1.1), while Andrew Nembhard led for assists (7.7), and Jay Huff for blocks (1.8).
From the perimeter, Indy averaged 35.6 percent, and has nine players shooting league average or better.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Nuggets vs. Pacers Key Matchup
Per usual, Nikola Jokic is the key to game plan for, and if Ivica Zubac is out (he’s NOT on the injury report), that’ll be a steep hill to climb. That said, the short-handed Pacers beat the red-hot Grizzlies, so anything is possible.
Murray, however, has been the most consistent Nugget and will get plenty of attention from Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell (if he’s cleared to play).
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With the numerous Pacers out, the weight of scoring falls on Pascal Siakam. The forward is averaging 21.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game.
Andrew Nembhard takes on a larger role with Haliburton out. He’s averaging 19 points and 6.9 assists.
Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers bottom line: Without Haliburton, the Nuggets have the top two players on the court. Jokic is coming off yet another triple-double effort as he nears the top of that statistical category to become the all-time leader.
Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers Basketball Betting Trends
- Under is 4-0 in the Pacers’ last 4 home games.
- Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in the Pacers’ last 6 overall.
- Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in the Pacers’ last 6 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
- Under is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last 6 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
Nuggets Pacers Free Pick: Nuggets -7.5
Here is my Nuggets Pacers free pick: I’m playing Denver ATS and to win the match. Both teams will be dealing with the altitude of Mexico City, but the Nuggets will fare better in that environment given they play at altitude at home.
Per John Schuhmann: The Pacers’ projected starting lineup has played in just one game together. Quenton Jackson has played more minutes than Haliburton, Larry Nance Jr. has played more than Zubac, and Indiana has scored an anemic 89 points per 100 minutes in the 71 minutes that Jackson and Nance have been on the floor together.
Couple that with the Nuggets being healthier and having Jokic, and that should equate to them winning this match.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
Best Sportsbooks For Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers NBA Gambling Today!
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— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) November 4, 2026
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