Free NBA Pick: Thunder vs. Grizzlies Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Grizzlies on November 6th at FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN. This free NBA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Thunder Grizzlies matchup.
2026 NBA Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thunder -3.5 | Grizzlies +3.5Here’s why I’m backing Oklahoma City ATS in my Thunder Grizzlies free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Gameday
OKC travels to Memphis on November 6th for an NBA matchup at FedEx Forum. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 ET, with both teams entering the match with identical 6-2 records.
The Thunder continue to win despite being devastated by injury, while the Grizzlies are defying the odds as this season’s Cinderella squad.
Both squads will be looking to send a message to the other about who is the better squad.
Per ESPN: After last season’s trade deadline, Grizzlies general manager Zach Kleiman expressed confidence in what was left in Memphis after jettisoning key players — Desmond Bane the previous summer and later Jaren Jackson Jr. — from a roster previously expected to contend for years to come.
Kleiman moved the final player, Ja Morant, in June. But on that February day, Kleiman discussed his “conviction” in “pivoting to a younger build” that was “not going to be some drawn-out five-year process.” Perhaps he was right, considering Memphis’ 6-1 start behind young players such as Cameron Boozer and Cedric Coward taking on major roles alongside a resurgent Ty Jerome.— Wright
For the Thunder, they want to let Memphis know their early run was due to an easier schedule, while the Grizzlies are anxious to show they are contenders and their record isn’t a fluke.
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OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds & Previous Games
In history, the teams have played 112 times in the regular season, with the Thunder holding the 77-35 edge. Last year, OKC swept the three-game series.
Entering this match, the Thunder are coming off consecutive convincing wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Memphis enters having lost consecutive games, with the most recent being a 103-107 loss to the injury-riddled Pacers.
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Thunder Stats
OKC ranked seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder held the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and ran the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averaged 119.4 points per game while its opponents averaged 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averaged 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
Per John Schuhmann: Chet Holmgren (right knee injury) has joined Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace on the list of Thunder players who are out long-term, and Alex Caruso has missed the last two games with a sprained ankle. After a 4-0 start, Oklahoma City has dropped two by a total of 45 points. That’s already as many losses by more than 20 as they had all of last season (two) and more than they had in 2024-25 (one).
OKC’s team leaders* were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
Grizzlies Stats
The Grizzlies ranked tied for 22nd offensively (113.3), tied for 24th defensively (117.0), with the 22nd-ranked net rating of (-3.8), and ran the 10th-fastest pace (101.48).
The Grizzlies averaged 115.3 points per game while their opponents averaged 119.1 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Memphis averaged 28.2 (ninth) and 43.1 (20th), respectively.
Memphis’ team leaders* were Ty Jerome for scoring (19.9), Ja Morant for assists (8.1), and steals (1.0), and Zach Edey for rebounds (11.1) and blocks (1.9).
The Grizzlies shot 35.5% from the perimeter, with four players shooting above league average.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Key Matchup
With so many Thunder players out, the emphasis on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will increase, but he’ll need help, which should come from Ajay Mitchell.
Mark Daigneault may also look to utilize his incredible depth up front, and despite Holmgren’s absence, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, and Aday Mara should give them more than enough options.
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Memphis offers balanced scoring and is a super fun watch. Tuomas Iisalo has his squad dialed in and believing in themselves.
Ty Jerome is the key scorer, averaging 27.4 points, while rookie Cameron Boozer is doing it all with 16.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game.
OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies bottom line: Memphis has looked sharp to start the season, but with consecutive losses, the question is whether they are ready to take on the upper echelon. And, while the Thunder aren’t at full strength, their depth is still something to behold.
OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Basketball Betting Trends
- Under is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 road games.
- Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings.
- Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Thunder Grizzlies Free Pick: Thunder -3.5
Here is my Thunder Grizzlies free pick: I’m playing the Thunder ATS to win and cover. Memphis got out to a great start and was using their length upfront to give teams nightmares, but the Thunder are the one team in the league with copious options in the front court even with Chet Holmgren out.
That length can counter anything the Grizzlies serve up and should be the difference in this outing.
Per ESPN: The injuries to four All-Defensive players — Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso — have robbed the Thunder of one of their offensive superpowers. The Thunder have averaged only 11.8 points off of turnovers in the past four games, which ranks third to last in the league during that span.
By contrast, Oklahoma City led the NBA in points off of turnovers in each of the past three seasons
Plus, for as great as Ty Jerome has played, he’s not on the same level as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is already making a case to three-peat as the MVP.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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GG Jackson II with double-digit scoring in 3 of his 6 games off the bench for the Memphis Grizzlies so far.
Him embracing his role and keeping the offensive rating sustainable with his role versatility means everything for his long-term career. https://t.co/BCOEWbQNBa
— Ersin Demir (@EDemirNBA) November 1, 2026
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