Free NBA Pick: Mavericks vs. Celtics Odds
Looking for Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics free NBA picks & NBA odds? NBA betting sees the Mavericks taking on the Celtics on November 15 at TD Garden in Boston, MA. This free NBA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Mavericks Celtics matchup.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
Mavericks +13.5 |Celtics -13.5Here’s why I’m backing Dallas ATS in my Mavericks Celtics free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Mavericks vs. Celtics Gameday
Dallas travels to Boston on November 15 for an NBA matchup at TD Garden. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00 ET, with both teams seeking to capture a win to bolster their record.
The Mavericks have played well against the lower-tier clubs but have lost the last two matches facing stiffer competition.
Meanwhile, Boston brings a five-game winning streak into this contest.
Per John Schuhmann: The Celtics have been switching up their starting lineup. Neemias Queta has replaced Mitchell Robinson as the starting center (though they’ve also played a few minutes together), while Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo González and Mike Conley have all taken turns in the starting backcourt. Payton Pritchard remains a reserve, while Sam Hauser only started the game (Wednesday vs. Milwaukee) that Jayson Tatum missed. But Pritchard has played the fourth-most minutes on the team, and the Celtics have been at their best (plus-21.2 per 100 possessions) with Hauser on the floor.
Injuries are starting to add up for Dallas, and five players are listed as day-to-day entering this match. They include Tarik Biberovic (heel), Max Christie (ankle), Sergio de Larrea (knee), Daniel Gafford (stinger), and Dereck Lively II (foot).
Conversely, the Celtics are fully healthy.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Odds & Previous Games
In history, the teams have played 90 times, with the Celtics owning the 49-41 edge. Last year, the Celtics took both meetings between the clubs.
Dallas is completing a back-to-back set, having lost 117-127 to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday.
Boston has the major rest advantage, having last played on Wednesday in their own back-to-back where they walloped the Sixers and outlasted the Raptors.
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Mavericks Stats
Dallas ranked 27th offensively (110.2), tied for 13th defensively (113.5), and was tied for 23rd in net rating (-3.3), while running a pace of 102.47, which ranked fourth overall.
The West’s 12th-place Mavericks averaged 25.1 assists (22nd) and 44.7 rebounds (tied for 11th). Dallas scored 113.9 points per game while their opponents averaged 117.4 points.
Per ESPN: Top newcomer: G Zaccharie Risacher The Mavericks took a flier on Risacher when they acquired him in the three-way trade that sent Luguentz Dort to Atlanta, hoping they could develop the former No. 1 pick into a quality role player. The 6-9 Risacher has impressed with his defensive activity as a reserve, averaging 1.3 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Coach Dusty May is comfortable giving Risacher the assignment of guarding elite scorers across multiple positions. His defense on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Durant helped the Mavs pull off wins over the Thunder and Rockets. — MacMahon
Dallas’ team leaders* were Cooper Flagg for scoring (20.4) and steals (1.2), P.J. Washington for rebounds (7.0), while Ryan Nembhard led for assists (4.9) and Daniel Gafford for blocks (1.3).
Perimeter shooting was a weakness for the Mavericks, with five players averaging over 36.8% from deep while the team averaged 34.2%.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
Celtics Stats
Boston ranked second offensively (120.1), fourth defensively (111.8), and fourth in net rating (+8.3) while running a pace of 95.46, which ranked 30th in the association.
The East’s second-place Celtics averaged 24.7 assists (27th) and 46.4 rebounds (third). Boston scored 114.9 points per game while its opponents averaged 107.1 points.
Team leaders* in the key categories were Jaylen Brown for scoring (28.7 points), Neemias Queta for rebounds (8.4), while Derrick White was tops in assists (5.4), blocks (1.3), and steals (1.1).
Seven Celtics shot above league average from the perimeter while the team averaged 36.7% from deep.
Mavericks vs. Celtics Key Matchup
Flagg is playing like a grizzled vet instead of a 19-year-old. He’s leading his club, averaging 24.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists.
Kyrie Irving is ramping up his play slowly, given that he’s returning from a serious injury, but is still outputting 22.7 points and 4.4 assists per game.
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Jayson Tatum is the primary scoring option and frequently the top playmaker on the squad.
He is averaging 26.3 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.1 rebounds and is carrying much of the ball-handling role.
Paul George has been the perfect Robin to Tatum’s Batman, scoring 22.0 points with 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists, and is performing much better from deep (44.0%) than Tatum.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns bottom line: Despite losing Jaylen Brown in the offseason, the Celtics haven’t changed their identity and continue to perform as one of the East’s top clubs. Dallas has struggled against some of the upper echelon teams and will be hard-pressed to slow both Tatum and George.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Basketball Betting Trends
- Over is 6-0 in the Mavericks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Under is 6-1 in the Celtics last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
Mavericks Celtics Free Pick: Mavericks +13.5
Here is my Mavericks Celtics free pick: I’m playing Dallas ATS and taking the points.
I like Boston to win this contest, but not by the huge spread of 13.5 points. Kyrie Irving will make his return to the team he once played for and left unceremoniously (assuming he suits up in a back-to-back). Historically, it’s matches like this where Irving gets fired up to perform.
Per John Schuhmann: The Mavs had some modest success with P.J. Washington as the lone big in their loss to the Spurs on Wednesday, when Victor Wembanyama scored 52 points. But for the season, they’ve been outscored by 29 points (allowing 137 per 100) in 57 total minutes with Washington as the only big on the floor. The good news in that regard is that Santi Aldama made his season debut on Friday and totaled 20 points and 11 rebounds in less than 28 minutes against Utah and Brooklyn.
Dallas will need to be more aggressive because they failed to do that in the front side of the back-to-back while facing the Cavs, who sat much of their core.
I do think they’ll be able to find that competitive edge, however, and for that reason, I’ll take Dallas and the points, but the Celtics for the win.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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Take ownership of the moment.
Celtics: Way of Life | Ep. 2 | Triangles https://t.co/GUkLB2WOKJ
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) November 10, 2026
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