Virginia Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2026 Virginia Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2026 Virginia Derby is set for March 14 at Colonial Downs in New Kent, VA Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Virgina Derby Preview
- Race: Virginia Derby
- Purse: $500,000
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Track: Colonial Downs
- Date: March 14, 2026
- Post Time: 5:10 pm (ET)
- Live: Virginia Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2026 Virginia Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2026 Virginia Derby Handicapping
In only it’s second year, the Virginia Derby on dirt last year replaced the Virginia Derby turf race, and was subsequently added to the Kentucky Derby qualifying series. The Virginia Derby offers qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale.
Last year’s winner, American Promise, went on to finish 16th in the Kentucky Derby and eighth in the Preakness Stakes.
For 2026, the Virginia Derby is expected to draw a field of 10 starters to race 1 1/8 miles on the Colonial Downs dirt course. Most of the runners have yet to make any impression on the qualifying races, and the race could offer some good value in horses that have been under the radar so far this spring.
Odds listed here are provided by the Colonial Downs track oddsmaker.
2026 Virginia Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Buetane Race Odds: 5-2
Since winning on debut last summer, the California-based Buetane has made three consecutive starts in graded-stakes and has two seconds and third to show for those efforts.
His most recent start was in the (G3) Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where he pressed the pacesetter out of the gate but was no match for the winner who closed from further back, eventually settling for third place. That race was at 1 1/16 miles, now he tries to stretch out.
2026 Virginia Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: High Camp Test Odds: 9-2
High Camp made his racing debut very late in his two-year-old season when running second in a maiden sprint at Gulfstream Park in late December.
He went from that six-furlong sprint to a seven-furlong sprint next out to score his maiden win in a race where he was hung wide and had to overcome traffic to close into a fairly slow pace and get the win by a length.
Lockstocknpharoah Race Odds: 5-1
The cleverly named Lockstocknpharoah (his sire is American Pharoah, while his dam is named Lockstep) has won both his lifetime starts, both on the all weather surface at Turfway Park.
The first of those was a six-furlong sprint where he came from off the pace to win by two lengths. He then stretched out to a mile and took the field gate-to-wire to win by more than eight lengths. Now he tried to transfer his form to the dirt.
Incredibolt Race Odds: 10-1
The future looked bright for Incredibolt through his two-year-old season, after he broke his maiden second time out and then stepped right up to win the (G3) Street Sense Stakes going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs in late October.
He disappointed in his first start of this year in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream where he never made an impression and ultimately finished last in a field of six. He’s been putting in very good works leading into this as he looks to rebound.
Here’s My 2026 Virginia Derby Stakes Free Pick
With 50 points to first place, it’s basically guaranteed the winner of this race will have a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate, and there’s been some grumbling in the racing world that an ungraded race shouldn’t carry the same qualifying weight as higher level Grade 3 and Grade 2 races.
That being said, I’m going to look at it as a chance to look past the favourite and try to find some value among a group of horses that won’t likely be considered strong contenders on the first Saturday of May.
I don’t know what happened to Incredibolt in the Holy Bull, and it could just turn out that he’s one of those horses that never carries his two-year-old form forward. But at a juicy 10-1 and off a series of strong workouts, I’m willing to give him another chance and pick him for the upset win.
If he had a race beyond seven furlongs to his name, I might be inclined to put High Camp in the top spot. But with the question of distance hanging over him, I’ll instead use him in the exacta.
Full Field: 2026 Virginia Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Buetane 5-2
- #2 – Grittiness 12-1
- #3 – Epic Desire 15-1
- #4 – Work 20-1
- #5 – High Camp 9-2
- #6 – Lockstocknpharoah 5-1
- #7 – Incredibolt 10-1
- #8 – Confessional 4-1
- #9 – Ocelli 15-1
- #10 – Clocker Special 8-1
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