Tampa Bay Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2025 Tampa Bay Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2025 (G3) Tampa Bay Derby is set for March 8 at Tampa Bay Downs in Tampa Bay, FL. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Tampa Bay Derby Preview
- Race: Tampa Bay Derby
- Purse: $400,000
- Distance: 1 1/16 miles
- Track: Tampa Bay Downs
- Date: March 8, 2025
- Post Time: 5:34 PM (ET)
- Live: Tampa Bay Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2025 Tampa Bay Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2025 Tampa Bay Derby Handicapping
After last weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, 2025 Kentucky Derby qualifying stays in the Sunshine State this weekend with the running of the (G3) Tampa Bay Derby. The TB Derby will award Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale.
Although you have to go all the way back to 2007 to find a Tampa Bay Derby winner in Street Sense that went on to win the Run for the Roses, this year’s race does have an intriguing crop of three-year-old colts that have shown flashes of brilliance in their early careers and could step up to contend on the first Saturday in May.
They’ll be racing 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa Bay dirt course.
Odds listed here are provided by the Tampa Bay track oddsmaker.
2025 Tampa Bay Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Chancer McPatrick Race Odds: 8-5
The late-running Chancer McPatrick came flying from way out of it to win his first three lifetime starts last year, including the (G1) Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, and the (G1) Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct.
He took on the best-of-the-best next out in the (G1) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile while racing beyond one mile for the first time, but couldn’t make up much ground late and ran sixth. This will be his first start since that effort in early November.
2025 Tampa Bay Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Patch Adams Race Odds: 2-1
Second time out Patch Adams broke his maiden with a whopping 10 1/2 length win at Churchill Downs, while recording an eye-catching 113 Equibase speed figure. That number is 15 points better than any other horse in this field.
He started the 2025 year as the heavy favourite in the (G3) Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, running fourth behind a trio that finished 10th, 3rd and 5th two weeks ago in the (G2) Rebel Stakes.
Hill Road Race Odds: 4-1
Hill Road started his career racing on turf in the UK, and won his first start by an easy five lengths. He then stepped right up to Group 1 company, but the water’s proved to be just a bit too deep and the second-place finisher went on to win the BC Juvenile Turf.
For his part, he switched to dirt, and made a strong late advance to wind up third in the BC Juvenile. three spots ahead of Chancer McPatrick. This will also be his first start since that race.
Owen Almighty Race Odds: 5-1
In all five of his lifetime starts, Owen Almighty has crossed the finish line first or second, although two back he was disqualified from first to fifth for causing interference on the turn in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
Last out in the Sam F Davis Stakes at this track and distance he tracked right up on the pace throughout but never could quite get to the winner and finished second by a half length.
Here’s My 2025 Tampa Bay Derby Stakes Free Pick.
There is very little speed signed on in this race, and in fact two of the top four contenders listed here are deep closers, while Patch Adams seems best sitting off the pace.
That being said, I think jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has Owen Almighty gunning for the lead right out of the gate and I have a feeling he’s going to steal it. He may face some pace pressure from longshot Brodeur, but that one’s two lifetime wins have come on off tracks and I don’t think he’s a match, talent wise. Owen Almighty is the pick to win.
I’m not crazy about the layoff but I think Hill Road might have the most talent of the bunch and since the connections think enough of him to keep him on the dirt and try for the Derby, I’ll use him in the exacta.
Full Field: 2025 Tampa Bay Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Owen Almighty 5-1
- #2 – Chancer McPatrick 8-5
- #3 – Hill Road 4-1
- #4 – Brodeur 15-1
- #5 – Filoso 15-1
- #6 – Naughty Rascal 20-1
- #7 – Patch Adams 2-1
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