Kentucky Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2025 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2025 (G1) Kentucky Derby is set for May 3 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Derby Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $5 million
- Distance: 1 1/4 miles
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 3, 2025
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2025 Kentucky Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2025 Kentucky Derby Handicapping
The long road of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby that started last September comes to an end on Saturday with the running of the 151st (G1) Kentucky Derby.
After a pair of late scratched the race is expected to have a field of 19, and they’ll race 1 1/4 miles on the Churchill dirt track, a distance none of the field has tackled before this.
As is typical in the Derby, there’s lots of excellent betting value to be had. There’s no dominant favourite, and 16 of the 19 runners are in double-digit odds in the morning line.
Odds listed here are provided by the Churchill Downs track oddsmaker.
2025 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Journalism Race Odds: 3-1
Record: 5 starts, 4 wins, 1 third. Last out: Won the (G1) Santa Anita Derby by 3/4 length.
Why he can win: He has a high cruising speed and a stalking style that’s perfect for the Derby. Has the athleticism to get out of trouble in the large Derby field.
Why he can’t win: Has been beating very small fields in the California prep races. Has never raced outside of southern California.
2025 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Sovereignty Odds: 5-1
Record: 5 starts, 2 firsts, 2 seconds. Last out: Finished 2nd in the (G1) Florida Derby by 1 1/4 lengths.
Why he can win: He has a strong finishing kick to run down what could be a very fast early pace. Added distance is to his benefit.
Why he can’t win: Will have to work out a trip from an outside gate and could have a lot of traffic to get through as they turn for home.
Burnham Square Race Odds: 12-1
Race record:6 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third. Last out: Won the (G1) Blue Grass Stakes by a nose.
Why he can win: He’s had good results in arguably the toughest of the Derby preps and seems to be steadily improving. Grinding-style runner never gives up.
Why he can’t win: Might not have enough early speed to get a good position from the gate and could be left with a lot of work to do late.
Baeza Race Odds: 12-1
Race record: 4 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds. Last out: Finished 2nd by 3/4 length in the (G1) Santa Anita Derby.
Why he can win: His speed figures have steadily improved with every start and could move up again. Gave Journalism a scare in the SA Derby.
Why he can’t win: He actually led the SA Derby in the stretch but couldn’t hold off Journalism late. He’s light on experience to tackle this big field, and only has a single maiden win to his name.
Luxor Cafe Race Odds: 15-1
Race record: 6 starts, 4 wins, 1 second. Last out: Won the Fukuryu Stakes by 5 lengths.
Why he can win: He’s Japan-based but American bred by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Distance shouldn’t be a problem, and if the track comes up wet, he’s won three times on off tracks.
Why he can’t win: There’s a big question as to the level of competition he’s been facing, and the finishing times of his races aren’t all that fast.
American Promise Race Odds: 30-1
Race record: 9 starts, 2 seconds, 1 third. Last out: Won the Virginia Derby by 7 3/4 lengths.
Why he can win: Pressed a wicked fast pace going 1 1/8 miles in the VA Derby and still had lots left at the end. He’s been putting in strong works and should handle the distance and an off track.
Why he can’t win: He wasn’t all that competitive against several of these in the early spring preps, and needed the VA Derby win against a weak field just to qualify for this.
Here’s My 2025 Kentucky Derby Free Pick.
Although the late scratch of Rodriguez removes some of the early speed from this race, I expect they’re going to be going pretty fast early, and having good position as they swing into the backstretch is going to be key.
That should play into the hands of Journalism and if he makes the far turn sitting anything like two or three lengths off the lead, his late kick and back-class could carry him to the win. If he were to drift up anywhere from his morning line odds, I’d be very tempted to bet him on top.
That’s the logical way to look at it. But that being said, I don’t think he’s head-and-shoulders above this field, and let’s face it, betting the favourite in the Derby isn’t much fun. Although he’s the second choice in the ML, the live odds indicate Sovereignty is drifting up and should offer a good price at post time.
There’s no question that he’ll need to be a bit faster early than he’s shown in the past, and I have to hope that he’s no worse than mid-pack as they go down the backside. But I think – along with Journalism – he has the strongest finishing kick in the field, and in previous races he seems to be crying out for the added distance he’ll get here. I’ll pick him on top.
I’m also big on Burnham Square, who looked to be done-and-dusted going into the far turn in the Blue Grass but managed to rally up for the win. It’s also worth noting that three back he beat Tappen Street, who went on to win the (G1) Florida Derby over Sovereignty and would likely be the first or second favourite in this field if not for an injury that knocked him out of the race.
So I’ll be using the top three listed here in my exacta box.
- Sovereignty
- Journalism
- Burnham Square
- Baeza
Full Field: 2025 Kentucky Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Citizen Bull 20-1
- #2 – Neoequos 30-1
- #3 – Final Gambit 30-1
- #4 – Rodriguez (scratched)
- #5 – American Promise 30-1
- #6 – Admire Daytona 30-1
- #7 – Luxor Cafe 30-1
- #8 – Journalism 3-1
- #9 – Burnham Square 12-1
- #10 – Grande (scratched)
- #11 – Flying Mohawk 30-1
- #12 – East Avenue 20-1
- #13 – Publisher 30-1
- #14 – Tiztastic 20-1
- #15 – Render Judgement 30-1
- #16 – Coal Battle 30-1
- #17 – Sandman 6-1
- #18 – Sovereignty 5-1
- #19 – Chunk Of Gold 30-1
- #20 – Owen Almighty 30-1
- #21 – Baeza 12-1
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