Arkansas Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2025 Arkansas Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2025 (G1) Arkansas Derby is set for March 29 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, AR. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Arkansas Derby Preview
- Race: Arkansas Derby
- Purse: $1.5 million
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Track: Oaklawn Park
- Date: March 27, 2025
- Post Time: 7:48 PM (ET)
- Live: Arkansas Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2025 Arkansas Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2025 Arkansas Derby Handicapping
It may seem hard to believe, but we are already into the home stretch of qualifying races for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with the last five of the major points races all set to be run this weekend and next weekend. Ultimately the top 20 horses in the Derby leaderboard will make the Run for the Roses.
On tap for Saturday is the (G1) Arkansas Derby, which will offer Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale. Three of the nine horses set to go to the Oaklawn Park sit in the top 20 on the Derby leaderboard, although only one of those – Coal Battle (70 pts.) – has a Derby spot locked up. Four other entries have Derby points but sit outside the top 20.
They’ll be racing 1 1/8 miles on the Oaklawn dirt track.
Odds listed here are provided by the Oaklawn track oddsmaker.
2025 Arkansas Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Cornucopian Race Odds: 7-5
Cornucopian has exactly one race and one win under his saddle after breaking his maiden at first asking one month ago on the Oaklawn dirt in a six-furlong sprint.
It was an impressive performance as he broke sharply from the gate, duelled with a rival early and clicked off fast fractions, going on to win by 5 3/4 lengths. In doing so he rated a 100 Brisnet speed figure, the only horse in this field to hit triple-digits in a race so far.
2025 Arkansas Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Coal Battle Odds: 7-2
Since switching from turf to dirt racing, Coal Battle has won four consecutive stakes races, the most recent of those in the (G2) Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park over a distance of 1 1/16 miles.
Breaking from the rail in the Rebel he got a patient ride sitting behind the leaders down the backstretch and then made a powerful move on the turn. From there he ran down the pacesetter and went on to win by 1 1/4 lengths, earning a career best 98 speed rating.
Sandman Race Odds: 3-1
A fast-closing third in the Rebel, Sandman was near the back of strung-out pack early in that race and left himself with too much to do as they turned for home.
The stretch out here, combined with the fact he should get plenty of speed to close into, means he could be able to get a piece of it. The concern is that for a horse that runs like a closer, his two wins have come at 7 furlongs and one mile distances and his lack of early speed may just have him too far back again.
First Division Race Odds: 20-1
The lightly raced First Division is making just his fourth career start and first try at the stakes level. All three of his previous races have been at Oaklawn Park and he sports a record of 1 win, 1 second and 1 third for his efforts.
He was slow out of the gate last time in a race where there was very little speed. But he showed a very quick turn of foot down the stretch and only missed the win by a neck to a rival he’ll meet here again. He needs to take a step forward in tough company but does have some upside potential.
Here’s My 2025 Arkansas Derby Stakes Free Pick.
There’s an adage in handicapping that you always need to be wary of a horse trying something for the first time. In the heavy favourite Cornucopian, we have a horse taking on winners for the first time, stretching out beyond six furlongs for the first time, and going around two turns for the first time.
Not to take anything away from his impressive maiden win, but the list above contains too many firsts for me, and at very low odds I’m going to try and beat him.
Coal Battle has done nothing wrong since the connections moved him to dirt racing. I expect there to be a very fast early pace in this race, with at least three of these – Cornucopian, Speed King and likely Bestfriend Rocket – all going to the front. I think Coal Battle can sit back much like he did in the Rebel and make the same strong move into the lane.
I’ll take Coal Battle for the win, and throw First Division in for the exacta bomb.
Full Field: 2025 Arkansas Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Bereton’s Baytown 30-1
- #2 – First Division 20-1
- #3 – Publisher 6-1
- #4 – Bestfreind Rocket 20-1
- #5 – Speed King 15-1
- #6 – Sandman 3-1
- #7 – Monet’s Magic 20-1
- #8 – Coal Battle 7-2
- #9 – Cornucopian 7-5
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