Free NCAA Football Prediction: Tulane vs. USC Odds
Looking for Tulane Green Wave vs. USC Trojans free picks? College football betting sees the Green Wave taking on the Trojans on Monday, January 2nd, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Green Wave Trojans free pick.
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College Football Handicapping Analysis: Tulane Green Wave vs. USC Trojans
2022 Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Tulane Green Wave (11-2) vs. USC Trojans (11-2)
Date: Monday, January 2nd, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Green Wave +2 / Trojans -2 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Green Wave +108 / Trojans -131
NCAA Betting Total Odds: Total O/U 62.5
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USC’s loss to Utah ultimately ruined their CFP dreams. Can Caleb Williams cap his best season off with a bowl win?
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane punctuated their season with a 45-22 win over UCF in the AAC title game. The Green Wave rushed for 254 yards on 8.2 ypc!
Don’t forget about the passing attack though, it put up 394 yards of offense and 4 scores. UCF was fully dominated but struggled down the stretch. Offensive PPA says Tulane was a top-20 squad and they finished 25th in yards/play, so we should fully expect explosive plays once again.
Tulane was a run-heavy offense for the most part, rushing about 55% of the time. USC finished 126th in defensive rushing success rate and were bottom-30 in defending rush explosiveness, something to keep in mind here.
The Green Wave don’t find themselves in passing downs often (24th) and are highly successful in converting first downs when they are (30th) so we should expect them to get into scoring range often.
Defensively, they’ve been excellent in limiting explosiveness (11th), especially against the pass. That is a crucial angle against USC. They’ve struggled to get teams into passing downs though which the Trojans will welcome.
USC Trojans
Let’s start with some big news on the USC side: Jordan Addison will not play this game. Caleb Williams can still get this offense to run, but will miss Addison’s presence. He tore up UCLA when they met earlier this Fall.
USC is the #1 team in the country in offensive PPA and 5th in offensive success rate. They almost never find themselves in passing downs but are elite at picking up the first down when they do (13th).
The offense has never been a problem this season, and when USC has won games it’s because their offense can mask the issues the defense has. Namely, they can’t keep other teams off the board.
The Trojans are 127th in defensive success rate, behind Charlotte. They especially struggle against the run where they sit 123rd in defensive rush PPA. Tulane should be able to run wild in this contest.
The Trojans are 105th in opponent third down conversion rate, so we should see plenty of points in this contest.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
- Tulane is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California’s last 5 games
- Southern California is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
4* Goodyear Cotton Bowl NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
We also have the question of motivation here. USC missed out on the grand prize at the finish line of the regular season. How much does a consolation bowl mean to them?
Tulane is on an absolute heater and profile well here.
The move here is to take the over. It’s explosive offense vs. explosive offense and USC has zero defense to boot. Caleb Williams still needs to put film out there that supplements his draft stock, so even without Addison, he could throw 45 times in this game.
Buckle up, buckaroos.
4* Tulane Green Wave vs. USC Trojans NCAA Betting Pick: o62.5
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