Free NCAA Football Prediction: Penn State vs. Minnesota Odds
Looking for Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers free picks? College football betting sees the Nittany Lions taking on the Golden Gophers on Saturday, October 22nd, 2022, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Nittany Lions Golden Gophers free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-2)
Date: Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Time: 7:30 pm EST
Venue: Beaver Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Nittany Lions -4 / Golden Gophers +4 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Penn State -200 / Minnesota +170
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 44.5
Penn State looks to rebound after being smacked in Ann Arbor. Minnesota took one on the chin themselves, with a Big Ten West loss to Illinois.
I took to this site last week to claim the under in Michigan and Penn State. Truthfully, it was the right call. Penn State got an uncharacteristic Sean Clifford QB keeper for 60 yards that set up for a touchdown and then on the ensuing drive picked off McCarthy for a pick 6. That was 14 points that came out of nowhere.
Penn State lost handily, 41-17 and looked generally lost on offense. Now they take on a Minnesota squad that has been incredibly stingy all year long.
Minnesota has lost their last two games after a perfect 4-0 start against a very weak schedule. In their conference schedule they’ve allowed just under 18 points per game, but Kirk Ciarrocca and the offense have sputtered the last few weeks, only posting 24 total points. They’ve now fallen behind Illinois in the Big Ten West by a considerable margin and don’t have the head to head tiebreaker. They’ll need to turn it around fast this week.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday was tough sledding for the Nittany Lions. They were outgained 563-268, held the ball for 23 less minutes than Michigan and were dominated in the trenches, giving up 418 rushing yards. Michigan is one of the top rushing teams in the country, but teams now see the chink in Penn State’s armor.
Most of the points they generated were on explosive plays, something that’s not highly repeatable for them. In reality, they’re fortunate to have scored a touchdown on the day, let alone two. The offense hasn’t done well staying on schedule (89th) and it’s worth asking when does Penn State start Drew Allar over Clifford?
They were forced to abandon the run with the early deficit they faced, but they’ve not done well in the rushing attack (116th). Keep in mind, Minnesota has been a dominating force in run defense (25th) so this game will come down to whether the Nittany Lions can do enough through the air.
Penn State’s defensive line has actually rated out decently well this season in both line yards and stuff rate but the success rate leaves a little to be desired. That will be vitally important against a Minnesota team that runs 62% of the time.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
PJ Fleck has the Gophers rowing the boat once again after a very down year last year. Part of their revitalization has been bringing OC Kirk Ciarrocca back after parting ways.
Tanner Morgan gets asked to do just enough in this offense. Mohamed Ibrahim is the bellcow back that they rely on and were without last year after he suffered a torn achilles in their opening game against Ohio State. Ibrahim has 694 yards through six games and has rushed for over 100 yards in 14 straight. Penn State is only the nation’s 86th most successful defense against the run, a tasty matchup.
The offensive line dominates the trenches. They are #1 in line yards and of course stay on schedule when rushing, to the tune of 4th best.
Because they run so much, the pass is usually a surprise. While they’re not explosive, they’re picking up enough yardage for the run to be manageable. Slow and methodical is the name of the game for Minnesota’s offense, they’re dead last in the country in seconds/play.
Can Minnesota stop what Penn State wants to do offensively? Well, we’ve already covered that Minnesota’s run defense is good enough that they should really only need to stop the pass. They’re top-20 in defensive passing success rate and the secondary is top-40 in havoc.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
- Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Penn State’s last 7 games at home
- Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
4* Free Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Minnesota has a great matchup for what they like to do. Watching Michigan rush for 418 yards has to instill quite a bit of confidence.
As it currently sits, I like Minnesota to grind out a win and possess the ball for 40 minutes, similar to what Michigan did.
The caveat here is that if Penn State decides to start Allar, the context changes entirely. They would become a much more successful offense and most likely favor the pass. Franklin committed to Clifford verbally when pressed this week, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a last minute switch.
I’m only taking the Minnesota ML if Clifford starts. If Allar ends up starting, the line will certainly change and most likely the side with it. Wait to put this in until near gametime.
4* Free Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAA Betting Pick: Minnesota +170
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Free Score Prediction: Nittany Lions 14 – Golden Gophers 27 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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