Free NCAA Football Prediction: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Odds
Looking for Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders free picks? College football betting sees the Cowboys taking on the Red Raiders on Saturday, October 8th, 2022, at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Cowboys Red Raiders free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2)
Date: Saturday, October 8th, 2022
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Cowboys -9 / Red Raiders +9 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Oklahoma State -330 / Texas Tech +250
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 69.5
Oklahoma State entered the season as the favorite to take the Big 12 and have fired out of the gate strong, starting 4-0. Texas Tech has started faster than most expected and will now play their 5th (!) game in a row versus a ranked opponent.
A ton of credit is due to Mike Gundy, not just for the job he’s done this year but the way he’s survived program losses throughout the last few years. The Pokes have put top talent in the NFL, lost their DC from the nation’s top defense and watched as conference opponents have hired high profile coaches. But yet, the Pokes sit near the top of the conference at 4-0, just behind Kansas who has played one more game.
On the other sideline, another great coaching performance is under way. No one expected Joey McGuire to get off to such a hot start, securing two, top-25 victories in their first four games. Texas Tech’s schedule is a true meat grinder, with 3 more games against ranked teams ahead of them, including this matchup with the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Spencer Sanders has been electric for the Pokes to start the year and deserves a lot of credit for their 4-0 start. The schedule hasn’t been incredibly difficult, but a road win at #16 Baylor last week was a good step in proving their legitimacy.
The true senior has accounted for 15 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions while averaging 275 passing yards per game. The passing offense rates out top-15 in success rate and the offense as a whole has put up nearly 48 points per game.
The Cowboys struggle to run the ball though and find themselves in a bad matchup against Texas Tech’s top-20 rushing defense. RB Dominic Richardson slogged to a 3.0 ypc mark against Baylor and was actually outpaced in rushing yards by Sanders.
Tempo is the name of the game for the Pokes. They rank 10th in the country in seconds per play and could explain why their run game struggles; gassed linemen don’t do as well in the trenches. This will be the fastest offense Texas Tech has seen all year.
This season has been a bit of a step back defensively, but is unsurprising considering key personnel losses on the roster and within the coaching ranks. The Cowboys still control the trenches well, they’re top-20 in line yards and stuff rate, but the defense as a whole has struggled with allowing explosiveness. The Red Raiders have posted a top-30 mark in offensive explosiveness.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech calls for the pass on 60% of offensive plays and they too like to run tempo (7th). QB Donovan Smith has been up to the challenge, averaging nearly 300 yards per game passing and adding 11 touchdowns. The one negative about Smith is that he’s turnover prone. At his current pace, he’ll throw for 17 interceptions this year.
Myles Price has 15 more receptions than the next closest receiver and is their #1 wide out. The statistics don’t show a sexy success rate, but by running tempo you lean towards the explosive play. Defenses love to say that pressure bursts pipes, but offenses can flip the tables by running tempo and eventually you wear out the opposing defense, that’s when the homeruns hit.
The Red Raiders have struggled with allowing explosive plays (119th) and with the Oklahoma State tempo, that issue could be magnified. They don’t generate much Havoc either (79th) and without a few negative plays, it could be a long day for them against the Pokes.
Let’s say something nice though about the boys from Lubbock: they’re top-25 in defensive passing success rate. So while they’ve struggled in explosiveness, they’ve kept their opponents from picking up key downs and distances. If you remove their game against FCS Murray State, the Red Raiders have allowed 32 points per game to opponents, with wins coming in shootouts.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma State
- Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Oklahoma State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
4* Free Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
The Big 12 has been known for the last few decades as a conference that doesn’t play defense. Even though I’ve always thought that was a little oversimplified, I think this game will be a classic Big 12 final that we all wide-eye in the ticker.
Both teams are top-10 in seconds per play and both struggle with allowing offensive explosiveness. This game lends itself to gassed defenses and plenty of points.
I like taking the over in this game even though it’s quite high. My best advice if you like the over though is to live bet the game.
With this high of a total, your risk that the live total increases is actually pretty low. However, if the game is at a slower than expected start, the total could come crashing down and that’s when you pounce for free value.
4* Free Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAA Betting Pick: o69.5Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Free Score Prediction: Cowboys 42 – Red Raiders 38 (Bet Now!)
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