Ray “The Razor” Monohan – Last Updated on April 13, 2023 10:15 am
Free NCAA Football Prediction: Ohio State vs. Indiana Odds
Looking for Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers free picks? College football betting sees the Buckeyes taking on the Hoosiers on Saturday, November 12, 2022, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Buckeyes Hoosiers free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (3-6)
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Indiana
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: OSU -40 (-110) / IU +40 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: OSU N/A / IU N/A
NCAA Betting Total Odds: 58.0
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Ohio State continues to hold onto the #2 spot in the latest College Football Playoff poll, but must play better than last week in poor weather in Evanston. Tom Allen’s team has taken a step back, but still remain competitive week to week.
The Buckeyes figured to get this far in the season without a loss and only Michigan remaining is a real test. Maryland is a tricky game, if for only the fact that their offense is quite dynamic, but the Buckeyes should cruise in this one. Weather was a big impediment last week, but Stroud generally looked pretty sloppy. He must improve his play to hold onto his Heisman odds and stave off Hendon Hooker.
Indiana started 3-0 but have since lost 6 in a row. Though they’ve had some tough conference opponents, they’ve also dropped contests to Nebraska and Rutgers which is a bad sign. A program like Indiana won’t be on top year after year so Tom Allen gets quite a line of rope. Ohio State has been a second half team all year, but this one could be over by half.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes have had confounding first half troubles. The offense struggles to string together drives, which in technical terms we would say their success rate is poor in the 1H. Outside observers who didn’t watch their game against Northwestern are sounding alarm bells more heavily than those of us who did, if for nothing more than the weather was heavily influential.
While the Bucks don’t pass the eye test, the advanced data still says they’re 7th in success rate and they show some explosiveness in their profile (34th). Indiana has actually held their own this season in defending explosiveness (23rd) so it’ll be interesting to see if they struggle once again.
The weather in Columbus will be pretty chilly on Saturday, though the wind is expected to be much tamer which should allow Stroud to improve on his 76 yards passing. Jaxson Smith-Njigba has missed almost every game this season and it remains to be seen if he suits up for this one, but they also may just be trying to keep him mending until the Michigan game.
The Bucks defense has remained dominant this season, ranking 6th in defensive success rate, 3rd in defensive line yards, and ranking top-30 in defensive havoc. Ohio State allows only 1.7 offensive touchdowns per game which is 6th in the country.
Indiana Hoosiers
If you haven’t watched a lot of Indiana football, you’d be on the same page with most of America. The data shows Indiana throws 63% of the time, which is 4th most in the country. Now they have to contend with Ohio State’s pass defense that is 6th in passing success rate.
Indiana’s offense only manages 2.3 offensive touchdowns per game, yet is the fastest team in the country in seconds/play. Part of that has to do with their heavy passing offense as the clock stops on incompletions, but it’s something to consider.
The Hoosiers just lost their leading receiver for the rest of the year due to a torn ACL and even with him they came in at 115th in offensive success rate. It’s really difficult to see them have much success in this contest.
Indiana successfully defends the run, both in success rate and explosiveness and they also do a nice job of stopping pass explosiveness. What they struggle with is knocking teams off schedule through the air, coming at 125th in defensive passing success rate. Ohio State loves to run but the passing game may be their best bet.
The Hoosiers generate almost no havoc on defense so the Bucks won’t feel too pressed.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana’s last 5 games when playing Ohio State
- Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ohio State
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
4* Free Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Ohio State remains a snail in pace by seconds per play (103rd). As home favorites the Bucks are 3-2-1 ATS with an average margin of victory of 35.7, and covering by an average of 5.7 points. That means the 40 points is a skin of your teeth bet.
Ohio State has also been clunky in the first half before settling in and turning on the afterburners in the 2H.
Indiana shows enough defensive rush success rate and limiting explosiveness overall, so I think they can muck it up enough. Offensively they show nothing to get excited about so I think we can safely assume they produce little to no points.
Based on all of these considerations, I love the under play. Getting close to nothing from Indiana means 58 points is going to be extremely hard to hit. Let’s go under!
4* Free Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers NCAA Betting Pick: u58.0
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