Free NCAAF Pick: Trojans vs. Aggies Odds
Looking for Troy Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Trojans taking on the Aggies on 9/26 at Merlin Olsen Field At Maverik Stadium, in Logan, UT. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Trojans Aggies matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Troy Trojans vs Utah State Aggies
(2-1) Troy Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies (0-3)
Date: Sep 26, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Merlin Olsen Field At Maverik Stadium in Logan, UT
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Trojans +132 | Aggies -161 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Trojans +3 | Aggies -3
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 48.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Utah State ATS bet below in my Trojans Aggies free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Trojans vs. Aggies Gameday
Troy closes its nonconference schedule Saturday with a trip to Logan to face Utah State at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Trojans enter 2-1 after beating Sam Houston 24-21 and Alabama State 34-17 before falling 27-17 at No. 20 Missouri. Troy actually led the Tigers 10-0 and stayed within one score until the closing minutes.
The final margin didn’t tell the whole story.
Troy held Missouri to 230 yards and still lost by 10, which is a fairly irritating way to spend a Saturday.
Utah State is 0-3 under Bronco Mendenhall after losses to Idaho State, No. 19 Washington and No. 17 Utah. The Aggies came within two points of Washington before getting blanked 33-0 in Salt Lake City last week.
Saturday is also Utah State’s Homecoming game.
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Troy leads the all-time series 2-1, with the programs meeting for the first time since 2004. The Trojans won the only previous game in Logan 23-14 in 2003.
Troy Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies Odds & Last 5
Utah State remains a short home favorite, although the market has tightened. The Aggies are around -2.5 to -3, with Troy approximately +120 to +130 on the moneyline.
The total has also dropped from the supplied 48.5, with 47.5 showing across the current market.
Troy’s defense was considerably better than the 27 points at Missouri suggest. The Trojans held the Tigers to only 230 total yards, and Missouri’s two offensive touchdowns came on drives beginning at the Troy 18- and 13-yard lines.
Utah State has its own defensive argument.
The Aggies held No. 19 Washington to 356 yards in a 16-14 loss and allowed only 241 yards against Idaho State. Unfortunately, eight interceptions through three games have repeatedly handed opponents opportunities that the defense didn’t particularly request.
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Aggies Stats
Utah State’s 0-3 record starts with an offense still trying to find some consistency. The Aggies are averaging only 190.3 passing yards and 98.3 rushing yards per game.
The quarterback position has been the biggest problem.
McCae Hillstead started the opener and threw for 178 yards and two touchdowns, but he was intercepted three times before suffering a forearm injury. Grady Brosterhous has started the last two and has thrown for 393 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions.
Brosterhous does bring another dimension on the ground.
He rushed for 81 yards against Washington and leads Utah State with 133 rushing yards this season. Javen Jacobs is next with 108, while Eli Wood has emerged as the Aggies’ most consistent receiving option.
The defense has given Utah State opportunities.
The Aggies rank near the top of the Pac-12 in total defense and tackles for loss, and they’ve surrendered only 130 rushing yards per game. Brevin Hamblin leads the defense with 19 tackles.
Trojans Stats
Troy is averaging 364 yards and 25 points per game through its 2-1 start. The Trojans have been balanced enough offensively, averaging 198.7 yards through the air and 165.3 on the ground.
Goose Crowder has supplied the explosive element.
The Troy quarterback has thrown for 596 yards and six touchdowns with only one interception. TK Keyes has caught a touchdown in all three games and has produced 70-plus-yard scoring receptions in each of the last two.
Troy can strike quickly, but asking 70-yard touchdowns to become a weekly business model seems mildly ambitious.
The Trojans have been even better defensively than their record suggests. They’re allowing only 274.7 yards per game and just 92 on the ground.
That defense traveled to Missouri just fine.
Troy limited the Tigers to 230 total yards, the fewest Missouri has produced against a Power Four opponent since 1996. Donnie Smith has recorded a sack in every game, while Justin Powe is coming off a 14-tackle performance.
The Trojans have allowed only 28 points on drives covering 70 yards or longer this season. Making opponents actually travel the field has worked rather well.
Trojans vs. Aggies QB Matchup
Grady Brosterhous has started Utah State’s last two games after Hillstead was injured in the opener. He threw for 196 yards and two touchdowns against Washington before finishing with 130 yards and an interception at Utah.
The turnovers remain impossible to ignore.
Brosterhous has thrown five interceptions in 70 attempts, while Utah State quarterbacks have combined for eight. That’s a dangerous habit against a Troy defense that just made Missouri work for almost every yard it got.
Goose Crowder brings a much cleaner passing profile.
The Troy starter has completed 44 of 83 passes for 596 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He threw for a season-high 230 yards at Missouri despite the Trojans scoring only 17 points.
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Crowder also has a legitimate deep threat in Keyes.
Utah State needs Brosterhous to avoid giving Troy the short fields that have repeatedly hurt the Aggies this season. The good news is that his legs give the offense another way to move the chains when the passing game stalls.
Crowder has been safer with the football.
Brosterhous gets the home field and a defense capable of keeping him in the game.
Troy Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies bottom line: Troy owns the cleaner quarterback numbers and the more explosive passing game, but Utah State’s defense has been considerably better than its 0-3 record looks, leaving the Aggies with a real chance if they can finally stop donating possessions.
Troy Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies Football Betting Trends
- The Trojans have a strong record against the spread in away games, going 21-5 over their last 26 games.
- Plus, Troy has covered the spread in all of their last 3 games as an underdog.
- Utah State has an impressive 8-1 record against the spread in their last 9 home games.
- The Aggies have performed well against the spread in games with totals of 50 or more, going 14-4 in their last 18 games.
- Additionally, Utah State has a 7-3 record against the spread following a loss in their last 10 games.
- The Aggies have a solid straight-up record as favorites, winning 22 out of their last 27 games.
Trojans Aggies Free Pick: Utah State -3
Here is my Trojans Aggies free pick: I’m taking Utah State -3. Backing an 0-3 favorite isn’t normally where I go looking for comfort, but the Aggies have played better defensively than that record suggests.
Utah State held Washington to 356 yards in a 16-14 loss, while Troy managed only 17 points at Missouri last week. The Trojans also benefited from explosive plays rather than consistently sustaining offense.
Utah State is 0-3, so nobody needs to confuse this with a beauty-pageant selection.
The Aggies absolutely have to stop giving the football away. Eight interceptions through three games is how an offense turns decent defensive work into a weekly emergency.
Still, this is Homecoming in Logan, and Utah State has already shown it can make a better opponent grind for everything. In a short-spread game, I’ll back the Aggies to finally turn one of those defensive efforts into a win.
Take Utah State -3.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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Utah State Aggies on X
Home sweet home 🏡
🆚 Troy
🗓️ Sept. 26
⏰ 5:30 PM MT
📺 @CBSSportsNet
🎟️ https://t.co/1XLgUJv1YU pic.twitter.com/otrtdumvNV— USU Football (@USUFootball) September 21, 2026
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