Free NCAA Football Prediction: Aggies vs. Spartans Odds
Looking for New Mexico State Aggies vs. San Jose State Spartans free picks? College football betting sees the New Mexico State Aggies taking on the San Jose State Spartans on Saturday at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, CA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 5 predictions like this Aggies Spartans free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
New Mexico State Aggies (1-4) vs. San Jose State Spartans (2-2)
Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
Time: 10:30 pm EST
Venue: CEFCU Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Aggies +27.5 / Spartans -27.5
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Aggies +1700 / Spartans -3300
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 52.5
Week 5 college football sees the Aggies and Spartans meet at CEFCU Stadium.
The New Mexico State Aggies have not secured a winning campaign since 2017, and it doesn’t look that it will change in 2021. At 1 – 4 and not playing particularly well thus far, Coach Martin already has his hands full. That lone win came against an FCS program the likes of South Carolina State and now the Aggies hit the road until November 6.
Sparty fans were expecting big things this season after a 1-loss campaign a year ago. San Jose State reeled off a perfect regular season in 2020 only to lose their bowl game to Ball State out of the MAC. At 2 – 2, the Spartans were handed a 23 – 3 loss to Western Michigan last weekend, as another MAC team managed to shut them down again.
The Spartans are favored by 27.5 points in this Independent vs. Mountain West Conference matchup.
New Mexico State Aggies
Aggies head coach Doug Martin hasn’t tasted a successful campaign since 2017, and year 9 of his tenure doesn’t look like it will produce a winning season either. To make matters more difficult, the Aggies will be on the road for 3 straight games with two bye weeks in the mix so they will not see their home field again until they meet Utah State on November 6.
While the Sparty defense has produced nothing to support the offense, at least the Aggies defense pitches in a bit. The Aggies have caused 7 turnovers and that has them ranked 6th in the entire nation in takeaways.
Unfortunately, the numbers point to some tough stats against them as they rank 100th or worse in just about every defensive category you can find.
Total Yards… 118th
Points allowed… 115th
They are 102nd against the run and that is the high point of the defensive stats.
Speaking of being sacked too often which I will cover next with Sparty, the Aggies two QBs have spent more time picking daisies than they would like. Between Johnson and Maldonado they have been sacked 12 times with a 6 / 6 TD to INT ratio.
Price and Samuels have the run game in decent shape, however, as the two have combined for 98 carries, 377 yards, and have made 3 trips to the end zone.
If things work out a certain way this weekend, the Aggies could potentially have 7 players already over 100 yards receiving on the season. They already have their top-5 over the century mark with Garcia-Castaneda and Wyatt each over 200+ yards apiece.
San Jose State Spartans
Nick Starkel’s senior season was supposed to be a big one after a 6 – 0 2020 regular season and nearly everyone returning to the offensive side of the ball. However, things are not going quite as smoothly as expected and Starkel has a lingering left shoulder injury that will take some time to deal with. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have time to rest because the rest of the season better be producing wins.
After last season produced such big potential, it seems like Sparty is reverting to that team they were before last year happened. You do remember the 1 – 11 and 2 – 11 season’s in 2017 and 2018 that were absolutely miserable, right? Oh, we don’t forget those things, and as I said, it feels like we might be going backward again.
Western Michigan handed Sparty their ass last weekend and through 4 games Starkel has seen way too much of the ground thus far. He has thrown 5 picks and thrown only 6 TD passes while being sacked 8 times already. Those are not numbers that will impress anyone and more of that garbage will put this team back where they were really fast!
The big problem for Starkel is his lack of mobility, and his offensive line is simply not protecting him at all. Then you look at the offensive stats for this Sparty team and we can again use that word… OFFENSIVE! And not in a good way if you get my drift!
This team ranks 124th in rushing offense and 117th in points scored averaging only 18 points an outing. In fact, if you look at all 4 QBs stats combined, they are barely completing 48% of their passes and have been sacked 10 times.
I have mentioned so many times that we have 130 teams in FBS. San Jose State sits in the 130th spot in defensive turnovers because they have not forced A SINGLE ONE YET!
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC.
- Aggies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Spartans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
- Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Free Week 5 NCAA Football Pick
I almost cannot even fathom what I am about to say and it is not simply because I love to think dog. Sparty is struggling to put anything together and these two teams are actually not that far apart. Some may see Sparty as an easy winner but the Aggies defense might just be able to contain Starkel and keep this game close.
4* Free Week 5 NCAA Betting Pick:
Ready for it? All right, well here it is, baby! THINKDOG!
4* Free Week 5 NCAA Betting Pick: New Mexico State +14.5
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