Free NCAAF Pick: Midshipmen vs. Fighting Irish Odds
Looking for Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free NCAA Week 9 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Midshipmen taking on the Fighting Irish on 10/31 at Gillette Stadium, in Foxborough, MA. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Midshipmen Fighting Irish matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Navy Midshipmen vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Midshipmen Fighting Irish free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Midshipmen vs. Fighting Irish Gameday
The Navy Midshipmen face the No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 31, 2026, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Kickoff is noon ET on ABC, with Navy entering at 2-5 and Notre Dame sitting at 6-1.
Navy is the designated home team for this neutral-site contest. Brian Newberry’s Midshipmen are 1-4 in American Conference play and have struggled to finish games.
Navy has plenty of fight, but Notre Dame isn’t exactly the opponent you request when things get ugly.
The Midshipmen are coming off a 49-39 loss to North Texas. They’ve dropped 4 of their L5, and defensive mistakes continue to erase much of their offensive work.
Notre Dame enters ranked No. 6 in the Coaches Poll, looking to recover from a 28-24 loss at BYU. Marcus Freeman’s Irish had opened the season with 6 consecutive wins.
The Irish have been outstanding defensively, although their latest defeat exposed some offensive inconsistency. They’ll also want a sharper performance before next week’s meeting with Miami.
Saturday marks the 99th meeting in this historic rivalry and the first played in New England. Notre Dame has won 5 straight against Navy, leaving the Midshipmen with a considerable challenge.
It’s Week 9, Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, hopefully we get a great matchup.
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Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds & Previous Games
Notre Dame is favored by 30.5 points with a -10000 moneyline, while Navy is listed at +2675. The total sits at 55.5 points, making the pace of this rivalry game an important consideration.
Navy is 1-4 over its L5, beating Tulsa 34-26 but losing to UTSA 38-34, Air Force 14-9 and UAB 24-20. The Midshipmen have been competitive at times, although close games haven’t gone their way.
Notre Dame is 4-1 in its L5, beating Stanford 58-7, North Carolina 37-26, Purdue 49-10 and Michigan State 27-10. The Irish have generally handled weaker opponents without much trouble.
Notre Dame won the 2025 meeting 49-10 and leads the all-time series 84-13-1. Navy’s most recent win came in 2016, when the Midshipmen pulled off a 28-27 upset.
This year’s matchup takes place on an NFL field rather than either school’s campus.
That changes the setting, but it doesn’t erase the substantial difference in talent and depth.
The Irish are overwhelming favorites, and understandably so. Navy needs a much cleaner performance than it has delivered recently to keep this contest competitive.
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Fighting Irish Stats
Notre Dame has scored 288 points through 7 games, averaging 41.1 PPG. The Irish produce 445.1 total YPG, including 261.7 passing and 183.4 rushing. Nolan James Jr. has rushed for 412 yards and 6 TDs, while Jonaz Walton has contributed 426 yards and 3 TDs. Notre Dame has enough backfield depth to keep its running game productive. Defensively, the Irish have allowed only 94 points, averaging 13.4 PPG.
They surrender just 234.9 total YPG, ranking first nationally, and have been especially tough against the run.
Notre Dame’s defense has been doing the heavy lifting, and Navy’s offensive line is about to earn its paycheck.
The Irish have recorded 15 sacks, 8 interceptions and 8 fumble recoveries. Their ability to create turnovers has repeatedly handed the offense favorable field position.
Notre Dame also enters with a plus-14 turnover margin, among the nation’s best. That’s a major advantage against opponents already struggling to protect possession.
The Irish have enough speed to challenge Navy’s option attack without constantly sending extra defenders.
Maintaining assignments will be more important than chasing highlight-reel tackles.
Midshipmen Stats
Navy has scored 208 points through 7 games, averaging 29.7 PPG. The Midshipmen rank third nationally in rushing offense at 307.1 YPG, making their intentions fairly obvious. Michael Barrow has rushed for 439 yards and 1 TD, providing another dependable option in the backfield.
Navy’s passing attack has produced only 836 yards, so defenses know where the football is headed.
Defensively, the Midshipmen have surrendered 204 points, averaging 29.1 PPG. They’ve struggled particularly against the pass, allowing 255.9 passing YPG.
Navy has also been vulnerable on third down, allowing opponents to convert 44.4% of their opportunities. That makes it difficult to get off the field against stronger offenses.
The Midshipmen have intercepted 4 passes but haven’t recovered a fumble this season. Their minus-6 turnover margin has contributed to several frustrating results.
Navy needs better tackling and stronger execution against an Irish offense that rarely gives away possessions. The Midshipmen cannot afford another afternoon of defensive breakdowns.
The running game remains their biggest strength, but it cannot carry the entire team.
Navy’s defense must contribute if the Midshipmen hope to make this rivalry competitive.
Midshipmen vs. Fighting Irish QB Matchup
CJ Carr leads Notre Dame with 1,639 passing yards, 16 TDs and only 1 interception. He’s completed 129 of 193 attempts, providing the Irish with efficient production through 7 games. Carr has generally protected the football and made smart decisions from the pocket. His accuracy allows Notre Dame to attack defenses without relying entirely on explosive plays.
Jordan Faison leads the receiving corps with 34 catches for 451 yards and 4 TDs. He gives Carr a dependable target when the Irish need to move the chains.
Backup Noah Grubbs has thrown for 164 yards and 1 TD in limited action. Carr remains the established starter and the clear leader of Notre Dame’s passing attack.
Navy counters with Jackson Gutierrez, who has thrown for 692 yards, 7 TDs and 1 interception. Those passing totals don’t tell the full story of his importance to the offense.
Gutierrez has also rushed for 868 yards and 12 TDs on 150 carries. He’s the centerpiece of Navy’s option attack and a threat to break a long run whenever defenders lose their assignments.
Against North Texas, Gutierrez rushed for 228 yards and 3 TDs while adding 133 yards through the air. That performance demonstrated how dangerous he can become when opponents fail to contain him.
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Braxton Woodson has also contributed at QB, throwing for 144 yards in limited appearances. Navy has additional options, although Gutierrez remains its primary offensive weapon.
Carr holds the advantage as a passer, while Gutierrez brings considerably more rushing production.
Their different styles will test each defense in a completely different way.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish bottom line: Carr gives Notre Dame the passing advantage, but containing Gutierrez’s rushing ability remains the key defensive assignment for the Irish.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Football Betting Trends
- Navy is 17-12 against the spread as an underdog in their last 29 games.
- Plus, the Midshipmen have gone over the total in 11 of their last 20 away games.
- Navy is 14-11-1 on the over after a loss in their last 26 games.
- Notre Dame is 26-3 straight up as a favorite in their last 29 games.
- Additionally, the Fighting Irish have hit the over in all 4 of their games this season.
- Notre Dame is 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 home games.
Midshipmen Fighting Irish Free Pick: Under 55.5
Here is my Midshipmen Fighting Irish free pick: I’m taking Under 55.5. Notre Dame is laying 30.5 points, but that doesn’t mean the Irish need to score 50 to handle Navy.
The Midshipmen want to run the football, shorten the game and keep Notre Dame’s offense standing on the sideline. That approach can chew up plenty of clock, even when Navy struggles to finish drives.
I’m betting on Notre Dame controlling this game, not putting on a scoring exhibition.
The Irish have enough defensive talent to force punts and put this away early. Once they establish a comfortable lead, there’s little reason to keep pushing the tempo.
My biggest concern is Navy giving away short fields or Notre Dame scoring on defense. Those are real risks, but I’m not betting on mistakes to manufacture a shootout.
A 38-10 finish gets the job done without much drama. I’ll take the clock, the Irish defense and Under 55.5.
Today’s Week 9 NCAAF Free Pick
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish on X
Game week
Clash for the Rip Miller Trophy
at Navy
📍 Foxborough, Massachusetts
📆 Saturday, Oct. 31
⏰ 12 PM ET
📺 ABC#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack https://t.co/v5DuEFwnmH
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 26, 2026
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