Free NCAA Football Prediction: Navy vs. Memphis Odds
Looking for Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers free picks? College football betting sees the Midshipmen taking on the Tigers on Thursday, October 14, 2021, at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 7 predictions like this Navy Memphis free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
Navy Midshipmen (1-4) vs. Memphis Tigers (3-3)
Date: Thursday, October 14, 2021
Time: 7:30 pm EST
Venue: Liberty Bowl
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Navy +10.5 / Memphis -10.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Midshipmen +350 / Tigers -380
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 55
Week 7 college football sees the Midshipmen and Tigers meet at the Liberty Bowl.
Just when we all that the Naval Academy was going to bring their season together, the boys in blue took it on the chin against SMU last weekend and lost another conference game, 31 – 24. Navy has now lost 2 of their 3 conference games and as we reach the halfway point of 2021 things are not looking good towards the future.
Navy is a double-digit dog this weekend and the schedule ahead is full of difficult games that might find them as the underdog more often than not. Cincinnati is on deck next weekend and we all know the Army V Navy game is likely going to result in a Cadet victory again. East Carolina and Notre Dame are sitting there too, just sayin’!
The Tigers started 2021 in grand fashion with a 3 – 0 record and smiles all around campus. That facility has since been the site of disaster control because the Tigers are 0 – 3 their last 3 games and 0 – 2 in conference play.
So, let’s make them double-digit favorites, right?
All right, let’s break it down and see if there is enough bark in this dog to make a play on Navy, or not?!
The Tigers are favored by 10.5 points in this American Athletic Conference matchup.
Navy and Memphis have met 6 straight seasons now that they are conference opponents in the American Athletic. The Tigers have taken the last 2 meetings, and we are still waiting for someone to score from last year’s game! LoL
Memphis was favored by 13 points a year ago and they didn’t even score 13 points in a 10 – 7 win over the Naval Academy. It was 7 – 7 in the first quarter of the game and we thought there would be more to see from there. Yeah, not so much, as a field goal with less than 5 minutes left to play from Memphis was what decided their 2020 meeting.
Navy let a 21 – 7 mid-second quarter lead evaporate into a 21 – 21 halftime tie and the 31 – 24 Mustangs win tells you how that second half went. The Midshipmen managed only a field goal in the entire second half, but it was 24 – 24 until the midway point of the 4th quarter when SMU took and held on to the lead to win the game.
Tai Lavatia wasn’t a part of the game last season as he didn’t even see a single snap in 2020 due to injury. He has since become the favorite for Coach Niumatalolo and he even threw a TD pass last weekend! Woo hoo! It was his first-ever scoring strike so he is probably talking about it right now at practice… “Hey, man, you see that TD pass I threw last weekend, I know right gimme some!”
Lavatai led the team in rushing as you would expect, but 53 rushing yards really isn’t going to get it done from your leading rusher in any Navy game. Remember now, we are all used to the Naval Academy being a top-10 rushing unit but this weekend they are ranked 21st only averaging 220 ypg on the ground. That number obviously, needs to come up because the Tigers defense is certainly suspect. Moreso against the pass than the run, the Academy can’t just change their game plan too much.
Lavatai did indeed throw 7 passes last weekend, so maybe he can handle a bit more of a load if he and OC Ivin Jasper can work out a game plan for more of the passing attack. Imagine? Oh, wait, that won’t happen because, after 14 seasons with Navy and Coach Niumatalolo, Jasper was fired as a result of the September 11th disaster… no, not that one in 2001, the one that happened on the field in 2021 when Navy ran the ball for 36 f**king rushing yards… And the AD himself came downstairs to the locker room and told Jasper to get out! Wooo! All right then, so that also could be what led to to the QB change and why Lavatai is now the guy under center too.
Navy throwing the ball 10+ in one game? I cannot even remember the last time that happened. Maybe the Staubach days or something, who knows! (Hey, if you have that answer leave a comment and make yourself look wicked smart!)
Okay, I need to stop here because I will get yelled at for making my articles too long!
Freshman QB Seth Henigan was third on the depth chart in the spring for Coach Silverfield. Now, he has taken every snap under center for the Tigers and has done pretty well as a whole. The kid from Denton, Texas has a 14 – 3 TD to INT ratio and, oh, would you lookie there… We have one of the nation’s top passing QBs to talk about who has put up 1938 passing yards shooting over 60% in completions (130 for 215).
Henigan leads the 11th ranked offense in total yards and passing yards and their 36 PPG pits them at 24th in the land. He has been sacked 13 times and has thrown the ball to the wrong team 3 times, but he is not going to rely on his legs for much. Henigan wants to throw the ball and let his RBs do their job and when you put up nearly 2K yards in only 6 games we’re cool with that!
You don’t HAVE TO BE the fleet-a-foot dude to be a success at the college level so let’s not be stupid about it. The issue for Memphis is their defense is atrocious and they rank 128th out of 130 teams guarding the pass. Obviously, that won’t be the biggest issue this weekend with Navy in town, but the 32.7 points allowed that has them ranked 109th is still a concern.
Brandon Thomas is that guy you will expect to see toting the rock all day against the Navy rushing defense that also allows over 32 PPG. This game might just be 32 – 32 going to overtime and then who knows what we will see from there.
With that said, I think we have to go Navy in this spot to cover a double-digit line. Both of these defenses are miserable and this could just be a wide-open game. I like this total a bit more and I think it is 55 for a reason.
How about a realistic Memphis win in the range of 31- 28 that still gets us over the number regardless of what happens from there. Sure, the Navy pass defense might just get it up, but the Academy will have a game plan to keep it close.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Over is 6-1 in Midshipmens’ last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-2 in Midshipmen last 8 Thursday games.
- Over is also 12-5 in Midshipmens’ last 17 games as an underdog.
- Over is 9-4 in Midshipmen’s last 13 games in October.
- Midshipmen are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
Free Week 7 NCAA Football Pick
I think the Naval Academy will cover and keep it close but we should be playing this total to come in over the 55.
4* Free Week 7 NCAA Betting Pick:
You see I expect a tight game with plenty of scoring to happen against two shit defenses! Cash that Over ticket on Thursday night at the Liberty Bowl!
4* Free Week 7 NCAA Betting Pick: Over 55
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