Free NCAA Football Prediction: Michigan State vs. Ohio State Odds
Looking for Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes free picks? College football betting sees the Spartans taking on the Buckeyes on Saturday, October 8th, 2022, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Spartans Buckeyes free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Michigan State Spartans (2-3) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)
Date: Saturday, October 8th, 2022
Time: 4:00 pm EST
Venue: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Spartans +26.5 / Buckeyes -26.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Michigan State +1500 / Ohio State -4500
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 64.0
Michigan State is coming into this conference battle with 3 consecutive losses. Ohio State looks to keep rolling in their undefeated season with their eyes on the College Football Playoff.
At one point last year no one looked like a better hire than Mel Tucker. The Spartans had low expectations following the sudden leave of longtime HC Mark Dantonio but Tucker surprised the college football world but taking the Spartans to an 11-2 season and a Peach Bowl appearance. Rewarded with a new $95 million dollar extension, things have taken a turn for the worse for Michigan State.
In their recent 3 game slide to fall below .500, the Spartans have averaged a mere 16 ppg on offense and have lost their defensive touch. The loss of Kenneth Walker looks huge right now.
Every year in Columbus the expectation is to make the College Football Playoff and they failed to do so last season with their loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes look like a wagon so far, blowing opponents out and starting a perfect 5-0. Two scares remain on Ohio State’s schedule but this week is not one of them.
Michigan State Spartans
Payton Thorne returned from last season’s bowl team, captaining the Spartans to a top-40 success rate. With the loss of Kenneth Walker MSU has transformed into a more pass heavy offense but they don’t show much pass explosiveness (106th). Jayden Reed led MSU in receiving last year but hasn’t been fully healthy this year, explaining his lackluster statline.
Michigan State has done a good job limiting Havoc in the trenches (9th) but have only put up 127 rush yards per game (99th). They’re one of the faster offenses in college ranking 25th in seconds per play and convert 44% of third down chances, which makes it surprising they haven’t performed better.
Where the Spartans really struggle is finishing drives (91st). They’ve only scored a touchdown on 14.6% of drives (122nd) and are 73rd in giveaways per game. There are some metrics here that suggest they could see some positive regression to the mean.
On the other side of the ball Michigan State has struggled with allowing explosiveness (92nd) which is not a good matchup against Ohio State. They’ve not generated a whole lot of Havoc and have had trouble getting off the field on third down. They’ve allowed 33 ppg to opponents and now host Ohio State’s monster squad.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The strangest development out of Columbus this year is the offensive playcalling eschewing their Heisman QB and favoring the run game. Maybe it’s dramatic to say they’ve abandoned CJ Stroud, considering his performance against Toledo a few weeks ago, but Miyan Williams is undoubtedly getting more work than even he probably expected, setting records with a 5 touchdown performance against Rutgers.
SP+ doesn’t mind this transition and actually tabs the Buckeyes with the #1 offense in the nation. TreVeyon Henderson is due back this week after missing some time and we need to keep an eye here for Jaxson Smith-Njigba’s return to the lineup.
The conversion to a rushing offense looks great on paper; the Buckeyes are top-5 in rushing success rate and offensive line yards. Even though they haven’t passed as much, having a bevy of talented wide receivers is never a bad thing and they’ve been pretty good in the explosiveness department (15th).
Ohio State has the nation’s number 1 Red Zone offense, coming away with points on every trip inside the 20, and most of the time they’re scoring 6. They do run quite a slow pace, ranking 96th in seconds per play.
I’m not concerned about OSU being able to score points, but can their defense manage some stops? We’ve laid out MSU’s struggles in getting points on the board and now they face Ohio State’s top-5 mark defensive success rate.
One thing about a Jim Knowles led defense is that they can be susceptible to explosiveness due to the inherent aggressiveness at or near the line of scrimmage. OSU comes in at a mediocre 65th in limiting explosiveness and could hurt in trying to cover a number.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
- Michigan State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
- Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
4* Free Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
I was on Ohio State last week with a big number but they failed to cover by 1 point after gifting Rutgers a free 7 points with a muffed punt. They effectively shut down the Scarlet Knights the rest of the game though.
Michigan State is on quite a skid and lost their only game as a home underdog to Minnesota, failing to cover by 24 points.
Ohio State runs a very slow pace though and Michigan State has struggled to get points in the red zone, so I think the under is the right play here. If you’d rather bet a side I would probably wait and live bet this.
4* Free Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes NCAA Betting Pick: u64.0
Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Free Score Prediction: Spartans 14 – Buckeyes 38(Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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