Free NCAA Football Prediction: Kansas State vs. Kansas Odds
Looking for Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs free picks? College football betting sees the Wildcats taking on the Jayhawks on Saturday, December 3rd, 2022, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Wildcats Jayhawks free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)
Date: Saturday, December 3rd, 2022
Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Kansas State +2.5 (-110) / TCU -2.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Kansas State +114 / TCU -140
NCAA Betting Total Odds: 62.0
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TCU looks to finish a perfect regular season and make the College Football Playoff for the first time ever.
Kansas State deserves a load of credit for making it this far. They had internal replacements and ran through the gauntlet that is the Big 12 on their way to a 9-3 record and a conference title bid.
TCU is the big surprise of the 2022 NCAA Football season, going undefeated to this point and owning one of the four postseason spots. Sonny Dykes and Max Duggan have chance to complete a perfect regular season with a win in Jerry World.
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State are winners of the last three contests and handily beat state rival Kansas 47-27 at home. The Wildcats have settled into an offense that leans heavily on their rushing game and asks Will Howard to do just enough, and to their credit, it’s been working.
K-state has averaged 42 ppg over that three game stretch and does it with an explosive run game (15th). TCU ranks 103rd in defending explosiveness, so we should expect to see success here on the ground.
They’ve been able to move the chains, and that keeps the Wildcats out of passing downs (102nd). That, combined with their top-30 mark in offensive touchdown rate tells us points likely won’t be at a premium.
The question then becomes, can they stop the TCU offense? The Horned Frogs have lived mostly off of explosiveness but K-state ranks 40th in opponent yards per play. They’ve been better against the rush, but Quentin Johnston looms.
TCU Horned Frogs
To say TCU lives off of explosiveness may actually be an understatement. They’re 5th in the country in overall explosiveness, but most of that comes via the passing game.
Duggan has topped 3000 passing yards, owns a 29:3 TD:Int ratio and has passed CJ Stroud in Heisman odds at the second most likely to win hardware. It’s an incredible breakout for the true senior.
Johnston was held scoreless for the first time in 5 weeks and has 764 yards on the season after accumulating just 114 over his first 4 games. The Kansas State secondary is just 79th in havoc, so it stands to reason TCU should continue to see success. The Horned Frogs are scoring a touchdown on 41% of offensive drives, good for 11th in the country.
The Horned Frogs are below average in defending the run and are 66th in allowing rush explosiveness. K-state should have success here and really, these teams profile very similarly. Will Howard is best from a positive game script though, one that doesn’t ask him to take over the game. If TCU were able to get a lead however….
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas State’s last 7 games when playing Texas Christian
- Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- Texas Christian is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas Christian’s last 7 games when playing Kansas State
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Kansas State profiles very similarly to the Horned Frogs and have found success all season. TCU has allowed a lot of explosiveness this year and could get punished by Deuce Vaughn and the K-state running game.
TCU has been one of the nation’s most explosive teams on offense and has rode that to their 12-0 record. I wonder if they come out and play a similar to game when they were in Waco; they required a game-winning drive to stay undefeated.
This is essentially a home game for TCU but I think I still like K-state in this game getting points. Of course we’d rather have 3 for push equity, but I think the Wildcats can surprise a lot of teams.
In a perfect world, this is a live bet. Wait for the first touchdown to be scored and pick up extra value, but pre game I like getting points.
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs NCAA Betting Pick: K-state +2.5
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