Free NCAAF Pick: Falcons vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos Free NCAA Week 9 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Falcons taking on the Broncos on 10/31 at Waldo Stadium, in Kalamazoo, MI. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Falcons Broncos matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos
Falcons +13 | Broncos -13Here’s why I’m backing a Bowling Green ATS bet below in my Falcons Broncos free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Falcons vs. Broncos Gameday
The Bowling Green Falcons visit the Western Michigan Broncos on Saturday, October 31, 2026, for a Week 9 MAC matchup at Waldo Stadium. Kickoff is 12:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
Bowling Green enters at 2-6 overall and 2-2 in conference play. Eddie George’s Falcons are 1-3 on the road and looking to snap a 2-game skid.
Bowling Green has owned this matchup lately, but Western Michigan has the better record this season.
The Falcons are coming off a 31-24 loss at Buffalo. Defensive struggles continue to put pressure on an inconsistent offense.
Western Michigan is 5-3 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, with a 2-1 home record. Lance Taylor’s Broncos remain in the conference race.
The Broncos fell 45-38 at Toledo, ending a 3-game winning streak. Their offense delivered, but the defense couldn’t finish the job.
Bowling Green has won the previous 3 meetings. Western Michigan has an opportunity to end that streak at home.
It’s Week 9, Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos, hopefully we get a great matchup.
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Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos Odds & Previous Games
Western Michigan is favored by 13.5 points with a -582 moneyline, while Bowling Green comes back at +433. The spread demands a convincing Broncos win.
Bowling Green is 2-3 over its L5, beating Sacramento State 38-10 and Miami (OH) 24-20. The Falcons also lost to South Florida 14-6.
Western Michigan is 3-2 in its L5, defeating Central Michigan 21-14, Kent State 38-7 and Buffalo 20-17. The Broncos also lost to Boise State 32-7.
The most recent meeting came in November 2024, when Bowling Green earned a 31-13 home win.
The Falcons also won 34-10 at Waldo Stadium in 2023 and 13-9 in 2022. Western Michigan hasn’t beaten Bowling Green since a 49-10 victory in 2019.
Recent history favors the visitors, while this season’s results favor the home team. That makes the double-digit spread interesting.
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Broncos Stats
Western Michigan has scored 213 points through 8 games, averaging 26.6 PPG. The Broncos produce 325.9 total YPG, relying heavily on their rushing attack.
Jalen Buckley leads with 634 rushing yards and 8 TDs. He’s dependable when Western Michigan needs to control possession.
The Broncos have generated 1,310 passing yards, averaging 163.8 YPG. Their passing production remains modest.
Western Michigan isn’t built to throw it all afternoon, and its running game rarely apologizes for that.
Defensively, Western Michigan has allowed 163 points, averaging 20.4 PPG. The Broncos have recorded 19 sacks.
They’ve allowed 152.3 rushing YPG, giving them an advantage against Bowling Green’s struggling ground game.
Injuries have tested the Broncos’ depth, including August Johanningsmeier’s absence.
Falcons Stats
Bowling Green has scored 150 points, averaging 18.8 PPG. The Falcons generate 288.0 total YPG, with limited rushing production.
Austyn Dendy leads the backfield with 371 rushing yards and 4 TDs. Bowling Green needs better gains on early downs.
Defensively, the Falcons have surrendered 238 points, averaging 29.8 PPG. They’ve recorded 19 sacks and recovered 6 fumbles.
Bowling Green allows 214.8 rushing YPG, a major concern against Western Michigan’s ground attack.
The Falcons have been stronger against the pass, allowing 171.6 YPG.
Winn Sharp leads the receivers with 25 catches for 305 yards and 1 TD. His production helps sustain drives.
Injuries remain a concern, with Austin Clay among the unavailable players.
Falcons vs. Broncos QB Matchup
Broc Lowry leads Western Michigan with 1,251 passing yards, 10 TDs and 3 interceptions. He’s completed 63.6% of his passes through 8 games.
Lowry has attempted 176 passes, averaging 156.4 passing YPG. His steady approach complements Western Michigan’s rushing attack.
He can also extend plays with his legs when protection breaks down.
Western Michigan doesn’t need Lowry throwing 40 times. Protecting the football and exploiting crowded defenses is his job.
Bowling Green counters with Jay Kastantin, who has thrown for 1,418 yards, 10 TDs and 6 interceptions. He’s completed 130 of 194 attempts.
Kastantin has completed 67.0% of his passes, although turnovers remain a concern. Better decisions against pressure are essential.
His mobility has become a bigger part of the offense, providing another option when passing lanes close.
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Lowry has the ball-security advantage, while Kastantin handles a larger passing workload. Neither can afford careless mistakes.
Western Michigan has the easier path to offensive balance. Bowling Green needs Kastantin to remain patient against pressure.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos bottom line: Lowry has the stronger supporting cast, but Kastantin must keep Bowling Green’s passing attack productive to challenge the Broncos.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos Football Betting Trends
- Bowling Green has gone 5-0 in Over/Under in their last 5 away games from 2025 to 2026.
- Also, the Falcons are 11-4 in Over/Under as underdogs in their last 15 games from 2023 to 2026.
- Bowling Green is 5-1 in Over/Under after a loss in their last 6 games from 2025 to 2026.
- Western Michigan is 23-1 straight up as favorites in their last 24 games from 2023 to 2026.
- Plus, the Broncos have a 9-2 record against the spread in home games over the last 11 games from 2024 to 2026.
- Western Michigan is 4-0 straight up after a loss in their last 4 games from 2025 to 2026.
Falcons Broncos Free Pick: Bowling Green +13.5
Here is my Falcons Broncos free pick: I’m taking Bowling Green +13.5. Western Michigan deserves to be favored, but laying nearly 2 TDs in a MAC game is a different story. The Falcons have lost their L2 by a combined 8 points, and both games were decided late.
They’re not a great football team, but they haven’t been rolling over either.
Western Michigan can be the better team Saturday without being 14 points better on the scoreboard.
The Broncos should move the football, but their offense isn’t built to score in a hurry every possession. A long drive ending in a field goal does nothing to help a double-digit favorite pull away.
Bowling Green doesn’t need an upset.
The Falcons need to avoid cheap turnovers, stay within reach and make Western Michigan play a full 60 minutes.
I’m not paying a premium for the Broncos’ better record when the Falcons have shown they can compete in tight conference games.
Give me the points.
Bowling Green +13.5.
Today’s Week 9 NCAAF Free Pick
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Western Michigan Broncos on X
Halloween Threads 🎃
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— Western Michigan Football (@WMU_Football) October 29, 2026
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