Free NCAA Football Prediction: #9 Baylor vs. #5 Oklahoma State Odds
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College Football Handicapping Analysis: Big 12 Championship Game
Baylor Bears (10-2) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1)
Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Bears +5.5 / Cowboys -5.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Baylor +180 / Oklahoma State -200
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 46.5
Big 12 Championship college football sees the Bears and Cowboys meet at AT&T Stadium at high-noon ET.
The Cowboys are favored by 5.5 points in this Big 12 title game matchup and the status of Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is the hot topic. Bohanon sat out of the season finale against Texas Tech after leaving the Kansas State game with a bad hammy and no one will know if he can go until game time.
Bohanon himself doesn’t even know if he will be good to go by Saturday and his presence, or lack thereof will be a deciding factor for the Bears.
One thing we do know is that the Oklahoma State defense is legit and even if Bohanon goes it will be a long day for the Bears offense regardless.
Baylor already knows what it is like to face this Cowboys defense from when they met on October 2. The Cowboys held Baylor to only 14 points in a 24- 14 win as they held Bohanon to 13 of 27 passing with only 173 passing yards in the game.
Will he or won’t he? That is the question we are all asking as the status of Gerry Bohanon is still in the air mid-week. So far, all know is that he is questionable to go with the hammy, and even if he does get back to the field how much can he push himself?
Have you ever dealt with a hammy injury? A week or two to heal? Yeah, no! That is one tall order and I do believe that Bohanon has to go to give the Bears a chance to win this game.
The line setters are obviously pointing to the Cowboys taking the W, although that -5.5 line doesn’t scream too loudly that Baylor has no chance here.
Should Bohanon not go, we expect to once again see Blake Shapen under center for Coach Dave Aranda’s offense on Saturday. Shapen did an admiral jo running the offense against Texas Tech last weekend but this is not the Red Raiders defense across the field.
Shapen only got sacked once and threw a pair of TD passes without an INT against him, and he hasn’t gotten caught throwing the ball to the wrong team in any of his four appearances this season.
Luckily, Shapen has the 8th ranked running game in the nation to rely on and that mostly goes through Adrian Smith. We know this because the fucking dude has 1,366 rushing yards with 12 trips to the end zone and that is just some stellar stuff!
Oklahoma State Cowboys
All right, the Cowboys defense showed some chinks in that armor last weekend but you go try to slow down Oklahoma for 60 minutes and get back to me! I mean, this team still withstood the Sooner’s onslaught and took the Bedlam win, 37 – 33.
That numbers were not all that much affected because you can still clearly see the Cowboys ranked in the top-11 of every major category we follow.
They are ranked 3rd in total yards allowed (276.3 PG), ranked 5th against the run (91.5 YPG), and the 16.4 points allowed per game puts this program at 6th in the nation. Oh, and let’s not forget the 11th ranked pass defense that holds opponents to just under 185 YPG.
You damn well know that this team would love to see Bohanon out of the lineup so this defense can put pressure on a freshman with no experience in these situations.
There is a nice piece of hardware on the line here and that #5 needs to move up a slot to get into the playoff. A loss here would end that dream without doubt and a convincing win could convince a voter or two that this team belongs in one of the two playoff games.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on field turf.
- Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
- Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
- Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 meetings
- Favorite is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 meetings.
4* Free Bog 12 title game NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
We have to keep an eye on the status of Bohanon, obviously, but will it matter? I don’t think Bohanon or Shapen are going to have any success moving the ball on this Cowboy defense.
You know Coach Gundy will have the line of scrimmage filled with orange and black so the run game doesn’t have any success. Stopping Mr. Smith is no easy task, but Smith can’t do everything if the opposing defense is just set up waiting for him to touch the rock.
I have the defense and the team that is healthy and looking to finish a big job that no one saw them achieving.
4* Free Big 12 Championship NCAA Betting Pick: Cowboys -5.5
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