Free NCAA Football Prediction: Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds
Looking for Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs free picks? College football betting sees the Crimson Tide taking on the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 22nd, 2022, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Crimson Tide Bulldogs free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2)
Date: Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Crimson Tide -21 / Bulldogs +21 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Alabama -1750 / Mississippi State +975
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 61.0
Two SEC West teams face off with the hope of making it to the conference title game.
Alabama lost in a thriller last week in Knoxville in the game of the year. They dropped behind Ole Miss in their half of the SEC standings, but it’s not too late for them to still make the conference title game. Saban will have his team focused and ready to play versus Miss State. Man, what a game November 11th will be in Oxford.
Mississippi State is 5-2 to start the year but they don’t have a quality win outside of beating #17 TAMU. They need to have this week against the Crimson Tide if they want to have a shot at making the SEC title game. A win against Alabama would be a windfall, rocketing them up the AP rankings. A loss last week in Lexington certainly didn’t help their case.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Wowza, what a game last week. The twists and turns would have been better had I not had Bama money, but that’ll be one I store away in my brain for years.
Bryce Young ended up playing, even with a balky shoulder in question. For what it’s worth, I didn’t think he looked limited by the injury and his poise was as good as ever, even down early and deep in his own endzone. They’re still a highly explosive team (11th) and big plays certainly factored in last week’s outcome.
Jahmyr Gibbs is a fantastic talent and has all the traits an NFL team will be looking for in May. Even without Alabama ranking well in offensive line yards, Gibbs rushed for 103 yards and 3 scores. Where his athleticism struck me the most was in the redzone. Without a ton of space to work he still makes defenders miss.
Gibbs gets Mississippi State’s rush defense that has been highly vulnerable, both in keeping opponents off schedule (112th) and in defending explosiveness (73rd).
The number one lesson learned from the game against Tennessee is that Alabama’s corners are toast. Even without facing Cedric Tillman, the Crimson Tide defense allowed 385 yards and 5 scores. Jalin Hyatt on more than one occasion simply out ran the corner on a go route and easily scored.
No one in the country throws more than the Bulldogs and they’re top 20 in passing success rate. Can Alabama turn it around? The playbook is out on their defense. Mississippi State will look to replicate the things Tennessee did well in their win but we also have to recognize that Will Rogers is not Hendon Hooker.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
You could easily argue to me that Mississippi State was unfortunate that Alabama lost the week before this game. The last time Nick Saban lost two consecutive games was 2013, when they lost the Iron Bowl and then a bowl game to Oklahoma. Generally, their staff is on high-alert going into this week so Miss State won’t sneak up on them.
Passes were highly effective against Alabama not just because their corners are bad, but because Tennessee is a balanced offense that can also pound the rock. Mississippi State throws 2 out of every 3 plays, so Alabama can run pass heavy defensive schemes and after just having been burned, will probably employ deep safeties to prevent the homerun shots.
I wonder, in a game where Alabama can focus most of their energy in one spot, can Miss State overcome that? They don’t find themselves in passing downs often (124th) so once it happens, how do they adjust? Kentucky did a nice job shutting down Will Rogers to just 203 passing yards, something Alabama will take notice of.
Mississippi State has been uninspiring in the defensive department and will be susceptible to Alabama’s rush explosiveness (7th). Chris Rodriguez tore up the Bulldogs in Lexington, posting 197 yards and two touchdowns, something Jahmyr Gibbs and Alabama will look to exploit.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games when playing Alabama
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi State
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
4* Free Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Alabama will come out victorious in this matchup but the moneyline odds are prohibitive.
The line is quite high at 21 points. I watched Alabama’s defense give up big pass plays all game, something that Miss State should be able to tap into somewhat. Although, I think after just getting torched through the air, Alabama will come better prepared and schemed against a team that throws 67% of the time.
The Bama rush game matches up well against the Bulldogs, so they should find a lot of success there. Saban knows that after a loss, they face an uphill battle and still need to keep impressing the committee which means a lot of points.
I lean towards the over. Each of these teams does something well offensively that the other team is poor at stopping. Having said that, I’ll be live betting this one. The first 5 minutes of the game will reveal to us what we’re in store for and we can make a more educated bet at that point.
4* Free Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Betting Pick: o61.0
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Score Prediction: Crimson Tide 38 – Bulldogs 24 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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