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Posted on 11/16/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Bet on NFL – San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers (5-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Sunday, November 18th — Jacksonville Municipal, Jacksonville — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Jacksonville -3 (40.5)
Preview: Jacksonville’s rushing attack was unstoppable against a vaunted Tennessee run defense last weekend, while San Diego won in spite of their morbid offense. Can San Diego take control of the AFC West, or will Jacksonville continue to push the Colts for the AFC South title? San Diego heads to the east coast to take on Jacksonville in what promises to be a defensive display.
San Diego Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
The chargers offense may register 23.6 points per game, but they look bad. This team runs in the opposite direction of offensive logic. They need LaDanian Tomlinson to go off to take pressure off of Philip Rivers. It should be the other way around, with Rivers doing what it takes to take the pressure of LDT. Such is life for the ass-backwards San Diego Chargers.
Jacksonville play aggressive and relentless defense, but their passing game gives up 244.3 passing yards per game. For all their size and height, they lack decisive speed in the secondary and that could mean trouble if a linebacker gets caught trying to contain Antonio Gates. Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson are solid weapons, but Rivers lacks the physical tools to take advantage of them.
That leaves LDT trying to take on a physically impressive Jacksonville front-seven. He can beat them around the edges, where they lack speed at defensive-end, but Tomlinson desperately needs Rivers to be more effective if he has any hopes of coming close to last year’s production.
Jacksonville Offense vs. San Diego Defense
Garrard returns to the Jacksonville offense, and will be a much more reliable passer. Still, the Jacksonville offense is predicated on the run. Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, while Fred Taylor is averaging 4.2 yards each time he touches the ball. The problem will be getting off the line against Luis Castillo, who returns from injury to bolster this San Diego front-seven. It is an often overlooked fact that Adrian Peterson failed to explode for yards against San Diego until Castillo went down.
Jacksonville averages 181.9 yards through the air and 142 yards on the ground, making them a balanced attack. However, their receivers lack any serious skill to take out the gritty secondary of the San Diego secondary. However, the Chargers defense, despite its massive reputation, has been shoddy lately. They are giving up a total of 358.4 yards per game, ranking them 27th in the league.
The Jacksonville betting faithful can remain hopeful that Del Rio will refuse to stop running the ball as Mojo and Taylor get plenty of cracks at this front-seven of the Chargers. That should free up enough space for Garrard to take advantage of the height mismatch his receivers have over the corners of San Diego.
NFL Betting Trends
-San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
-San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
-the total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego’s last 10 games on the road
-Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Final Verdict
San Diego has been bad on the road this year, going 1-3 SU and that is a trend the betting investor has to keep track off when placing his dollar down. The Jaguars are in no way a sexy team, but they have been playing very consistent ball, which is more than the Chargers can boast about.
San Diego has more offensive fire power on paper, but if anyone has actually watched them in the past few weeks, this team has absolutely no punch. Rivers is terrible and will be exposed by a greedy Jacksonville defense while the Jacksonville defense runs and rolls right down the field.
NFL Free Pick: San Diego 17 Jacksonville 24
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