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Posted on 12/22/2007 9:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Betting Free Picks – Broncos vs. Chargers
The Chargers are becoming an extremely scary team for the rest of the AFC. LaDanian Tomlinson is going bananas and the rushing attack looks ridiculous right now. The Broncos hope to derail the Chargers slightly, but a 6-1 SU record at home should give San Diego’s betting faithful something to hang on to heading in to the clash on Christmas Eve.
Denver Offense vs. San Diego Defense
As much as everyone loves Jay Cutler, he simply has not impressed when playing away from home. The kid has twelve picks on the season, and is still struggling without Javon Walker out on the field. Brandon Marshall is playing like a man possessed, however, and has virtually bullied the Broncos to 229.8 passing yards per game with his yards after the catch running.
Whomever is rushing the ball for the Broncos will have a tough time against the Chargers. They allow an average of 107.0 yards per game, while Denver has rushed for an average of 124.1 offensive rushing yards, but the front-seven has been playing with inhuman motivation this past few weeks. Denver will struggle moving the chains against this ferocious defense.
San Diego Offense vs. Denver Defense
San Diego averages 126.6 rushing yards per week, and Denver gives up an ugly 140.2 yards on the ground. LaDanian is going ballistic and was so effective against a fairly strong Lions defense last week that he was benched for Sproles and Turner in the second half. The Denver rushing defense should pose no threat to LDT going off, just in time for the fantasy football finals week.
For all the flack Philip Rivers has received, he has done an adequate job of managing the game. Chris Chambers has been a very early Christmas present to this offense, and has brought balance as a bonus to the passing game. The Chargers average 191.8 passing yards, and the Broncos defensive strength is their secondary. Champ Bailey and company hold teams to 196.2 yards per game through the air, but the Chargers won’t be taking many shots downfield so that should be a concern for the Charger’s betting faithful.
NFL Betting Trends
-Denver is 5-17 in its last 22 games
-Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
-San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
-San Diego is 3-3-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Final Verdict
Denver is showing signs of life, but on the road they are terrible and unreliable. In contrast, the Chargers are becoming a very scary team to play. They are surging in to the playoffs with astute authority right now, and the betting investors should be hopping on the bandwagon fast. Taking Denver on the road against a team that has played sensationally at home is going to bring zero holiday cheer in to your betting pockets on Christmas Eve.
Denver Broncos (6-8) vs. San Diego Chargers (9-5)
Monday, December 24th — Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego — 8:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: San Diego -7.5 (46)
NFL Free Pick: Denver 14 San Diego 34
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