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Posted on 11/22/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Week 12 Betting – Broncos at Bears
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The Denver Broncos (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS), who have won two games in a row, will look to keep the momentum going when they visit Soldier Field in Chicago (grass) to play the Bears (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) in a game slated to begin at 4:15 PM ET on Sunday. In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Bears are listed at -1.5, with the total posted at 41 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* DEN has covered four of its last 18 games
* DEN has played four OVERS in its last five games
* DEN has played 12 OVERS in its last 14 games
* DEN has covered seven of its last 11 as an underdog
* DEN has covered two of its last eight road games
* CHI has covered four of its last 16 games
* CHI is 0-4 ATS at home this year
* CHI has won 15 of its last 22 games at home SU
* CHI has lost four of its last five home games SU
* CHI has played 12 of its last 16 home games OVER the total
* CHI is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Denver
* Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
Maybe the team meeting the Denver Broncos had a couple of weeks ago did them all the good in the world, since the team posted impressive wins over Kansas City and Tennessee since then. Actually over the last five weeks, the only major downer was a 44-7 loss in Detroit where Jay Cutler was knocked out of the game. The Denver running game keeps producing, regardless of who is in the lineup. And run defense is one area where the Chicago Bears have wilted this season (surrendering 4.5 ypc). Many attribute it to the loss of tank Johnson, who’s now in Dallas. Whatever the reason, it’s there for all to exploit. And Denver will exploit it, even if neither banged-up Travis Henry nor Selwin Young can go.
Rex Grossman gets the start at quarterback for Chicago, and in light of his history of making unforced errors and being sacked five times by Seattle, he’ll have a headache to deal with in Elvis Dumervil, who’s recorded eight sacks for the Broncos. Cedric Benson had 89 yards against the Seahawks, including a 43-yard touchdown run, but that doesn’t mean he’s dependable; the 3.3 ypc average sticks out like a sore thumb.
Remember when the Bears were fearsome at Soldier Field? That’s was your big brother’s version, not this one. Chicago is 1-3 SU at home and 0-4 ATS, allowing 24 ppg. So even though Denver grabbed only its third cover in ten games on Monday night, we still like the Broncos’ more functional offensive unit and the QB who provides a bit more stability (Cutler 66%, 11 TD, 9 INT). We’ll side with Denver, the 1.5-point underdog in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds.
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: DENVER ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -1.5, Total 41
NOTABLE STAT: The Bears are allowing 4.5 yards a rush, while Denver gains 4.7 yards per carry
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Chicago is 0-4 ATS at Soldier Field this season
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