Auburn vs. Arkansas Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 10/12/2007 5:48:53 PM
NCAA Football Wagering: College Odds Auburn at Arkansas
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AUBURN at ARKANSAS
Oct. 13, 7:45 PM ET
Our top sportsbook – NCAA Football Betting Odds: Arkansas -3
Our top sportsbook – Notable Stat: Auburn’s defense is allowing just 3.2 yards per rushing attempt
KEY BETTING TREND: Auburn is 12-1 SU in its last 13 SEC road games
(For more stats and trends on this weekend’s games, check out our Matchup Tool)
Auburn, after losing to Mississippi State in a game where starting quarterback Brandon Cox was benched in favor of youngster Kodi Burns, has rebounded – forcing a bunch of second-half turnovers in a blowout win over New Mexico State. Going on to Gainesville and beating defending champion Florida and manhandling Vanderbilt. They’re grabbing points at Arkansas, which failed in its two tests against Alabama and Kentucky and has faced lower-level opposition otherwise.
Arkansas has the monster backfield of Darren McFadden, the Heisman Trophy front-runner (6 ypc, 779 yds.) and Felix Jones, who has rushed for over ten yards a carry, in addition to returning a couple of kickoffs for touchdowns. However, quarterback Casey Dick just doesn’t have much ability (53% on the season), which has been a cause for frustration. In fact, the Hogs have to tweak their game plan, often going to McFadden as the QB in the shotgun formation on third downs, where he functions like a single wing tailback. McFadden is nursing some bruised ribs. However, this might limit his usefulness. Last week he fumbled twice, and it was partly attributed to the rib injury.
Because Auburn has proven to be adept at stopping the run (allowing just 3.2 yards a carry), the Tigers may be able to force Dick to go to the air more times than Houston Nutt may be comfortable with, especially with top WR Marcus Monk likely out. Of course, the defensive front will have to do better than it did last year, when the Razorbacks rushed for 279 yards in a 27-10 win. Auburn should be boosted by the return of linebacker Tray Blackmon and top defensive end Quentin Groves from injury, but there are other injury concerns on defense.
In last year’s loss, Auburn had only 60 net yards rushing but certainly has a chance to improve on that figure, with Ben Tate having gained some valuable experience and Brad Lester back from a suspension he had been serving for academic difficulties (77 yards vs. Vandy). Cox has actually been consistent lately (44 for 62 and one INT in last three games). Even though there are a lot of people banged up and Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville has had to do quite a bit of shuffling on the special teams, the Tigers have nonetheless gone on an encouraging mini-roll. One would question, from the technical standpoint, whether this is such a daunting task for Auburn, which has chalked up outright wins in 12 of its last 13 games as an SEC visitor.
Even though the Hogs have a very scary running back tandem, we’re gladly on the take with Auburn, which is sharper at the moment and playing well with Cox, at least showing two dimensions on offense.
JAY’S PLAY: AUBURN *** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com still has some of that college spirit. He is a regular contributor to the Top Sportsbooks Locker Room)
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