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Posted on 11/30/2007 1:34:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Football Betting – San Francisco at Carolina
The San Francisco Forty-Niners (3-8 SU, 3-7-1 ATS), who may be still celebrating its first win after an eight-game losing streak, visit Charlotte to play the sputtering Carolina Panthers (4-7 SU & ATS) in a game scheduled for Sunday at 1 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium (grass). In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, Carolina is listed at -3, with the over/under posted at 35 points.
That total is a low figure, for sure, but we will explore whether there exists a online betting opportunity therein.
First, let’s take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED pro football stats and NFL betting trends concerning this matchup:
* SF has played seven of its 11 games UNDER the total this season
* SF has averaged 13.6 ppg in 2007 (32nd in NFL)
* SF has averaged 235 yards per game this season
* SF has averaged 17.2 yards per point this season
* SF has played three UNDERS in its last four games
* CARO has averaged 15.7 ppg this season (27th in NFL)
* CARO has played eight of its 11 games UNDER the total this season
* CARO has played seven UNDERS in its last eight games
* CARO has averaged 18.5 yards per point this season
* Ten of the last 12 meetings have gone OVER the total
* Four of the last five meetings in Charlotte have gone OVER the total
We certainly acknowledge San Francisco’s offensive “explosion” last Sunday against Arizona, as Trent Dilfer passed for 256 yards and the Niners tallied 37 points. We don’t want to rain on that scoring parade, but San Francisco took advantage of four Arizona turnovers as well (which led to 20 points). I mean, is this all of a sudden a different Niner team than the one that, for example, gained an average of 232 yards a game for the previous four? Or 221 yards for the entire year? We realize that adding former USC and San Diego State coach Ted Tollner as an assistant has helped breathe some life into things, but might be judicious to see another run over the track with this kind of performance to declare the offensive problem solved. Bad teams are marked with inconsistency, so it wouldn’t surprise us at all to see Dilfer go back to misfiring.
Of course, the other component to this is the Carolina attack, which has produced all of 50 points in the last five games. The Panthers, who have not covered at home in the last seven tries (i.e., haven’t played nearly well enough to win), have scored 54 points in Bank of America Stadium this season (10.8 ppg). And it is not hard to understand why, considering the musical chairs that have been going on at the quarterback position. Jake Delhomme, injured early on, has given way to Vinny Testaverde and David Carr, both of whom have completed just 54% and neither of whom has cracked six yards an attempt.
The problem is, San Francisco has not played very well against the Panthers, covering just one of the last ten meetings. If that pattern continues; if they’re going to be bested here, it’s going to be on offense, and not necessarily by being burned on defense.
We’re bucking a trend here, I guess, as ten of the last 12 meetings have gone over the total. But the game with the Cardinals was only Frisco’s fourth “over” in 11 games this season, while Carolina has now played seven unders in eight games, which encompasses the period Delhomme has not been available to them.
Even though we appreciate the new confidence in the Niner offense, we don’t know whether that will have its enduring effect, and we can’t see Carolina getting things together with the ball in its hands. So we’ll lean to a figure “under” the total of 35 points, as listed in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds.
NFL betting odds: Carolina -3, Total: 35
NOTABLE STAT: Carolina has scored 10 ppg over the last five
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Carolina has played seven unders in eight games since Delhomme’s injury
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 35 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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